Brandon Lowe and the Pirates Make Perfect Long-Term Sense
If the Pirates are serious about contending in 2027, they should go all-in and extend Brandon Lowe.
During the 2025-26 MLB offseason, one of the more prominent rumors around the baseball industry was that the Pittsburgh Pirates were looking to increase payroll. Given their previous hesitance to spend, this type of commitment to the team by way of external pieces was nothing short of unprecedented.
They ended up making a flurry of moves by Opening Day, with arguably the most pivotal move taking place on December 19th, as the Pirates pulled off a blockbuster trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. In this deal, the Pirates managed to acquire outfielder Jake Mangum, flamethrowing reliever Mason Montgomery, and two-time All-Star second baseman Brandon Lowe.
Fast forward to the end of the 2026 season, and Brandon Lowe is putting the bow on a tremendous season. He’s set the Pirates’ single-season record for a second baseman, generated nearly 5.0 fWAR, and been a leader of the club’s much-improved offense. In every sense of the expression, this has been a historic year for the 32-year-old.
However, while this is true, there’s a much bigger topic looming than his on-field production: Lowe is a free agent at the end of this season. Although the Pirates have been more willing to spend as of late, a long-term extension is still far from a reality, and fans have been left wondering if a deal could actually take place.
Both parties come together to form a perfect long-term pairing. Lowe brings consistent power in the middle of a lineup that really benefits from his presence, and the Pirates bring a promising young core capable of making the playoffs in 2027 with a few small tweaks.
The only question surrounding this pair is whether or not ink will be put to paper and a deal will be finalized. It should be their top priority heading into this upcoming offseason, as the two are truly a match made in heaven.
Lowe’s 2026 Successes
As previously mentioned, Lowe’s 2026 season has been nothing short of a success, and exactly what the Pirates hoped for when they traded for him back in December. It’s not a stretch to say that this has been the best second base season in Pirates history, and it’s not hard to understand why when looking at the numbers.
Through 148 games this year, Lowe has slashed .262/.332/.493 with 34 homers, 95 RBI, and a 121 wRC+, sitting near the top of the team’s offensive leaderboard in most categories. On top of that, Lowe has been worth 4.9 fWAR this season, making him one of just two second basemen in the sport to surpass 4.5 fWAR.
When looking back at recent production from Pirates hitters, few players can come close to Lowe’s 2026 season. Not only has he set the franchise record for most home runs in a single season by a second baseman, but he’s also become the first Pirates hitter since Josh Bell in 2019 to reach 30 in a single season.
Historically, the Pirates have not been a team that hits for much power, and Lowe’s presence in the lineup has helped change that completely. Dating back to 2010, the Pirates have only had five 30-homer seasons, which really speaks to the impact he’s had this year offensively.
They’ve also set a new team home run record with 182 (as of September 24th), and they’ve gone from last in the sport in homers to ranking 13th in 2026.
Lowe’s production from the second base position has been deeply valuable and almost irreplaceable when looking at other players around the league. Aside from being one of only two second basemen with over 4.5 fWAR, he ranks first in homers by 11, and he ranks in the top five at his position in nearly every major offensive category.
Given this, it’s no surprise that Lowe has consistently been regarded as a top-five free agent heading into this offseason, as he’ll be a coveted asset on the open market, and rightfully so. But this production is exactly why he should remain in Pittsburgh long-term, as the club should be eager to get a deal across the finish line.
The Reason To Ink a Long-Term Deal
With any contract around the sport, there are two sides to the deal. It has to make sense for both the player signing the contract and the team that is committing generational wealth to one player. In this case, a legitimate argument can be made for both sides, as a long-term partnership makes a ton of sense.
Lowe’s Perspective
From Lowe’s perspective, there are plenty of reasons to consider staying in Pittsburgh beyond simply the money.
At 32 years old, Lowe is entering free agency at a fascinating point in his career. He has already established himself as one of the most productive power hitters in the game and at his position, but this offseason could represent his best and potentially final opportunity to cash in on a long-term deal. Coming off a season in which he’s produced nearly 5.0 fWAR and 30-plus home runs, his market value will likely never be higher.
