Ceddanne Rafaela Is Finally Making Good on Red Sox Extension

As of right now, the Boston Red Sox have three players who are locked up through at least the year 2031: Garrett Crochet, Kristian Campbell, and Ceddanne Rafaela.

Crochet is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, and he should lead Boston’s rotation and be an annual Cy Young contender for the duration of the deal.

Campbell is still extremely young and has dealt with his fair share of growing pains, but there’s little reason to doubt his legitimacy once he finds his footing at the big league level.

Then there’s Rafaela, who represents a bit of a wild-card. He’s still just 24 years of age, but he’s in his second full season in the big leagues (he also appeared in 28 games and recorded 89 plate appearances in 2023) and has yet to prove that he’s worth the early-career contract extension the Red Sox gave him in April of last season.

Rafaela’s deal from the Red Sox was for eight years and $50 million, so it’s not like he’s going to ever break the bank for this team. His deal will top out at $13.25 million in 2031, but the hope is that he’s emerged as a legitimate stud by the time that year rolls around.

It took a little bit, but Rafaela is starting to prove his worth. In fact, he’s got the second-highest fWAR (2.3) amongst the Red Sox position players (Carlos Narvaez has 2.6) and is behind only Narvaez and Crochet (3.6) on the entire roster.

Let’s take a closer look at the value Rafaela has been providing, and see what kind of adjustments he’s made to see such a wide turnaround in his year-over-year stats.

Stats updated prior to games on Tuesday, July 1

Ceddanne Rafaela’s Value to the Red Sox

Fans hoped Rafaela would hit the ground running and emerge as one of baseball’s brightest stars as soon as the Red Sox made the financial commitment to him. Yet, it took time for him to even begin to capitalize on the potential he showed while coming up through the minor leagues.

By far Rafaela’s biggest and brightest trait is his defense in center field. While he came up as a utility player who jumped back and forth between shortstop, second base, and the outfield, he’s appeared exclusively as a center fielder this season and the results have been jaw-dropping.

To date, he’s in the 100th percentile in Outs Above Average, 88th in Arm Value, and 96th in Arm Strength. Rafaela’s been a human highlight reel in the grass and has taken such massive strides compared to where he was last season.

Allowing him to focus on one position rather than jumping around the diamond has paid off tremendously for Boston. After posting 5 OAA last season, Rafaela’s already got 13 in 2025, which is second in all of baseball, regardless of position, behind Atlanta Braves shortstop Nick Allen.

On offense, Rafaela hits for power, he steals bases, and he’s got an overall line that’s starting to creep towards league-average for the first time since he debuted a few years back. Through his first 81 games this season, he’s got nine home runs with 33 RBI, 45 runs scored, 11 steals in 12 attempts, and is hitting .254/.301/.420.

Put this all together, and it gives Rafaela a wRC+ of 96, which is still a hair below average, but he’s only 4% below, while he finished last season 20% under. Let’s take a look at the numbers that the young Curaçaoan has improved upon from last year to this one.

Improvements Over 2024

It’d be a lot simpler to tell you which areas Rafael has not improved upon from 2024 to now. He’s upped his game on both sides of the ball. Truthfully, he hasn’t gotten enough love for the significant steps he’s taken through the first few months of the new campaign.

Here’s a side-by-side look at some of the categories Rafaela’s improved upon:

Some of the jumps he’s made are more impressive than others, but it’s clear that Rafaela is starting to make better decisions in terms of swinging at bad pitches. He’s also clearly hitting the ball much harder than he did last year. These are both highly encouraging to see from him.

While he’s far from a prolific power hitter, Rafaela already has nine home runs through 81 games after hitting 15 in 152 last year. His ISO has raised from .143 to .167 and his SLG is up 30 points as well. He’s starting to look more and more like the 20-homer player he looked like in both 2022 and 2023 as a minor leaguer.

How Does He Stack Up Against the Field?

As of right now, Rafaela is the fifth-best (qualifying) center fielder in baseball by fWAR standards. It’s no easy task to leapfrog the likes of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Byron Buxton, or Julio Rodriguez on the WAR leaderboards, but playing like a top-five center fielder in the game automatically would make Rafaela’s extension look more “worth it.”

PCA has been labeled as the best overall center fielder in the league this year, and I think that’s a title he’s more than earned. What he’s doing on both sides of the ball is utterly ridiculous but in the best way. He leads all center fielders in home runs, RBI, runs scored, and stolen bases; and he’s done this while simultaneously being one of the game’s best defenders at this premium position.

Yet, Rafaela is quietly above PCA on the OAA leaderboards. Even if it’s only by one Out Above Average, this is still something that shouldn’t just be swept under the rug. No, they’re not going to ever be the same player offensively, but if there’s any category Rafaela can gain the advantage in, it’ll be his defense.

Red Sox fans (understandably) have some high expectations for their young stars-in-the-making. Rafaela took a little bit to get comfortable at this level, but he’s in some respects the best defensive center fielder in baseball, and he’s got an ever-improving bat to go along with it. To some he may not be there just yet, but he’s well on his way to earning every penny of that extension Boston’s front office threw his way.