The Astros’ Catching Gamble Paid Off in a Huge Way in 2024

In 2023, the Houston Astros finally decided to let their second-highest ranked prospect take over duties behind the plate and they haven’t looked back since.

Yainer Diaz has exploded onto the major league scene over the last two seasons and has proven himself to be among the league’s best catchers on both sides of the ball. The Astros rode Martín Maldonado’s strong arm for six of their seven consecutive ALCS appearances from 2018-2023. However, his lack of production at the plate needed glaring improvements.

Yainer Diaz Earned a Starting Gig With the Astros

It was obvious that Maldonado wasn’t going to cut it anymore behind the plate for Houston. He barely provided a bat at all, and it was eventually going to get to a point where his defensive value didn’t matter as much if he was a virtual black hole on offense.

Maldonado’s Struggles

Throughout his career, Maldonado has been a sub-par hitter, sporting a career triple-slash line of .207/.283/.349 to go with a measly 72 OPS+ through the end of the 2023 season. Yet the 36-year-old catcher would still start 116 games behind the plate for the Astros in 2023, largely due to his veteran presence and leadership on the field.

The statistical argument to keep Maldonado in the lineup day after day was questionable at best, though, as the 2023 campaign was by far his worst defensive season on record.

Maldonado started the majority of Houston’s games behind the dish while Díaz was relegated to a primary DH role; the rookie would only appear in 104 total games in 2023 and only saw the field in 68 of them. Despite the fielding metrics clearly indicating Maldonado’s struggles defensively, Houston would still trot him out to catch starters who had likely become more comfortable with pitching to him.

According to Baseball Savant, Maldonado’s Fielding Run Value in 2023, a metric that rates a player’s fielding skill on a run-based scale, was an appalling -16, ranking him in the first percentile league-wide. The only catcher he outranked in this statistic was Nationals backstop Keibert Ruiz, cementing the statistical downfall of La Machete, Maldonado’s affectionate nickname for his strong throwing arm.

La Machete‘s arm wasn’t even up to his career standard either in 2023, as he only threw out 16% of would-be base-stealers. His lowest qualified caught-stealing rate up to that point in his Astros tenure? Twice as effective at 32% a year prior.

While he may at one point have brought a daunting defensive presence to the field, Maldonado’s 2017 Gold Glove Award is far in the rearview mirror and his time was simply up in Houston. This was not all his fault, however, as Diaz had given the Astros plenty of reasons to play him everyday.

What does Yainer Diaz Bring to the Table?

Long story short? Everything Maldonado did not.

Diaz brought a bat-first approach to the position. In 2022 across stints at both the Double-A and Triple-A leves in Houston’s system, Diaz posted 25 home runs, 96 runs batted in, and posted a triple-slash that leaves Maldonado’s career numbers in the dust: .306/.356/.542. Diaz appeared in six MLB games in September that season, getting a taste of the level that he’d be spending the rest of his career at.

Diaz’s breakout year in 2023 sealed the deal that he’d get the starting job in 2024, meaning the Astros were moving on from their longtime backstop and he’d have to find a job elsewhere on the free agent market. Fortunately for Maldonado, or rather unfortunately, he found himself a one-year contract with the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox had a hilariously bad season in 2024 and Maldonado’s numbers echoed that, posting a cringe-inducing line of .119/.174/.230.

To add insult to injury, Diaz’s 16 home runs in 2024 equaled Maldonado’s entire hit total on the season over just 48 games in Chicago. In the last two seasons, Diaz has accumulated 5.6 WAR according to FanGraphs and sported a 122 OPS+, almost twice as good as Maldonado’s career mark.

He fell just short of an All-Star appearance in Texas this season, posting just a .717 OPS by the Midsummer Classic but he responded with one of his best stretches of the season, slashing .408/.426/.714 over his next 13 games in July.

Diaz was a threat all season long with the bat, ranking in the upper echelons league-wide in hard-hit percentage (47.5%), expected batting average (.300 and in the 96th percentile), and he ranked eighth in all of MLB in batting average at a .299 clip. The potential in Diaz’s bat is plain to see, and he’s definitely got more in the tank.

While Diaz’s bat is much better than Maldonado’s has ever been, Maldy’s game has always revolved around his aforementioned career-strong defense and his cannon of an arm. In 2023, Diaz’s average throw to second base was over 3 MPH faster than Maldonado’s, and was about 2 MPH faster in 2024 over a larger sample size. It’s safe to say that the young catcher’s just better defensively than the aging veteran.

In the 2024 postseason, Diaz didn’t necessarily dazzle, but he was one of just four Houston hitters to tally multiple hits in the Astros’ two game upset at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. In a season where he placed among their top-5 hitters in virtually every offensive statistic, the Astros may have suffered a defeat but they’ve shown that they’ll always be a threat.

Did Houston Make the Right Choice?

The short answer is a resounding yes, and the only grain of salt in their decision to give Diaz the starting role in 2024 is that they didn’t do it sooner. However, it’s also possible that Maldonado remained the starter in 2023 with the intent to teach and guide Diaz in a leadership role similar to the part he played throughout his Astros tenure.

As for Maldonado, the White Sox DFA’d him on July 17, bringing his season – and potentially his career – to an end. Maldonado’s tenure in Houston shouldn’t be looked back on with the slightest bit of chagrin, however, as he helped them win two World Series rings (2017 and 2022) in four World Series appearances (2017, 2019, 2021, 2022) over his time as an Astro.

Astros fans will surely remember him for being the on-field leader of their dynasty and for being La Machete, so if this is it for his career, he’s well-deserving of a tip of the cap from all. While he may have played a minimal statistical role in their dynasty, Maldonado was a solid backstop and played his role well.

Houston has capitalized on a diamond in the rough during their least successful season since 2016, a year in which they still made the playoffs. Whereas Astros fans might look upon this year as a lost one, especially in what might be Alex Bregman’s last season as an Astro, it’s safe to say their future is in good hands with young talent like Yainer Diaz.