Which Pitching Matchup is the Best to Start the Wild Card Round?

The MLB Wild Card round can come at you fast. This is the third year MLB is playing under this current Wild Card format, where four teams in each league play in a pair of three-game series to decide which two teams will face off against the best two teams in the following round.

This change came back in 2022, where MLB added a third Wild Card, changing the prior format that had stood for over a decade where the two Wild Cards would square off in a one-game playoff to see who would advance.

The concept of the Wild Card round has been generally accepted as more fan bases get to enjoy October baseball, but the results have been pretty alarming so far. Of the eight Wild Card series that have been played, seven of them have ended in two games.

The lone exception was the Mets vs. Padres series back in 2022, and the winning pitcher in that Game 2 was Jacob deGrom, which is a note worth making when looking at this limited history.

It’s only two years, but based on the history of this format the winner of Game 1 tonight has a 87.5% chance to sweep the series and advance to the NL or ALDS, unless of course you have a pitcher as good as deGrom in Game 2 (a bit dramatic yes, but that’s all the history we have to work with!)

Hopefully this year, MLB finally gets more of these teams to a third game, bringing fans the do-or-die elimination game for both sides that we all love in October.

First things first though, which team has the edge in each pitching matchup today?

We are going to rank each of the Wild Card Series based on the pitching matchup we get to watch today and will give some insight on which team has an edge.

4. Braves @ Padres: King vs. TBD, 8:38 p.m. ET

This game is going to close out our slate for Game 1 of Wild Card mania, and it is arguably the worst matchup of the bunch. And that is because most of us will wake up on Tuesday morning without knowing who is the Game 1 starter for the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves might not even know themselves who is getting the ball for Game 1, as they sort through who is available to pitch on their playoff roster, where they might have to dip further down on their 40-man after the latest series of events on Monday.

Atlanta clinched their playoff berth in Game 2 of their doubleheader against the Mets, but they exhausted their staff to do it. Grant Holmes was the hero for Atlanta, pitching four innings on a back-to-back, getting the Braves into the middle innings as they clinched with a bullpen game.

The reason they had to go to a bullpen game is because Chris Sale was unavailable, as he was scratched from the start due to back spasms. It was later announced by manager Brian Snitker that Sale will be unavailable to pitch in the Wild Card round as well.

Luckily for the Braves, they will have Max Fried ready to go for Game 2, but in the meantime they will have to try to scrap together another win in an unconventional manner.

Meanwhile on the other side of the matchup, the Padres seem to have an eye ahead towards an NLDS matchup against the Dodgers, as they are holding back Dylan Cease to pitch until Game 3.

This is showing confidence in Michael King, who certainly warrants it, as he finished the 2024 season with a 2.95 ERA over 173 2/3 innings pitched.

There was really no bad order for the Padres to go in with their combination of King, Joe Musgrove, and Fried. But sending King out for Game 1, with his general anonymity compared to the other two guys, combined with the unknown for Atlanta, makes this by far the less-attractive matchup to sink our teeth into on paper.

Who Has the Edge: The Padres, unless Max Fried pitches on three days rest.

3. Mets @ Brewers: Severino vs. Peralta, 5:32 p.m.

Now this one is a sneaky good pitching matchup, which can go under the radar when compared to the heavy hitters we are going to see over in the American League.

By winning the first game of their doubleheader against the Braves to clinch yesterday, the Mets were able to hold onto Luis Severino and save him for Game 1 of the Wild Card. This puts the Mets right back in Milwaukee, where they finished a series just two days ago.

Severino did not get a chance to pitch in that series, and neither did Brewers ace Freddy Peralta. Now the two hard-throwing righties will go head-to-head, as both look to have a signature moment in October.

Peralta carries the edge across the board in stats, as he eclipsed 200 strikeouts for the second year in a row, doing so in 173 2/3 innings pitched. With Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff no longer around to carry the load, Peralta has become the bona fide ace of the Brewers this season.

Severino on the other hand has been more of a No. 2 starter for the Mets this season, as Sean Manaea has assumed the ace role down the stretch in New York. Manaea actually had one of his worsts of the second half in Milwaukee on Friday, which has pushed him back to start Game 2.

