Who Got the Best Value in the Josh Naylor Trade?

As has been expected, especially following a sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros, the Arizona Diamondbacks kicked off their selling spree at the MLB Trade Deadline on Thursday evening.

They sent former All-Star first baseman Josh Naylor to the Seattle Mariners for two pitching prospects, Brandyn Garcia and Ashton Izzi.

The Mariners had been desperate for a corner infielder and might not be done, as they still have plenty of prospects to acquire a third baseman such as Eugenio Suarez.

Meanwhile, Arizona was widely expected to begin selling its four elite rentals along with a few other players in what could genuinely shape their future roster and give them one of the best prospect systems in baseball.

Moving Naylor was the first domino to fall, and it sets the stage for them to continue to field what is shaping up to be a real bidding war for Suarez’s services as the top bat on the market.

What the Mariners Are Getting With Naylor

Naylor was considered perhaps the most available of the D-backs rentals because they have multiple players who could step in and replace him despite his strong production at the plate. They have Seth Brown, who is raking in Triple-A Reno, Tim Tawa, Tristan English, who is having a breakout year in the minors, and Pavin Smith, who is on the Injured List.

Meanwhile, the Mariners had gotten very little power or production out of their first basemen Luke Raley and Donovan Solano. Thus, they needed to get an everyday player for first base and Naylor was the best on the market.

This trade allowed general manager Mike Hazen to get what he wanted on the market for Naylor instead of holding out and letting the teams that need a first baseman fill that spot with someone else.

Naylor is hitting .292/.360/.447 with an OPS of .807, which is the second-best mark of his career. He has 11 home runs, 19 doubles, a triple, and 59 RBI. He’s even reached a career-high 11 stolen bases. He’s done all this while striking out only 49 times and walking 37 times.

Naylor will bring patient at-bats and a strong ability to get on base to the Mariners lineup, something they badly needed as they’ve dealt with a penchant for strikeouts. His 123 wRC+ far outpaces Raley’s 108 and Naylor has a 123 OPS+ as well.

However, his power, which was already down this year as Naylor sold out for more contact, likely will be decreased at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

Yet, he’ll still be able to lengthen out their lineup and provide excellent coverage for Cal Raleigh, something the Mariners needed as they relied too heavily on just a few of their hitters to produce most of their runs.

Naylor will provide most of his value against right-handed pitching as he’s batting .310/.390/.493 this season against them. That’s a vast improvement over the team’s current OPS of .742 and .250 batting average against right-handers.

However, Naylor has been worth just 1.0 bWAR mainly due to his rough defense at first base. Numerous times for Arizona, innings and pitch counts were extended due to some untimely errors or mis-caught balls at first that let a runner reach base.

The other negative for Naylor is that he’s in a deep slump at the plate right now. Since June 27, over 73 plate appearances and 59 at-bats, Naylor is hitting just .220 with an OPS of .635. He has one double, one homer, and six RBI over that stretch.

Notably, this dates back to when he tweaked his shoulder while swinging the bat in Chicago and missed a few days. Since coming back, he’s been quite a different hitter at the plate, though it’s unknown if it’s due to the right shoulder/neck injury that he missed time with or if it’s just a normal slump. He does have 11 walks to just eight strikeouts over that span.

Naylor is only able to play in Seattle for two months and any potential playoffs. Then, he’s a free agent, which limits the value Seattle can get from him, especially without the chance of offering him a Qualifying Offer. Still, Seattle got one of the best first basemen in MLB, and he helps their lineup tremendously. They fixed their issues at first base, and that’s what they needed to do at this deadline. It’s hard to say they didn’t get good value on their side of the trade.

Did Arizona Get Enough Back in Return for Josh Naylor?

Arizona got fair value for Naylor and enough value that it should be better than any QO pick the team would’ve received at the end of the First Round. They can get 12-14 years of control over these two players in MLB, depending on when/if they call them up

Brandyn Garcia is a strong left-hander out of the bullpen who should be called right away for Arizona and finish this season in the Majors. He just made his MLB debut earlier this week and pitched two innings in which he gave up four hits, an earned run, three walks, and a strikeout, as it was clear nerves got the better of him.

However, in Triple-A, he was demolishing hitters with a 2.16 ERA over 8.1 innings as he struck out nine batters. He started the year in Double-A but cruised to Triple-A quickly after working to a 3.96 ERA, but striking out 33 batters in 25 innings to go with just 12 walks.

Garcia did that thanks to a strong sinker-slider combination. His sinker averages 97.1 mph, and utilizing that has allowed him to get ground balls at an above-average 56% rate in the minors.

He also throws a mid-80s sweeper that works against either side of the plate and an upper-80s slider. Both of those pitches are there to encourage whiffs and weak contact and to set up his impressive sinker. He’s a few ticks of velo off from being another version of A.J. Puk for Arizona, and the best news is he’s ready for MLB action now or very soon.

The other player Arizona got is a year or two away from being an MLB option in Ashton Izzi. The High-A product is just 21 years old and still plenty malleable into becoming the mid-rotation starter that he has the potential to be.

While he has struggled with his command this year which has caused him to endure an ERA of 5.51 over just 47.1 innings, he’s done that in a very hitters-friendly ballpark. Izzi has 24 walks but 54 strikeouts in that span.

He’s coming off his finest outing of the season in his most recent start, where he went six scoreless innings. He gave up three hits, no walks, and struck out seven batters.

Izzi has a mid-90s fastball that can reach 97 and works off his sinker, which is also mid-90s. Both of them are by far his best two pitches and work well off of each other. He still needs to refine his mid-80s sweeper, but it has the makings of being a plus pitch if he can achieve that.

He’ll need to make use of a better change-up in order to get left-handers out enough to stay in the rotation, plus Arizona will have to help rein in his command. Too often, he’s been forced into short outings due to elevated pitch counts thanks to walks. If he is unable to, he does the makings of a solid relief arm, but that’s not happening until well into the future.

For now, it would appear that Arizona got a valuable relief ace that they desperately needed for an exhausted and injured bullpen and a high upside starting pitcher that, with a few mechanical tweaks, can blossom into a strong mid-rotation starter.

If these two pitchers pan out or at least provide MLB value, it will not be hard to surpass two months of Naylor’s value unless Seattle won the World Series. Arizona likely “won” this trade and got far more value out of a good rental bat that was at a position that wasn’t a big need across MLB.

Hazen did the smart thing and sold Naylor early to get ahead of the other first basemen available, such as Ryan O’Hearn, who could’ve prevented Hazen from being able to sell Naylor if all the spots were filled.

Is it a sexy or lavish trade that both sides should be excited about, or that one side is the clear winner? No. But these are the moves that can help both teams win in the long run. Arizona just will get more help to win long-term thanks to gaining so many years of control on two high-upside prospects.

Now, it will be interesting to see where Arizona pivots from here. Do the Arizona Diamondbacks sell off five or more players, such as Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and more? Will the Seattle Mariners acquire Suarez?

Only time will tell, but this is shaping up to be a jam-packed Trade Deadline for both teams.