Buy or Sell: Hot Starts Through 20 Games
Small sample sizes are a playground for liars and optimists alike, but the underlying metrics tell us which of these scorching April starts are built to last through the summer.
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The first three weeks of a season are basically a fever dream. We see guys hitting .400 and our brains try to turn 70 plate appearances into a season-long trajectory. But we’re deep enough into April now that Statcast is starting to spit out some truths.
On Wednesday’s Just Baseball show, Jack McMullen and Aram Leighton took a look at eight of the loudest starts from the first stretch of 2026 to see who is actually evolving and who is just enjoying a nice run of BABIP luck.
Consider this article a detailed extension and contemplation of their analysis. Let’s get right into it.
Jordan Walker – RF, Cardinals
Once billed the St. Louis Cardinals’ top prospect and one of the sport’s top prospects overall, right fielder Jordan Walker, a 6-foot-6, 250-pound exit-velocity king from Stone Mountain, Georgia, spent each of his first three MLB seasons still trying to figure out his own limbs.
At 20 years old, in 2023, Walker broke into the bigs and showed promise offensively, hitting 16 home runs and accumulating an above average .786 OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage).
And yet, he finished with a -0.1 bWAR (wins above replacement – an all-encompassing stat that estimates how many more wins a player contributes to their team over a season compared to a “replacement-level” player), in part due to porous outfield defense.
Between 2024 and 2025, Walker bounced up and down between Triple-A and totaled 162 MLB games played, hitting a touch over .210 with 11 home runs and 177 strikeouts, culminating in a -2.5 bWAR.
Personally, I was never a fan of how the organization handled Walker’s first three seasons. He came up too early, the runway was never long enough for him to dig his cleats in and get comfortable, and frankly, his confidence was shot.
What blows my mind, though, is how quick everyone was to give up on him as a potential star, let alone an everyday MLB player — at 23 years old!
Well, he and the Cardinals got to work this past offseason, and through the first couple weeks, Walker is beginning to look like the guy that was touted.
The real story isn’t just that he’s hitting the ball hard (95.3 mph average exit velocity), he’s always done that. It’s that he stopped hitting it into the dirt. His groundball rate has plummeted from the high 40s to 31%.
When you have 99th-percentile bat speed and you finally start elevating, you get eight homers, to lead all of baseball, in 18 games. He’s still going to swing and miss, the 28% strikeout rate isn’t going anywhere, but the Cardinals adjusted his launch angle, and the league is currently paying the price.
He also looks extremely comfortable against left-handed pitching, as he has collected three home runs and two doubles in 19 at-bats against southpaws – good for a 1.376 OPS.
Baseball Savant indicates a bit of negative regression is coming against offspeed and breaking pitches, but he is actually performing worse against fastballs right now than the advanced analytics project.
The concern here is lineup protection and the Cardinals’ long-term competitiveness. The Cardinals are seeing what they have this year with an inexperienced but exciting young core, and because Walker is the guy that has stepped up so far, opposing staffs will be quick to key in on him and adjust.
How will Walker adjust back come July and August, and will he be as motivated if the Cardinals fall out of contention? These are questions he will have to answer with his play on the field.
Verdict: I am selling a 35-plus home run season. I am buying Walker as an emerging star. He turns 24 in May. This is the start of something beautiful. 2027 will be when he puts it all together for a full season.
Andy Pages – OF, Dodgers
Naturally, the guy who hits near the back of the order for the back-to-back defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers currently leads all of baseball in batting average (.409) and RBIs (20), to go along with five big flys. Andy Pages, the 25-year-old Dodger center fielder and former top prospect, was honestly excellent in the 2025 regular season.
He compiled a 3.8 bWAR with 27 doubles, 27 home runs, a .774 OPS and awesome defense. The postseason was troublesome. Pages slumped his way to a 4-for-51 October with zerp walks and 11 strikeouts. Clearly, that poor performance fueled a flame because he has been on a tear to begin 2026.
And it’s not all that surprising. This is what the Dodgers do so well – they hold on to and develop top prospects, like Pages, instead of trading them, and then have them reap the rewards of hitting at the bottom of the lineup behind established stars so that they can perform without the pressure of having to be the guy.
While opposing staffs are concerned with how to get Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez out, young guys like Pages feast on fastballs and mistakes.
