The Astros’ Pitching Will Be Key to Winning the AL West

Folks, we are about to wrap up the month of April and the first month (or so) of games in the 2025 MLB season was fantastic. This is especially true for fans of the Houston Astros, who entered the year thinking their team’s incredible dynastic run was coming to an end.

To open things up, the Astros are 16-13, just one game behind the Seattle Mariners for the top spot in the American League West. Sure, it’s still early, but there’s an old saying about how teams can’t win a season in its first month, but they can certainly lose it. The Astros, to this point, aren’t in danger of losing it anytime soon.

Entering Wednesday’s action, Houston’s got a +16 run differential, which puts them fifth in the AL. It’s not a number that’ll knock your socks off, but it’s a lot better than what some other teams with playoff aspirations are at (looking at you, Baltimore Orioles, who sits at -50).

Through the season’s first month, it’s been pitching, pitching, and more pitching carrying this Astros team. Let’s take a look at what they’ve got going right for them, and perhaps take a closer look at which parts of the offense can improve. This year’s Mariners team looks legit, so the Astros are going to need to step their game up if there’s going to be any hope by the time the end of the year rolls around.

All stats updated prior to games on Wednesday, April 30th

Breaking Down the Astros’ Starting Pitching

Houston has a whopping six starting pitchers on the injured list to this point. Spencer Arrighetti is the latest arm to hit the shelf, but he’s joined by important pieces to the rotation like Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and the ghost of Lance McCullers Jr.

Despite the fact that the group’s been ravaged by injuries, Astros starters are continuing to roll.

Through 29 games, the club’s starters are seventh in baseball with a 3.59 ERA and eighth in FIP with a 3.64 mark. They’re 12th in K/9 but they’ve remained stingy when it comes to allowing free passes, as they currently sit sixth in the league in BB/9. Helping their case even further is their 1.09 WHIP, which is second in the majors.

So far, it’s been the Hunter Brown Show down in Houston. The right-hander has the third-lowest ERA (1.22) and FIP (1.84) in baseball through his first six starts. He had shown potential throughout his second full season last year, but his game has taken a significant step forward to open the new year.

Brown’s six-pitch repertoire is full of legitimate weapons that consistently keep hitters off balance. He sits fifth in baseball in soft-contact percentage with two of his primary offerings – his four-seam fastball and changeup – allowing batting averages of .167 or lower.

Framber Valdez was expected to be the Astros’ ace heading into the year, but a pair of blow-up outings have inflated some of his overall numbers. Even still, his ERA is at 4.00 and his FIP at 3.69, so there’s not much to complain about. He’s gone six and eight innings in his last two starts, respectively, and has allowed two earned runs in each. Putting the occasional poor start in the rearview, his season has looked promising so far.

The other standout in the rotation has been 26-year-old Ryan Gusto, who’s soaking up the first big-league innings of his career. The former 11th-round pick has made four starts (and four relief appearances) and has a 3.00 ERA and 133 ERA+ through 27 innings. He’s another Astros arm that has six pitches at his disposal and so far none of the 31 changeups he’s thrown this year have resulted in a base hit.

The Bullpen Has Been Money

As excellent as the starting rotation has been, the Astros’ bullpen has been even better. Led by a back-end trio of Josh Hader and Bryans Abreu and King, the relief-pitching unit has done an outstanding job whenever called upon.

Entering Wednesday, Astros relievers are third in baseball with a 2.77 ERA and 3.05 FIP. They are also second in K/9, fourth in strand rate, sixth in BB/9 and ninth in HR/9. There’s not a whole lot this group hasn’t been able to do through the first month of the 2025 campaign.

Hader in particular has been looking a lot like his old dominant self. The quirky left-hander endured a bit of a “down year” in 2024 that saw him post a 3.80 ERA across 71 appearances. Not to worry though, he still struck out over 100 batters for the first time since 2021.

Through his first 13 games this year, the five-time All-Star has 20 strikeouts and just three walks through 15 innings of work. He’s notched eight saves along the way and also leads the AL with 12 games finished. The game’s been good as finished basically anytime he’s taken the mound.

Abreu, 28, is a bit of a “co-relief ace” if there ever was such a thing. He’s functioned as Hader’s bridge reliever for over a year now and has done his job practically every time he’s called upon. The right-hander has a 2.08 ERA through 14 games (13 innings) with 18 strikeouts and eight walks.

The Astros have done a nice job of compiling pitchers other teams didn’t want and turning them into something of value. Steven Okert, a 33-year-old lefty who’s been on three teams in the past three years, has a sparkling 0.64 ERA with 16 strikeouts and zero walks through 14 innings. Tayler Scott and Bennett Sousa have smaller sample sizes but they’re also filling their respective roles admirably.

The Offense Needs to Catch Up

The entire Astros pitching staff has been rock-solid to open the new year, but the same cannot be said for the offense. Their 92 team wRC+ currently ranks 23rd in the league and they’re outside of the top-15 in home runs, runs scored, walks, stolen bases, and many more major offensive categories.

To date, Houston’s had 13 batters register 30 or more plate appearances. Of that bunch, only four have posted a wRC+ north of 100, which is league-average. Isaac Paredes and Jose Altuve have been as advertised, while Chas McCormick and Jeremy Pena are other early-season standouts on the Astros offense.

To have such a small amount of their everyday lineup being positive contributors is very un-Astros-like, but it’s also unlikely this group continues to underachieve like this.

Having both Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez, two of the team’s top sluggers, be below-average bats through the first month, it’s easy to see why the lineup is scuffling. However, they both have extensive track records, and it’s hard to believe they’re going to continue to falter.

Since April 20, Walker is hitting .310 with a .621 SLG and 180 wRC+, so it appears that his turnaround is already quietly upon us. In that same span, Alvarez is hitting just .226 with a 78 wRC+, but he’s also been hitting the snot out of the ball all year, which is on par with what he’s done ever since he broke into the majors.

Closing Thoughts

Getting those two to hit the way they’re supposed to is going to be massive for the Astros lineup. The lineup has never been an issue down in Houston, so once they find a way to get their feet underneath them, it’s going to be hard to get them off their game.

For years now, the Astros have had a solid pitching staff and one of the deepest lineups in the game, which has combined to make them annual World Series contenders. Despite the fact that their offense has gotten off to a slow start, they remain three games above .500, owners of a positive run differential, and just one game back from the top spot in the AL West.

Playing in a division that could have as many as four different winners by the time all is said and done, the Astros feel like they’re going to end up being the best team. The pitching staff just needs to continue to tread water the way it has while waiting for the offense to start carrying its own weight.