Will Free Agency Be Better to Blake Snell in 2025?

Coming off of his second career Cy Young win, the first foray into free agency for Blake Snell wasn’t very kind to the 31-year-old.

As has been well documented by this point, Snell and fellow top-of-market free agents Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger weren’t able to lock down the type of long-term pacts any were hoping for.

In fact, all four opted for deals with early opt-outs that could see them all back in free agency this winter.

However, despite Snell’s slow start, which could be traced back to a delayed spring training and ramp-up process, the 6-foot-4 southpaw appears poised to be the most likely to cash in big, should he ultimately decline his player option with the San Francisco Giants.

Through Snell’s first six starts of the year, he had a 9.51 ERA through 23.2 innings, allowed 32 hits, walked 14 batters and was forced to go on the injured list two times. But in the 10 starts since returning from his second trip to the IL, Snell has looked like the pitcher that won the Cy Young and led the NL in ERA last season.

Snell has worked 62.1 innings of 1.30-ERA ball, racking up 83 strikeouts and holding opposing hitters to a .117 batting average since that start on July 9.

Over that timeframe, only Chris Sale has been more valuable by fWAR, and no other qualified pitcher can top Snell in ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts, strikeout percentage, batting average against, and WHIP.

While this second-half surge is somewhat similar to the run Snell went on last season with the San Diego Padres — the first half just wasn’t as bad — it seems like the few months he’s spent with the Giants could quell any concerns that limited his market last winter.

Snell’s career has undoubtedly been great, but he’s undergone some major fluctuations from year to year. Before 2022 and 2023, he had never posted back-to-back sub-4.00 ERA seasons, and it’s understandable that teams might be hesitant to commit a ton of money and term to someone who issues a lot of walks and has only thrown over 180 innings twice in his career.

But now, tracking for his third-straight year with an ERA below 3.60, Snell has perhaps put some of those doubts to rest and proven that his formula of combining elite stuff with some spotty command works.

So, with that established, if Snell does become a free agent this November, the question interested teams will have to answer is: What will the next few years of Snell’s career look like?

What Projections Said About Snell’s Future Entering the Season

It’s nearly impossible to project what the future will hold for Snell, whether that’s in San Francisco or elsewhere, but based on what he’s been over his career, we can use ZiPS to try and get a sense of how he will age.

While ZiPS doesn’t update in-season for future campaigns, based on what Snell did in 2023 and what he’s done over the past couple of months, it still might paint a pretty good picture of what Sneel could become in the immediate future.

While the projections have Snell’s innings falling off pretty dramatically, it might be fair to expect him to throw more innings in 2025 than he will end with in 2024 based on his late start to the season and two injuries.

So, if you factor in a few more innings on both of those projected seasons, combined with his solid ratios, Snell could look the part of a top-20 starter in baseball for 2025 and 2026.

One interesting trend that’s worth monitoring in regards to Snell’s future is that this season, he has thrown his fastball at the lowest rate of his career. This could be an important development going forward because Snell has nailed down his success at the big league level by pounding the top of the zone with fastballs and working down with his other three offerings.

Snell is still throwing his fastball over 45% of the time, but if he does start to play around with his pitch usage as he gets older, there might be a path to him finding success in different ways when his heater inevitably loses a tick or two.

Could Getting a Deal Done Early Unlock the Best in Blake Snell?

In a market that is likely to be headlined by Corbin Burnes, Snell just might end up as the second-most intriguing pitcher available.

Some other potential available pitchers could be Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, and Nathan Eovaldi, among others. But of all these names, Snell has been the second most valuable pitcher since Opening Day 2023. Of course, that includes injury time for Cole and Fried, but Snell is currently proving that with a proper ramp-up, he will perform as one of the top pitchers in baseball.

In late May, Snell acknowledged just how valuable having a normal spring training and normal beginning to a season is for any big leaguer.

“Big league spring training, you need it,” he said after a tough start against the Phillies. “It’s tough to do it. I thought I did everything I could to be ready… You have to go to spring training. For me, I hope teams see that.”

“It’s not easy. I didn’t face a big-league hitter until I pitched my first game in the big leagues this year, and it’s tough,” he later added. “You just have nothing to go off of. You’re just kind of like, ‘Let’s see what we got.’ I faced 18-year-olds. It’s all excuses, but it’s the truth.”

So, with the experience of getting a deal done late and struggling out of the gate as a result, Snell likely won’t want to wait around for a contract to get done this winter, which will benefit both parties.

By the time the 2024 season comes to a close, Snell will probably finish with around 110 innings pitched with an ERA in the mid-3.00s. That will set him up to enter free agency with over 400 innings pitched over the past three seasons with an ERA under 3.00.

Snell has some of the best stuff in the league, and as he settles into seasons, he seems to reach his top level. So, if he can get a deal done early in the offseason and have a normal spring schedule, he could be in for a big 2025.

While he obviously has never been the most durable of pitchers, and that’s a risk some team will have to take on, however, the results when he has been on the mound have been undeniable. And as he continues on this hot stretch to close out 2024, Snell has a chance to prove just how valuable he can be when his body is right in the middle of a season — something that should help his market be more friendly a second time around.