Pages’ 58% hard-hit rate is elite, but the approach is still a bit chaotic. He chases a lot (32%) and doesn’t walk. Last year, he was the king of the “hot month, cold month” cycle, and I suspect we’re seeing the peak of that right now.
He’s a plus defender, so the 5.0 bWAR dream is alive and well, but don’t expect him to stay in the .400s with a near .700 slug once the league starts feeding him a steady diet of sliders in the dirt.
Verdict: I am buying a 5.0 bWAR season. The plentiful opportunities to hit with men in scoring position will continue, and the defense is elite enough that he’ll be valuable even when the bat inevitably goes through a three-week freeze.
Brice Turang – 2B, Brewers
Brice Turang already has the 2024 Platinum Glove on his mantle. If he’s actually going to hit for power, like he showed when he hit 12 home runs with an OPS north of .900 between August and September of last year, he’s a superstar.
Turang is getting better and better each year. When he broke into the big leagues in 2023, he finished with a .322 expected slugging rate (xSLG), which climbed to .346 in 2024 and .429 in 2025. To start 2026, he boasts a .533 xSLG. By the same token, he went from a 8.1% walk rate in 2023, to 8.5% in 2024, 10% in 2025, and now 17.6% walk rate to begin 2026. He’s suddenly in the 94th percentile for discipline.
He isn’t a loud hitter in terms of bat speed (32nd percentile), but he’s squaring everything up (87th percentile) and producing 90th-percentile average exit velocities. If he keeps walking, continues to elevate his power, and remains an elite baserunner, he’s a five-WAR player floor.
He’s 26 years old, entering his prime, and I’m starting to get excited about the idea of a perennial 20-home run, 30-stolen base guy. Sheesh.
Verdict: I am selling that he clears 23 home runs, as posed on the Just Baseball Show. I am buying that this dude is the total package.
Ben Rice – 1B, Yankees
The 27-year-old Dartmouth alumni is proving 2025 was no fluke. Ben Rice is currently a Statcast darling: 99th-percentile exit velocity and 95th-percentile barrel rate. He looks like the classic Yankees “found money” lefty bat.
The problem is that Aaron Boone doesn’t necessarily trust him against lefties, opting for 38-year-old Paul Goldschmidt on occasion to platoon.
The stat Aram and Jack discussed for the buy-sell opportunity on Ben Rice was whether or not he could clear a 140 wRC+. This stat stands for Weighted Runs Created Plus. In other words, a measure of a hitter’s total offensive value, adjusted for ballpark and era. It equals 100 for league average; every point above 100 is a percentage point better, and below is worse.
So, can Ben Rice be 40% better than league average at the plate?
Well, let’s get into it.
For reference, only 10 players achieved a wRC+ of 140 or higher in 2025: Freddie Freeman, Michael Busch, Pete Alonso, Ketel Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, Cal Raleigh, George Springer, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge.
It’s notable that Rice finished 22nd last year with a 133 wRC+, playing in 138 games, totaling 28 doubles, 26 home runs, 50 walks, 100 strikeouts, a .255 AVG, and an .836 OPS.
The Baseball Savant page is still sexy. He’s crushing baseballs at 99th-percentile clips in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, and his chase rate is still excellent. The biggest difference so far from last year to this year is that he is whiffing far more, translating to heavy strikeout rate.
On the flip side of that, he is walking at an insane 20% clip to begin this year, up 11.6% from last year.
Assuming he continues to force Boone’s hand and get more and more at-bats against lefties as the season progresses, the advanced numbers suggest Rice is going to keep smashing the ball. If the walk rate can stay elevated, he absolutely can be a 140 wRC+ guy.
The batting average will dip below .300. It’s currently at a gaudy .327, but the slugging should carry. He also hits fourth in a lineup with Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, so there will always be opportunities to score and drive in runs.
Verdict: I am going to say he falls just short of a 140 wRC+ due to batting average regression and the 27% strikeout rate.
Wilyer Abreu – RF, Red Sox
Abreu is sneakily turning into one of the most well-rounded players in baseball. His pure hitability and defense simply do not get enough love. He’s already worth 1.0 fWAR because he pairs 98th percentile throwing arm value with six Defensive Runs Saved (leads all of baseball), and only trails Cam Smith and Fernando Tatis Jr. among right fielders in Outs Above Average (OAA).
