Cedric Mullins’ 2025 Has Been a Tale of Two Different Players

If you were to ask any Baltimore Orioles fan if they could go back to March 27, they would do it in a heartbeat. 

On Opening Day the O’s mashed their way to a 12-2 win, where the offense exploded and the pitching staff looked incredible. However, in just two months, all the joy from that day has vanished. 

Another thing that has vanished from the beginning of the season has been Cedric Mullins’ bat. After starting the year scorching hot, the veteran center fielder has struggled mightily at the plate. 

In the opening weeks of the season, Mullins was playing at a level that would’ve made general manager Mike Elias look stupid if he did not resign him. Now talks have shifted to whether the Orioles should trade him at the deadline to try and get something before he leaves in free agency. 

So, what has changed for the former All-Star since the start of the year?

Downtick in Production

Early on in the season, Mullins looked like his 2021 self, the level of player that had a 30-30 season and was the starting center fielder for the AL in the All-Star game. On April 25, Mullins had a .274/.424/.507 slash line, good enough for a .931 OPS and 173 wRC+. 

With the early injury to Colton Cowser and questions about the strength of the rotation, Mullins’ production was welcomed.

However, since April 25, Mullins is hitting .184/.226/.368 with a .594 OPS and staggering 65 wRC+.

Now, it would not be fair to Mullins to just point out his struggles. As a team, the Orioles are hitting .232/.299/.387, all of which are near the bottom of the league.

To make things worse for Mullins, his expected stats are not helping his case. A xBA of .226 is in the 17th percentile. A xwOBA of .320 and xSLG of .397 ranking in the 40th and 34th percentiles, respectively, are not helping his case either.

To put it bluntly, Mullins has not been hitting, and has not been deserving of hits either.

That’s a Can of Corn

Now, the big question is what has caused this downturn in production. After Mullins had continued a solid second half of 2024 into 2025, what has changed?

First we have to look at the results of the swings that Mullins is taking.

On the season, Mullins has a fly-ball percentage of 55.0%, good enough for fifth-highest in the league. This has largely helped Mullins post a top-50 slugging percentage of .473.

However, a change in the quality of contact may explain the loss in production.

On April 25, back when Mullins had that fantastic statline mentioned earlier, his hard-hit rate was 35% and a soft-hit rate of 13.3%. Since April 25, his hard-hit rate has only dropped to 30.6%, but the soft-hit rate has jumped to 25.8%.

If that soft-hit percentage stood alone, it would be the third highest mark of any hitter. Mullins on the season has the 19th highest soft-hit rate.

Combining a high fly ball rate and a high soft contact rate is not the recipe for success. The home runs that Mullins was launching over the fences have turned into cans of corn.

What’s the Verdict

This season has been perplexing for Mullins. After a hot start, fans were wondering if 2021 Mullins was back. However, as the O’s offense has struggled as the season wears on, Mullins has looked more like the 2022-2024 Mullins.

The stats tell an interesting story as well. Despite the dropoff from the start of the season, several stats like his on base and slugging percentages are the highest they have been since his All-Star year. Mullins is also walking at a 11.6% clip, over two points higher than any mark in his career.

However, other stats are concerning. Mullins batting average and strikeout percentage are the second worst marks of his career. 

In a contract year, Mullins performance is under a microscope. If Mulling can return to his 2021 self, he could be in store for a large payday. However, if the opening month of the season turns out to be a flash in the pan, there could be questions about what kind of offers Mullins would get.

While the chances of the Orioles season turning around do not solely rest on Mullins finding that early season success, a veteran presence in the locker room turning things around could be a spark that helps get the team back on track.