Regardless of the order, it has been the free-agent additions of Severino and Manaea that have kept the Mets rotation in the hunt all year long, as they each took the ball over 30 times and eclipsed 180 innings pitched.

For Severino, this marks an incredible bounce-back season, which saw him rebound from having a 6.65 ERA for the Yankees last season. Now five years removed from Tommy John surgery, Severino has turned in his best season in years, pitching to a 3.91 ERA, but more importantly reaching that many inning pitched.

Now he will get a chance to showcase himself on the big stage, before hitting the market in free agency again next season after crushing this one-year deal. A big start or two in October could mean everything to Severino in the winter.

Who Has the Edge: At this stage in their careers, and with how they have pitched this season, it is pretty clear that Freddy Peralta gives the Brewers an edge in Game 1. Severino does carry more playoff experience into this game, but he has not always fared well, currently sporting a career 5.11 postseason ERA over 43 2/3 innings pitched.

2. Royals @ Orioles: Ragans vs. Burnes, 4:08 p.m.

An argument can certainly be made that this is the best pitching matchup of the day, with two of the best pitchers in the American League going head-to-head. Really, in the AL side of this bracket, we are about to watch four pitchers who will likely finish top-10 in Cy Young voting.

Ultimately the tiebreaker for why this matchup comes in second is because the other matchup has the Triple Crown winner, but that does not take away from the matchup we will get between the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals.

Cole Ragans will take the ball for the underdog Royals, coming off his first full season in a big league rotation. The 26-year-old lefty flamethrower pitched to a 3.14 ERA for the Royals, making 32 starts and striking out 223 batters over 186 1/3 innings pitched.

Ragans came just five strikeouts away from leading all of baseball in that category. He settled for fifth-best instead. This will be Ragans postseason debut, which could give Corbin Burnes an edge for the Baltimore Orioles.

Burnes may not win the Cy Young this year, but he has continued what has been a four-year run where you can say he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Burnes finished his first season in Baltimore with a 2.92 ERA in 194 1/3 innings pitched.

The reason the Orioles traded for Burnes was not for the regular season, though they would not be where they are today without him. Still, the measure of if this was a good trade for Baltimore lies in October, as Burnes looks to make a lasting impression on the big stage today.

Burnes pitched out the bullpen for the Brewers during his first postseason run back in 2018, so he has actually only made two career starts in October. In 2021, Burnes pitched six shutout innings in a Wild Card game where the Brewers beat the eventual champion Atlanta Braves 2-1.

Last year, Burnes gave up four runs across four innings of a Game 1 Wild Card round loss against the eventual NL champion, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Who Has the Edge: Based on experience, we are giving the Orioles the edge to Burnes over Ragans in his postseason debut, but truly anything can happen.

1. Tigers @ Astros: Skubal vs. Valdez, 2:32 p.m.

The best matchup of the day is going to kick off the whole slate, with the soon-to-be Cy Young Tarik Skubal set to make his postseason debut. Skubal won the Triple Crown this year, leading the AL with 18 wins, 228 strikeouts, and a 2.39 ERA.

The 27-year-old ace has been the best pitcher in baseball this season, and now gets a chance to go into Houston and try to put the mighty Astros on their heels in this three-game series.

The Astros have made it to the ALCS in each of the last seven seasons, so they have a huge edge on the Tigers in this series. But Game 1 is a chance for the Tigers to steal an early momentum behind their ace.

Now it is easy to build this narrative entirely around Skubal, but Framber Valdez is certainly a name to watch in his matchup as well.

Having been part of the last four playoff runs in Houston, Valdez carries experience into this game, having made 15 postseason starts, with 80 2/3 innings under his belt in his playoff career.

In 2022, Valdez was pivotal to the Astros winning the World Series, as he made four starts and pitched to a 1.44 ERA across Houston’s run to a title. He is also coming off a regular season where he pitched to a 2.91 ERA across 28 starts and 176 1/3 innings pitched.

Who Has the Edge: This one might just be a wash.

Tarik Skubal is having the better season, but Valdez is pitching at home and has all the experience to know exactly what to expect in that environment. Skubal can rise to the occasion for sure, but Valdez is not going to make it easy on him.

This is the game that might slip past people that you should not want to miss!