Pittsburgh can offer Lowe something that not every team on the open market can: a guaranteed role as one of the central pieces of a lineup that is trending in the right direction. When preparing to settle into a long-term deal, ensuring that the team is heading in the right direction is a very important factor in making a decision like this, and that’s exactly what the Pirates have proven in 2026.
With young, budding stars like Konnor Griffin and Esmerlyn Valdez, combined with a four-headed monster in the rotation that can compete with the strongest groups in MLB, Pittsburgh’s future is quite bright. Lowe’s continued presence in Pittsburgh could be one of the final remaining pieces to help this team reach October baseball yet again, and this time, for multiple consecutive seasons.
Rather than entering free agency and potentially joining a club where he is simply another veteran addition, Lowe could remain in Pittsburgh as a foundational piece of the offense.
There’s also the matter of stability. Lowe has been fully embraced by the Pirates fanbase this season, and he’s been on record expressing a desire to potentially stay in the Steel City. The Pirates have also embraced his charity efforts from the moment he was dealt in the offseason, helping him plant roots in the community and get involved, which is something he and his family have been vocal about appreciating and being passionate about.
Of course, money will ultimately be a major factor. A player of Lowe’s caliber is going to have opportunities elsewhere, and it would be difficult for him to ignore the possibility of maximizing his earnings in free agency. But that doesn’t necessarily mean Pittsburgh can’t compete.
If the Pirates are willing to offer Lowe a contract that reflects his production while providing meaningful security into his late 30s, there is a reasonable path toward keeping him in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates’ Perspective
For the Pirates, the argument is even more straightforward: they’ve finally found the type of middle-of-the-order hitter they’ve been missing for years, and letting him walk immediately after his best season would create another hole that would be difficult to fill.
As things currently stand, the Pirates only have a few areas they’ll have to shore up this winter to compete in 2027. For example, they’ll likely need a little more bullpen help, and potentially another catcher and starting pitcher, but not much else outside of that. If they let Lowe walk, they suddenly have to figure out how to replace over 30 homers and nearly 5.0 fWAR of production overnight.
To make matters worse, this free-agent class is relatively weak for what the Pirates need to accomplish, and they have little to no internal options to help replace Lowe if he walks. The Pirates will essentially be pigeonholed into trading for another piece, which will have challenges of its own, especially with the looming lockout.
Going one step further, having to replace Lowe will force the team to commit resources to replacing his production that could otherwise be used on the bullpen or any other pressing area that needs help. It would turn a simple, fairly straightforward offseason into another challenging one where Ben Cherington will need to get crafty to succeed.
With Lowe also inching closer to his mid-30s, his payday may not be as extreme as people think, either. It’ll likely be a 4-5 year deal somewhere around $22-25 million AAV, which is closer to where the club would like to be than most people may believe.
Lowe has meant a lot to this young core, too, which will really affect them going into 2027 if a deal doesn’t end up getting done. It will hurt the chemistry of a young team that’s adjusting to the big leagues, something Lowe has helped with this season.
There will certainly be risks involved in the deal, such as Lowe’s struggles against left-handed pitching and the fact that he’ll turn 33 next season. However, the pros seemingly outweigh the cons, as this is the type of risk they should be willing to take at this stage of the rebuild.
Could an Extension Actually Happen?
Now that we’ve broken down Lowe’s tremendous 2026 season and examined why this deal makes sense for both sides, we can answer the main pressing question: Could an extension actually happen?
In my opinion, the answer is yes. Lowe and the Pirates both seem mutually interested in getting some type of extension done, even though no discussions have formally been held yet. Depending on how badly he wants to stay in Pittsburgh, Lowe could even sign below his market value to remain in the black and gold, especially if he believes in this young core.
Regardless, the financials will likely always be the one remaining challenge here. Even if they’ve been more willing to spend money as of late, this is still an organization that has routinely refused to commit money to its main producers. The deal that Lowe would be seeking would likely surpass any AAV the team has handed out in franchise history, which will really test the limits of their new commitment to spending.
If the Pirates are serious about contending in 2027, they should go all-in and extend Brandon Lowe, committing to this current core and the potential they have. It’s a perfect fit for both sides, and the ball is now in their court to make this a reality during the offseason.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…