The Houston Astros Need to Get Healthy Fast

Both the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners swept their respective series over the weekend. As Just Baseball’s Peter Appel pointed out during Aram Leighton and his weekend roundup podcast, “When the Mariners start to fall, so do the Astros. When the Astros start to heat up, so do the Mariners. These two teams are going to be battling until the end.”

Peter nailed this battle for the AL West. Heading into Tuesday’s action the Astros are on a six-game winning streak. Their rival Mariners have a four-game winning streak of their own going. The two AL West teams have quite the back and forth going at the moment. Houston leads Seattle by a mere half game.

The AL West has become a two-horse race, and it is shaping up to be a doozy. With 10 of the head-to-head games already played the Mariners boast a 6-4 advantage over the Astros. Seattle will only need to take one out of the last three contests between the two division rivals to hold the tiebreaker.

With the AL West being decided via tiebreaker last season, could this make two consecutive years that takes place? The final three games against each other will be down in Houston September 23-25. Holding the tiebreaker could be a huge advantage in such a tight race.

As the division and a spot in the playoffs is up for grabs, the Astros are in desperate need of two of their stars to make a return to the lineup. Both Kyle Tucker and Justin Verlander have been sorely missed. Houston has played solidly as of late, but if they are going to win the AL West, they could really use both Verlander and Tucker.

First the Great, Not So Great News on Tucker

So, this isn’t all bad news, just not great news. Tucker has been out since fouling a ball off of his shin on June 3. I am no doctor, but what happened to Tucker sure seems to be more than a typical bone bruise.

Here we are nearing the middle of August, and he is just now starting to move around on the field. But he is moving around on the field which is more than he has been able to do up to this point. That is a positive report for sure.

And when I say move around, take a look at the video below that Astros reporter Brian McTaggart got on Monday. While it’s fantastic to see Tucker back on the field, it sure doesn’t look like he was moving around very well. The September timeline seems to be accurate at this point.

It will be interesting to see how quickly Tucker can find his groove. After being out for so long, it is likely that he will have to go on some sort of rehab assignment in order to get his rhythm at the plate against live, in-game pitching. That also takes more time.

There is a decent number of games that remain, yet the end of the season is going to be here before we know it. Houston desperately needs Tucker back in their lineup. Here is a crazy number for you – 3.5. What does that number represent? It is Tucker’s bWAR on the season and ranks second on the team behind only Yordan Alvarez (3.9).

Tucker has missed over two months and has amassed nearly as much bWAR as Alvarez, more than anyone else on the roster. To say that his return could have huge implications on the playoff race is a gross understatement.

Verlander to Make Another Rehab Start

It is nothing short of remarkable that the Astros are even in the spot that they are. They have had one of the thinnest pitching rotations in the league this year – due to injury – and yet they just keep finding a way to stay in the mix.

One massive help will be when three-time Cy Young award-winning pitcher, Justin Verlander can return to the rotation. If he can stay on the rehab train and not have any more setbacks, he could be joining the team quickly.

Last Saturday Verlander pitched in a rehab assignment with the Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys. The 41-year-old veteran threw three innings, tossing 52 pitches (36 for strikes), struck out three, walked two, and allowed one run. More than the numbers, Verlander indicated that he felt good after the start and is slated to have another rehab start sometime later this week. That could put him on target for a return to Houston as early as next week.

Verlander’s Return Will Ease Everyone’s Workload

More starting pitching will be a huge boost for the Astros as their schedule doesn’t lend itself to much rest over the last seven weeks of the season. In fact, Houston has just four off days the entire rest of the season. They also have a stretch of 18 straight games in 18 days in addition to a stretch of 16 games in 16 days.

That type of schedule is hard for any team this time of the year, but especially one that has a lack of pitching depth. By comparison, the Mariners have two additional off days during the same time period (that includes yesterday’s off day). Two extra days to rest might not seem like a ton, but they could be huge in deciding who takes the division.

Getting Verlander will help tremendously. I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston doesn’t go with a six-man rotation during part of the stretch run just to help keep their arms fresh and innings down. Ronel Blanco is currently at 128 innings pitched which far out paces his previous professional high which was 88 and came back in 2017.

Rookie Spencer Arrighetti is sitting at 113.1 innings pitched between Houston (105) and Sugar Land (8.1). His previous high was last season when he topped out at 124.2 innings. Not only will Verlander help out from a veteran pitching standpoint, but he will help keep some pressure and fatigue off of the other guy’s arms as well.

Garcia Near the End for Possible 2024 Return

After undergoing Tommy John surgery last May, the Astros planned on having Luis Garcia join the club toward this part of the season. Unfortunately, Garcia experienced discomfort in his elbow after two rehab starts last month and has been shut down.

According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, when asked on Monday if the Astros were close to shutting him down for the season, manager Joe Espada responded, “obviously we’re running out of days, but I’m not in a position to say we’re not going to see him for the rest of the season. But the days are counting down.”

He’s correct. There are fewer and fewer days until the regular season comes to a close, and the idea of pushing a pitcher that is coming off of Tommy John surgery into action before they are ready is not a stance that any team wants to be a part of.

Bregman and Alvarez Holding Down the Fort

It looks like Houston will have to fight for the AL West with their current roster for a little bit longer. Hopefully Verlander will add a much-needed boost to the rotation, perhaps as early as next week if he continues to feel well. Tucker might not be back for several more weeks, and Garcia might not throw for Houston in 2024. The defending AL West champions will have to dig deep to repeat this season.

Until reinforcements get to Houston, the Astros will lean on their veterans to get them through. Bregman and Alvarez have been doing their part lately. The duo claimed co-AL Player of the Week awards for their efforts last week.

Even with the great play by Alvarez and Bregman, Houston could sure use a dose of Verlander and Tucker soon. The race to the playoffs in the AL West is really shaping up to be a must see.