Abreu was a 3.1 fWAR player in 132 games in 2024, and he’s already sitting on a 1.0 fWAR through the first three weeks of 2026. At the plate, he’s narrowed his focus, whiffing less and hitting the ball harder (51% hard-hit rate). Even when current 179 wRC+ inevitably drops to 120-130, his glove keeps his value so high.
Verdict: I am going to buy that he is a four-plus WAR player because his emerging consistency is forming the best all-around right fielder in the American League right now not named Judge. I think he could hit a career best .275+, but I don’t think he clears 25 home runs.
CJ Abrams – SS, Nationals
We love CJ Abrams, but we’re not getting our hopes up. We’ve seen this movie before. Abrams is historically a first-half hero who falls off a cliff after the All-Star break. He’s been a consistent three-plus WAR player with an OPS around .750 for three years.
That’s all fine and dandy, but he needs to crack the next phase of his maturation and become a top-billed star. Right now, he’s in the 100th percentile for batting run value.
The 13% strikeout rate (90th percentile) and 11.7% walk rate (66th percentile) are the numbers that give me hope. For context, he’s been between a 19-21% strikeout rate and a 5.2-6.6% walk rate his first three seasons.
He’s making way more contact and his expected batting average (xBA) of .332 says this is sustainable. The defense is still a mess (-2 OAA), which caps his WAR ceiling, but the Nats are friskier for postseason contention than they have been since he arrived in Washington, D.C., which should spark better play through the dog days of summer and into September.
Through his first three seasons, he’s landed at wRC+ of 91, 106, and 107. This is a very talented and toolsy 25-year-old, and a former top prospect, so he has the goods to put together an epic season. The .371 AVG and 1.191 OPS will not hold, but this guy packs a punch into his 6-foot, 190-pound frame, and we may be seeing the start of him putting it all together.
Verdict: Buy, buy, buy. This is the year he finally clears a 115 wRC+, and he may do so with flying colors.
Kevin McGonigle – SS, Tigers
The Tigers just handed a 21-year-old rookie a $150 million, eight-year extension after 19 games. That tells you everything you need to know about what they see, and my eyes agree.
McGonigle doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard (33rd-percentile exit velocity), but he is a contact savant. A 12.9% whiff rate for a rookie, well, really anyone, is unheard of. He’s 5-foot-9, finds holes and works counts. In a Tigers lineup that has a lot of three-true-outcome guys like Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, McGonigle is the glue.
It remains to be seen if he has the arm and range to remain at shortstop, but you know he will make strides and give it his all everyday. He might not slug .500, but he looks to be a pure .300 hitter who walks (15.8%) and delivers consistent output. He has the approach, and seemingly, the mental fortitude of a seasoned veteran, which creates an extremely high floor.
Verdict: I’m buying that this cat really is a full-grown Tiger and that he will be the AL Rookie of the Year. Chase DeLauter of the Cleveland Guardians will draw plenty of attention with his pop, but McGonigle will have fewer and less-prolonged cold stretches.
Brandon Lowe – 2B, Pirates
Lowe has seven homers, which is great. But look under the hood and things get scary.
He’s in the 10th percentile, yes, tenth, for average exit velocity. Now, greats like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have produced Hall of Fame numbers throughout their career without generating a ton of bat speed or flashy exit velocities, but he is basically “Just Enough” Brandon Lowe right now.
He’s hitting fly balls that are barely clearing the fence in the right-field porch at PNC. All the power to him for catering his approach to his new home at PNC Park, and he may continue to pepper those right field seats, but his whiff rate is in the bottom five percent of the league. In a lineup without much protection at all, this has “massive regression” written all over it.
I don’t mean to come off so negative. At 5-foot-9 and 31 years old, Lowe exemplifies what’s great about our game. Do not underestimate him, because he will go yard on your team in a crucial moment. He hit a career-high 39 home runs back in 2021 with the Rays and hit 31 long balls last year.
Verdict: The question posed on the Just Baseball Show was whether Lowe could crack 40 home runs. The change of scenery appears to be great, and he is using his new home to his advantage, but 40 dingers is a lot, and I don’t see it with 85.2 MPH exit velocity, a 10.4% barrel rate, a 41.7% hard-hit rate, a 21.1% squared-up rate and a 32.6% chase rate.
His 2021 season included a 14% barrel rate and a 43.1% hard-hit rate, and he still fell short of 40 then, when he was 26 years old, as opposed to 31.
All stats were taken prior to play on April 17.
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