It’s Time We Have a Talk About Adley Rutschman

The tale of Adley Rutschman is one of the more confusing stories in baseball. The former first overall pick from the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft started his career as an emerging face of the league. However, over the past year, Rutschman’s career has taken a completely different turn.

After winning the College Baseball World Series in 2018 with Oregon State and winning the Golden Spikes Award in 2019, Rutschman was favored to be the first overall pick ahead of prep shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Rutschman’s eventual selection signaled the beginning of the rebuild in Baltimore. 

Three years later, Rutschman made his debut. Across the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Adley was a .265 hitter with a .807 OPS and 131 wRC+. Rutschman was firmly on his way to being one of the best catchers in baseball.

At the beginning of 2024, Rutschman looked as if he would continue on that upward trajectory. A .300 batting average and .830 OPS had the Baltimore Orioles’ hopes of their first World Series title in 41 years riding high.

However, in the second half of the 2024 season and so far in 2025, Rutschman has looked like a shell of himself. A .210 average and 84 wRC+ in that span have fans wondering if the front office made the right choice back in 2021. 

So, what has happened? Is the Orioles backstop on a generational run of bad luck? Or, should we lower our expectations on what to expect from Rutschman?

Stats updated prior to games on June 6.

Stark Differences in Production

If you take a look at Rutschman’s Baseball Savant page from 2023, you would think you were watching a fight scene from The Boys with the amount of red you were seeing on your screen. Rutschman had an xwOBA, xBA, whiff rate, strikeout rate and walk rate in the 90th percentile or above.

Rutschman also emerged as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. His blocks above average, framing value and pop time were above the 80th percentile. 

Rutschman was putting on a clinic both at and behind the dish. In his first full season on the team, his approach resembled that of a seasoned veteran:

Unfortunately, that 2023 Rutschman seems to be a distant memory. 

While the whiff rate and strikeout rate remained towards the top of the league in 2024, all of his other hitting stats, besides squared-up percentage, took a step back. An xwOBA of .373 and xBA of .292 in 2023, ranking in the 93rd and 94th percentiles, respectively, dropped to a .315 xwOBA and .255 xBA in 2024, good enough for just the 47th and 62nd percentiles. 

Defensively, Rutschman’s blocks above average improved, but his framing and pop time percentiles took a step back. 

On top of the regression in several stats, Rutschman’s usage of the whole field has also seen better days:

You can notice that Rutschman, who swings left-handed the majority of the time, is pulling the ball more compared to his 2023 spray chart.

Being able to go the other way is a good indicator as to whether or not someone is seeing the ball well. Based on this alone, it seems like Rutschman has not been seeing the ball as well as he did in 2023.

Failing Against the Fastball

Rutschman’s worsening production could be the result of multiple things, one of which is struggling against heat:

let's talk Adley ?

He was a fastball masher in his first two seasons. A combined 23.9 fastball runs above average in 22-23 and -3.1 in 24-25, per @fangraphs

Here's two similar ones from this year and the beginning of last season

His balance and hands look very different pic.twitter.com/QWATp90KwJ

— Brendan Mortensen (@BrendanMorty) June 2, 2025

In the X thread linked above, Brendan Mortensen points out that Rutschman may be taking a longer time to load due to a toe tap. Instead of being on time, Rutschman is causing himself to always be late in his timing.

You can see the result of being late in his contact stats. In 2023, 26% of his contact resulted in fly balls, and 4.7% resulted in pop-ups. In 2024, those metrics took large jumps to 32% and 7.6%, respectively. 

In total, Rutschman’s percentage of contact resulting in balls hit into the air jumped 8%, from 57.1% to 65.1%, from 2023 to 2024.

Instead of being on time and hitting the ball on a line, Rutschman has been getting under the ball too much, which leads into my next point.

Issues with the Swing

As a prospect, Rutschman’s ability to swing a great bat from both sides of the plate was one of his most enticing attributes. Baltimore is also quite familiar with switch-hitting backstops (shout out Matt Wieters).

Being able to switch hit in college is one thing, but being able to develop both swings for the major league level is extremely difficult. In fact, Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins ditched switch-hitting and became an All-Star. 

In 2023, Rutschman crushed the middle as well as the outer third of the plate, especially as a lefty:

So far in 2025, Rutschman’s heat map is not providing much warmth. Unless it is a ball middle down, chances are Rutschman is not hitting it well:

As a result, pitching staffs are utilizing pitches that play with Rutschman’s eyes down in the zone. On sliders and changeups, Rutschman is hitting just .167 and .130, respectively. 

What’s the Verdict?

As a proud owner of a day one Adley Rutschman City Connect jersey, the lack of production has been hard to watch. The catcher started his career as one of the most successful catchers for his age in league history. Now, fans are starting to think he is a bust. 

In a season that is heading towards the Orioles being more concerned about their chances at the first pick in the 2026 draft as opposed to their playoff odds, Rutschman’s struggles have drawn lots of attention.

On the bright side, a recent trip to the Pacific Northwest, along with a swing change, seem to have Rutschman firing on all cylinders.

With friends and family in the stands, Rutschman had a stellar series against the Mariners, helping the Orioles build a league-best six-game winning streak.

Adley Rutschman Vs Seattle 6/3-6/5
13 ABs
7 Hits
.538 AVG
2 Home Runs
3 RBIs
1 Strikeout

Follow for all Adley Rutschman and Orioles related statistical tweets
Powered by @statmusemlb pic.twitter.com/cUIMVqi9lr

— AdleyMuse (@AdleyMuse) June 5, 2025

And that swing change that Mortensen wrote about in his tweet? Mark DeRosa from MLB Central broke down how Rutschman’s departure from the toe tap has helped him get on time again with fastballs:

"He has gone back to what he's done best and he seems to be all over the heater…"@markdero7 shows the tinkering Adley Rutschman has made at the plate, getting rid of his leg kick ⬇️ https://t.co/Lq7PGo8VrA pic.twitter.com/NwO1sH3Aa0

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 6, 2025

Over the past week, this Orioles team looks completely different compared to the team that played the first 60 games. The pitching staff’s turnaround and timely hitting from the young players have people around Baltimore cautiously optimistic that the Birds could make the playoffs.

It is not a coincidence that this team has turned around since Rutschman has gotten things going. As Rutschman goes, the team will go.