Who Is Going To Get Starts for the Brewers in the Playoffs?

After the Milwaukee Brewers dealt ace Corbin Burnes away in the offseason, expectations seemed to be low for the 2023 NL Central champs entering the season, especially when it came to the starting rotation.

But the Brewers took the NL Central by storm in 2024. After Game 162 wrapped up on Sunday, they found themselves as the only team to sport a double-digit lead over the second-best team in their division, holding a 10-game lead over both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.

There have been several reasons as to why the Brewers have found the success they have in 2024.

Their bullpen is a top-class unit this season, sitting in the top five in MLB in fWAR, ERA, WHIP and AVG against, and ranking within the top 10 league-wide in FIP, BB/9 and BABIP, according to FanGraphs. Names like Devin Williams and Trevor Megill lead the way.

They’ve also found themselves possessing a top-10 offense this season in terms of wRC+, OPS and AVG.

But the starting pitching situation for the Brew Crew in 2024 has been subpar, to say the least. It does not necessarily reflect the 93-win feat they just accomplished.

Their rotation ranks 25th in MLB in fWAR, tied for 16th in ERA, 25th in FIP, tied for 21st in WHIP and 20th in AVG against.

And apart from Freddy Peralta, they lack the top-end talent that many other postseason teams possess within their starting rotations.

So heading into October, let’s look at who should be making starts for Milwaukee.

Freddy’s Still the Guy for Game 1

There’s no reason for GM Matt Arnold, manager Pat Murphy, and the rest of the Brewers’ staff to overthink who takes the ball in a Game 1 situation. It has to be Freddy Peralta.

After Burnes got dealt, and following Brandon Woodruff‘s shoulder injury, Peralta was handed the keys to the rotation in 2024. And all-in-all, he’s put together a solid campaign.

In 173.2 innings across 32 starts, Peralta is sporting a 3.68 ERA, with a 1.21 WHIP and a .221 AVG against.

His 27.6% K-rate fares very favorably amongst MLB pitchers, placing him in the 81st percentile, while he ranks even better in terms of inducing whiffs. A whiff rate of 31.0% puts him in the 87th percentile of big league arms.

As the National League three-seed, the Brewers will have to have to play a best-of-three Wild Card series. And in short series situations like this, getting your foot out in front with a dominant swing-and-miss arm is usually a recipe for success.

This makes it a no-brainer that Peralta is the guy who puts the Brewers in the best position to take Game 1, thus giving them two shots to take the series in Games 2 and 3.

And with how questionable the rotation looks beyond him, having two shots at a series victory might be necessary.

Tobias Myers Is the Best of the Band of Unproven Arms

Calling Tobias Myers “unproven” sounds a bit harsh considering the great season he’s put together. But the term is only meant to capture the fact that he’s a rookie who is about to navigate uncharted territory.

In 138.0 innings across 27 appearances, 25 of which were starts, the 26-year-old has pitched to the tune of a 3.00 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP.

Myers sports a pitch mix that features four pitches which he throws 10% or more of the time. Of his primary offerings, his four-seam fastball is the one he uses the most (40.1% usage) and has seen decent results. Opponents are hitting a modest .239 off of it, and it’s been his primary putaway pitch with a 22.0% putaway rate.

He’s complemented that with a pair of secondary pitches that have produced outstanding results this season.

After a rough month of April (4.50 ERA in two starts) and a even rougher month of May (5.94 ERA in five outings and four starts), Myers has posted monthly ERAs at 3.03 or lower in each month since then.

With a good pitch mix, a low walk rate (77th percentile at 6.3%), and overall consistently great results this season, Myers offers the Brewers the best opportunity to win from a starting pitching standpoint, outside of their ace Peralta, despite his rookie status.

Colin Rea Has Been Better Than His Recent Results

By first glance, Colin Rea is entering the postseason on the worst note you can think of. In the month of September, he posted an 8.31 ERA and 1.94 WHIP across six outings, four of which were starts.

He surrendered 35 hits and 20 earned runs in 21.2 innings of work this month. But 21 of those hits and 15 of those earned runs were isolated to two bad starts, one on Sept. 11 in San Francisco where gave up 10 earned runs on 11 hits, and the other in his most recent outing in Game 162 on Sunday against the Mets where he gave up 5 earned runs on 10 hits.

But looking at Rea’s numbers before the regular season’s final month, they are a lot more palatable.

In 146.0 innings of work across 26 total outings and 23 starts up until Aug. 31, Rea posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and a .238 AVG against.

While Rea ranks below the 35th percentile in almost every advanced metric across the board, including K-rate (19th percentile at 19.0%), chase rate (9th percentile at 24.5%), whiff rate (7th percentile at 19.1%) and average exit velo (18th percentile at 90.1 mph) among other statistics, it’s hard to argue against the overall stat line he’s managed to post despite this.

He’s managed a modest but respectable 4.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 167.2 innings on the mound this season.

And other than September, Rea did not to post a monthly ERA above 4.22.

With such a deep bullpen to fall back on and Rea’s experience either making shorter starts or playing a bulk relief role behind an opener, he doesn’t need to be relied on to go deep into a game, allowing the Brewers to get creative with their strengths.

This leads me to believe Rea’s versatility should make him a part of this postseason rotation.

Which Poor Performing Veteran Gets the Starting Nod?

With three postseason starters accounted for, this leaves a couple of overall disappointing options for Milwaukee to decide between for the final spot in the postseason rotation: Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale.

Both of these in-season trade acquisitions haven’t been the real spark the Brewers likely thought they could be when acquiring them.

While his 4.55 ERA in 11 starts as Brewer may look better than his 5.01 ERA in 19 starts as a Cincinnati Red, I’m sure this isn’t what the Brewers had in mind when they acquired Montas at this year’s trade deadline.

And other than his fastball velocity (69th percentile, 95.3 mph) and his offspeed run value (65th percentile, +1) Montas sits under the 50th percentile across the board statistically:

Civale, who Milwaukee acquired from Tampa Bay on July 3, also struggled to make an immediate impact.

While better than the 5.07 ERA and 1.38 WHIP he had with the Rays before making the move to Wisconsin, Civale’s 4.29 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in his opening three starts with his new team weren’t exactly the output the Brewers likely had in mind.

But since then, Civale has noticeably outperformed Montas in the last two months. This means he’s entering October on a very good note.

From an overall season standpoint, Civale has simply had the better year between the two. He’s posted a 4.36 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in 161.0 innings of work across 31 starts, compared to the high 4.00s ERA (4.84) and 1.37 WHIP of Montas in 150.2 innings across 30 starts.

For this reason, I lean towards Civale to be the guy to round out this Brewers postseason rotation and nab that final spot.

So, How Will the Brewers’ Playoff Rotation Unfold?

Here’s I feel how Milwaukee’s postseason rotation should play out:

Now, of the four starters on this October staff, Peralta is the only one who instills confidence that he could pitch deep into a ball game.

But that top-end bullpen is there to support the Brewers starters in a variety of ways. Whether it be through bulk relief roles, taking on the opening innings, or just being utilized in the traditional handoff-style bullpen manner, the ‘pen allows this team to get creative and utilize an otherwise uninspiring starting staff to their strengths knowing there’s something to fall back on.

This leaves a sense of optimism from a pitching standpoint, even if it’s not to the same degree as other postseasons teams have when it comes to their pitching situations.

Pair all of this with a top-10 caliber offense, and suddenly the Brewers have all the ability to put their 93-win total to the test and make a deeper postseason run than the average fan might expect in 2024.