The Best Starting Pitchers Who Just Missed Our Top 25

Earlier this week, we released our Top 25 Starting Pitchers list for the 2025 season and like any list, there are always going to be some noteworthy omissions, none more than the starting pitching position though.

Considering we’re in such a great era of pitching, it was inevitable that the honorable mention list would be loaded with an immense amount of talent.

When I say “immense amount of talent” I don’t mean that lightly either.

On Monday’s edition of the Just Baseball Show, Jack McMullen perfectly put it into prospective when he posed the question to Aram Leighton; “would you be stunned if all [seven] of those guys made an All-Star team?” This was in reference of course to the seven guys who fell just outside our rankings.

This is where starting pitching is in the MLB today, so let’s look at this crew of stars that just narrowly missed Top 25 status on this year’s list.

Seth Lugo (Kansas City Royals)

It’s not often you see a guy listed outside of a top starting pitchers list who’s fresh off a Cy Young runner-up season, but that’s the situation we’re in here with Seth Lugo.

The 35-year-old righty was nothing short of excellent in 2024, posting a 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .227 AVG against and just a 5.7% walk rate.

To add further add a feather to his cap, it’s incredibly impressive to think that Lugo was able to have such success in just his third season as a full-time starter, and only his second since 2017.

A big reason for this success has to be the fact that he possesses one of the deepest pitch arsenals in all of baseball, throwing nine separate pitches in 2024.

Obviously it wasn’t nine pitches thrown at an equal rate, as his four-seam fastball, sinker and curveball were his bread-and-butter, however he did throw every pitch at least 2.5% of the time.

You may’ve guessed it too, with so many pitches to account for when scouting for Lugo, opponents failed to make a mark on a majority of his offerings. Seven of his nine pitches saw hitters hit below .240 and slug less than .400 off of them.

However, last season could be viewed as a bit of anomaly though, as his 2023 campaign (just his second season as a starting option) saw him finish with respectable totals across the board – a 3.57 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and a .248 AVG against – but nothing that jumped off the page per se.

That being said though, the durability he’s shown as a starter – with 146.1 innings across 26 starts in ’23 and 206.2 innings across 33 starts in 2024 – regardless of whether it’s paired with a Cy Young-worthy performance or not, has immense value.

Moreover, if Lugo can replicate or a least perform close to his 2024 output, he’ll have more of a case to crack the Top 25 come 2026.

Tanner Bibee (Cleveland Guardians)

Tanner Bibee followed up his breakout sub-3.00 ERA campaign as a rookie in 2023, with a very respectable 2024 campaign, leading a depleted Guardians rotation to an AL Central title and an ALCS appearance.

In 173.2 innings across 31 starts, Bibee threw to a 3.47 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and .228 AVG against, while finishing in the 74th percentile in K-rate (26.3%) and the 78th percentile in walk rate (6.2%), as per Baseball Savant.

Then when you add some solid performances under the bright October lights, such as his 8.2 innings of work across two ALDS starts this past year, where he threw to a 2.08 ERA, it’s hard not to dream on a future ace here.

It’s easy to see the development in his game from year-to-year as well across the board, such as his K-rate, whiff rate and walk-rate all seeing steady improvements in 2024.

Then in terms of quality of contact, Bibee moved from the 57th percentile to 66th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 53rd percentile to 62nd percentile in AVG exit velocity in the span of a season.

If that development continues and Bibee goes a third-consecutive season where he manages to raise his K-rate, lower his walk rate, further improve his quality of contact, all while posting a mid-3.00s ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP, it would be difficult not to see him within the Top 25 in a year’s time.

Pablo López (Minnesota Twins)

Swing & a miss 🔥

Pablo Lopez keeps the Astros off the board!

📺: @FS1 pic.twitter.com/ROtthFlD5Q

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 9, 2023

After an outstanding debut season in Minnesota in 2023, Pablo López posted a mediocre 2024 campaign as whole, with an ERA over 4.00, with more than 1.20 decline in K/9 and a nearly three percent jump in hard-hit rate, with marginal increases in both WHIP and AVG against as well.

However, we are talking about a recent All-Star though, who’s only a year removed from consideration for the AL Cy Young in 2023, finishing seventh in voting.

Before slipping in form mildly in 2024, López was a sub-4.00 ERA guy for four consecutive.

Even including last season he’s still remained a bill of consistency with a sub-1.20 WHIP and a sub-3.00 BB/9 clip in his past five seasons, a K/9 rate of 9.00 or more in four of the past five seasons and a 3.0 fWAR total or better in his past three campaigns.

From a pitch delivery standpoint, there were aspects of López’s game that actually fared better in 2024 and paints a promising picture for a ’25 bounce-back.

He throws his four-seam fastball at an over 40% clip, nearly 20% more than his next utilized pitch, and held hitters to a .208 AVG and .352 SLG, significantly better than .264 AVG and .460 SLG hitters produced off it in 2023.

Looking from a durability standpoint as well, it’s hard to get much better than 180.0 innings pitched or better in the past three seasons.

So if he can find a way to get areas in his game such as his K-rate and hard-contact rate back to where we saw them at his peak, then there’s no doubt in my mind that López can rebound to the highly-regarded arm we’ve become accustomed to knowing.

Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals)

Sonny Gray's 2024 ERA: 0.89 ☀️ pic.twitter.com/mLr9FwJti5

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) May 4, 2024

Speaking of guys considered for the Cy Young in recent years, Sonny Gray finds himself just on the outside looking in after a 2024 season that failed to live up to the same hype than his 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up season had.

