Casey Mize Looks Like the Pitcher That Made Him Go First Overall
Casey Mize was in prime form on Tuesday night, and he could end up being an extremely valuable asset in the Detroit Tigers' rotation.
Around this time last year, the talk around Casey Mize was completely different. The No. 1 overall pick from 2018 was returning to the mound having pitched just 10 innings over the past two seasons and was looking to lock down the final rotation spot.
Mize ultimately won the fifth rotation spot, but he looked pretty pedestrian throughout the season. A mid-4.00s ERA with less than a 7.00 K/9 is perfectly fine for being a No. 5 starter, but that’s hardly the pitcher the Detroit Tigers thought they were getting when they drafted Mize.
Fast forward several months, and the version of Mize that we are seeing now looks like a completely different pitcher.
The pitch to contact, groundball pitcher who lived and died solely on where, or who, those groundballs were hit to is no longer on the mound. At least not through spring training, and definitely not on Tuesday night in Seattle.
Showing Off in Seattle
Not to sound dramatic, but even the most casual fan could tell a difference in Mize on Tuesday night compared to last season. No matter where your understanding of pitch shapes or advanced metrics stand, your eyes alone could make you say “woah, that was that?!”
We saw a glimpse of Mize’s improvements throughout spring training, but seeing it on display against a full roster of major leaguers — on the road, no less— checks another box, proving that it was not fool’s gold.
After surrendering a single to the first batter of the game, Mize struck out Mariners superstar Julio Rodríguez on three pitches with strike three being a slider that started in the middle of the zone and broke well outside the zone, causing Rodríguez to swing-and-miss.
Mize’s movement on his slider was noticeable, adding over an inch of horizontal break and vertical break from last season. The results speak for themselves, as he generated a 40% whiff rate, which was up from his 22% mark last season. Mize also worked his fastball at the top of the zone effectively, which helped setup his breaking pitches.
On Tuesday, we saw career-best induced vertical break (IVB) numbers for both his sinker and four seamer. Getting over 18 inches of IVB on his fastball, which sat 94 mph, led to more swing-and-miss than we have seen in the past.
Mize also used his splitter effectively. It played up thanks to his improved four-seamer, causing his downward-moving splitter to miss more bats (71.4% whiff).
The graphic above, thanks to our friends at Baseball Savant, really helps paint the picture of how good Mize was in his first outing.
Not only did he generate 15 whiffs, but the contact he gave up was not the type that does much damage. Seeing only two hard-hit balls (neither of which were lifted), two pop outs, and three soft flyouts was very encouraging.
Mize finished the night going 5.2 innings with one hit, no runs allowed, three walks, and six strikeouts on only 82 pitches. Considering it was his first start of the season manager, AJ Hinch elected to pull him at only 82 pitches, but expect him to work deeper into games as the season continues.
What This Means For the Tigers
Let me be clear: This is not a reaction to a box score from one game, but instead a reaction to legitimate changes in pitch shapes and movement that very well could lead to the best version of Mize that we have seen.
Now fully healthy, perhaps he needed to be another year removed from his injury to finally be comfortable on the mound.
What we do know is that Mize can produce these results. Sample size is not needed for what is possible, but it is needed for what might be probable going forward. Is a revamped Mize that generates more swing-and-miss, higher strikeout numbers, and less balls in play possible? Absolutely.
We all feel comfortable with Tarik Skubal being in the elite category. Jack Flaherty as a No. 2 gives the Tigers another high-end arm. Reese Olson showed a lot of promise and development last season, and he looks to be at least a reliable arm with upside.
The last two spots in the rotation are filled by a top-end prospect in Jackson Jobe, and what was seen as an average-level pitcher in Casey Mize.
If these changes hold true, the Tigers now have another arm with a floor you feel comfortable with, but a much higher celling than what he showed last season. If Jobe struggles, you have less worries with Mize looking like a better pitcher.
I’d say Detroit also has a little more wiggle room. If Jobe does struggle, or needs some variation of an innings restriction, the Tigers are in a more stable position. Alex Cobb does not need to be rushed back, and Keider Montero does not need to be forced into the rotation because of an uninspiring Casey Mize.
Final Thoughts
Of course, I’m getting a bit ahead of myself. But it’s hard not to. Mize was the first pick of what was the beginning of a long and painful rebuild. A rebuild that saw a 47-win team, some embarrassing baseball, and a magical run to the postseason.
Mize, in some ways, is the first face of what was, or is, seen as the next wave of competitive baseball in Detroit. It has not gone to plan, but the story is far from over.
Seeing him look as good as he did Tuesday night in Seattle was refreshing, especially considering the struggles he’s been through on the mound at times and the injury battles he’s endured.
Let’s hope this version is here to stay, because if it is, the Tigers have another weapon in their rotation and one that could help propel this team back into the postseason.
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