Gray fell from a 2.79 ERA guy in ’23 to a 3.84 ERA last season. He was also more susceptible to the long-ball in 2024 with a 1.14 HR/9, up from the 0.39 clip he posted the year prior.

From a pitch mix standpoint, he could stand to further decrease the amount of four-seamers he throws, even after an over three percent drop in usage from 2023 to 2024.

Opponents hit .333 and slugged .567 off his four-seamer last season. Meanwhile, his next two most utilized pitches were a sweeper and sinker and fared significantly better, giving a lot reason to believe a pitch usage alteration could catapult his game back into Top 25 standing.

His sweeper generated a .142 AVG and .205 SLG with an outstanding 44.4% whiff rate, while his sinker saw hitters post just a .200 AVG and .385 SLG against it, with that being the offering that produced his highest put-away%.

Along with some impressive secondary numbers, there were plenty more things that Gray either improved or remained extremely similar too last season from his electrifying ’23 campaign.

He saw his WHIP dip to a 1.09, his best posting since 2019 while his AVG against only rose by a single point. His K-rate also increased by six percent and his his walk rate dropped by 1.5%.

With the increase in some key metrics despite a “down year”, if Gray can find ways to control areas of his game such as his hard-hit rate, further tweak his pitch mix and continue to maintain an impressive approach on the mound, he could continue to age like fine wine.

Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins)

After a bit of a breakout campaign in 2022, Joe Ryan faltered a bit the following season, falling to a mid-4.00s ERA arm come 2023.

Last season however, he managed to rebound back to a mid-3.00s ERA guy, with some impressive underlying numbers to show for it.

Ryan’s approach on the bump is top-tier, as he walked hitters at an elite 96th percentile rate of 4.6% while striking them out at an 80th percentile clip of 27.3%.

This resulted in a sub-1.00 WHIP (0.99), which was significantly better than the 1.17 mark in 2023 and 1.10 posting in 2022 for that matter. It also saw Ryan finish within the top five of MLB arms with at least 100.0 innings pitched in K/BB (5th at 6.39).

He was also somewhat of a data darling last season, due to some top-notch expected metrics.

In 2024 he saw 73-point difference in his ERA and xERA (3.60 to 2.87), as well as a slight eight point decrease in AVG against (.216 to .208), both respectively ranking above the 85th percentile of league arms.

If Ryan can avoid being an “every-other-season” type arm, build off his successful 2024 season and inch closer to those outstanding expected metrics, he’ll make a serious case to move beyond the honorable mentions group in a year’s time.

Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs)

Shota Imanaga took the league by storm in his rookie season this past year, seamlessly adjusting to the MLB game.

He posted a 2.91 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a .225 AVG against in 173.1 innings across 29 starts, resulting in a fifth place finish in NL CY Young voting and fourth place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year race.

The 31-year-old Imanaga also proved to be one of the toughest arms to face in all of baseball, thanks to 97th percentile clips in both walk rate and chase rate last year.

As largely a two-pitch guy, with his four-seam fastball (52.0% usage rate) and splitter (30.6% usage rate) accounting for nearly 83% of his pitches, he was considerably dominant with both.

His four-seamer only garnered a .229 AVG, while his splitter was arguably his most impressive delivery, after hitters only managed a .204 AVG and .283 SLG while whiffing at it over 43% of time.

As impressive as Imanaga may’ve been though, there are a few notable reasons as to why he managed to slip outside of our Top 25 rankings.

He surrendered a bit too much hard-contact to be completely comfortable with, ranking in the 44th percentile in hard-hit rate and and just the 30th percentile in barrel rate.

Then a fairly sizeable 48-point discrepancy in his ERA and xERA (2.91 to 3.39) was another reason to be cautious when ranking him amongst the elite, signaling there may’ve been an element of luck at play.

At the end of the day though, it was a strong showing overall for Imanaga in his debut MLB campaign, as he left plenty for the baseball world to be excited about heading into 2025.

However, with only a one-year sample size to base our opinions off of, we’ll have to wait and see if that excitement was completely warranted based on whether or not he can replicate a lot of his numbers in year two.

Luis Castillo (Seattle Mariners)

Luis Castillo, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/IhNKmeZZEk

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 15, 2024

Finally Luis Castillo rounds off this list, fresh off plenty of offseason speculation on where he’ll pitch in 2025.

As of right now he remains the third cog in the phenomenal Mariners rotation. “Third cog” should not to be considered insult though, rather it’s a testament to how stellar the first two names in that rotation are, in Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.

Castillo put forth yet another solid season in 2024, with a 3.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .237 AVG against in 175.1 innings across 30 starts.

He features a stellar one-two combo atop his pitch arsenal as well. His four-seam fastball held hitters to just a .203 AVG and .365 SLG last season, while his slider saw opponents hit just .207 and slug .357 off it.

With all that said though Castillo has been fighting an uphill battle it seems since his career-year in 2022, where he posted a 2.99 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and a .210 AVG against.

He’s seen a decline across the board in the following two seasons, with his ERA increasing by 65 points, his WHIP raising by nine points, and his AVG against up 23 points from their respective 2022 marks.

On top of that, Castillo’s strikeout rate also dropped by three percent from 2023, while his hard-hit rate also continued to plummet, dropping into the 22nd percentile among league arms last season.

All that being said though, seeing as to how available Castillo has been throughout his career – ranking sixth in MLB starters in innings pitched since 2018 – he’s likely to see plenty of time on the hill in 2025, looking right his slight downward slide and remain an extremely productive arm.