How Good Is the 2026-27 NPB Free Agent Class?

Every offseason, stars from Nippon Professional Baseball make the move to Major League Baseball, and this year will be no different.

Not every Japanese player will become a superstar stateside like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Munetaka Murakami, but they deserve significant recognition for what they accomplished in NPB. The players have spent their professional careers performing in front of passionate crowds of more than 40,000 fans, and the quality of competition in NPB continues to rise year after year.

So, which NPB talents are the prime candidates to jump across the pond through the posting system during the 2026-27 offseason?

According to a recent report by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, at least three stars are expected to be posted in early November: Teruaki Sato of the Hanshin Tigers, Kaima Taira of the Saitama Seibu Lions, and Hiromi Itoh of the Hokkaido Nipponham Fighters.

The potential timing of the postings is noteworthy, as Japanese players have a 45-day window to negotiate and sign with an MLB team. NPB clubs typically post players in mid-to-late November  — several weeks after the Japan Series concludes.

With an MLB lockout looming, whether or not NPB teams elect to post a player earlier could determine if they can get a deal done before the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1.

Stats as of Sept. 20, 2026.

3B/RF Teruaki Sato (Hanshin Tigers)

Over the last couple of years, Sato has evolved from a dangerous yet volatile slugger into an MVP winner and now the clear-cut best player in Japan as he pushes toward a Central League Triple Crown.

He showcased his superstar talent with a three-run homer off Blake Snell in an exhibition game before the 2025 Tokyo Series, and again during the 2026 World Baseball Classic, when he batted second behind Shohei Ohtani in the Samurai’s quarterfinal matchup against Venezuela and ripped an RBI double off Ranger Suárez.

With the regular season winding down, the 27-year-old is slashing .314/.390/.613 with 36 doubles and 35 home runs in 123 games, good for a staggering 205 wRC+. He has paired his prodigious power with a career-best 13.3% walk rate while striking out 27.0% of the time.

His career 152 wRC+ in NPB puts him in the range of other hitters who made the jump, including Kazuma Okamoto (147), Munetaka Murakami (165), and Seiya Suzuki (169), and he has the kind of raw power very few Japanese sluggers can match.

Sato has endured his share of slumps before and comes with some of the same swing-and-miss concerns that surrounded Murakami’s move to the bigs. However, his elite bat speed and exit velocities compare favorably with some of the biggest stars in MLB. His in-zone contact rate (81.3%) falls right in between Okamoto (90.1%) and Murakami (73.4%) in their final NPB seasons.

The primary questions surrounding his MLB projection are his aggressive approach at the plate — he chases outside the zone far more often than the aforementioned Japanese stars — and his defense at third base, especially his inconsistent throws. He is a capable right fielder with a strong arm and has seen time at both positions in 2026, but Sato will likely provide negative value defensively.

Sato’s market could benefit from the early success of Murakami and Okamoto. While his floor may be lower than either of theirs due to a less patient approach, his combination of bat speed and raw power gives him the upside of a true middle-of-the-order force capable of surpassing 30 home runs in the majors.

The Upside: Premium bat speed and world-class pop give Sato legitimate 30-plus homer potential as a middle-of-the-order bat.

The Downside: Sato’s aggressive approach, swing-and-miss tendencies, and uncertain defensive home create considerable risk if the power does not fully translate.

The Verdict: A supremely gifted athlete with “future big leaguer” written all over him since his college days, Sato belongs in the same conversation as stars like Murakami and Okamoto, though without the former’s elite plate discipline or the latter’s league-average glove, his profile is inherently riskier.

RHP Kaima Taira (Saitama Seibu Lions)

Hailing from a small island in Okinawa, Taira broke into the professional ranks as an overpowering reliever before successfully transitioning to the rotation in 2023.

A forearm injury derailed his 2024 season, while disagreements with Lions management over his usage pushed him back into the closer role in 2025. Taira has dominated regardless of how he has been deployed, but has always preferred to be a starter and returned to the rotation in 2026.

Now 26, Taira possesses one of the deepest arsenals among NPB starters, leaning on both a changeup and splitter to opposite-handed hitters and a sweeper and slider to same-handed opposition. He is also one of the select few in Japan who can maintain velocity above 95 mph deep into starts, and he works with multiple fastballs.

He currently leads NPB in ERA by a comfortable margin at 1.36 over 139 frames (245 ERA+), with solid ratios: a 24.7% strikeout rate against an 8.1% walk rate. His 49.4% groundball rate also places him in the upper third of qualified starters.

His four-seam fastball has poor shape and ride, but it can still play thanks to his unusual release traits and flat vertical approach angle. His low-90s cutter is arguably his best weapon, and he commands it in the zone at a high rate against both righties and lefties. His splitter serves as his primary putaway pitch, and Taira almost exclusively buries it below the zone in two-strike counts.

The most obvious concern is his unconventional starter’s frame. At just 5-foot-8, his size will inevitably raise questions about durability and workload, as it did with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

That said, Taira is a powerful 220 pounds after adding considerable strength through offseason weight training and is effectively built like a tank. He is also a student of pitching, with a deep interest in mechanics, pitch design, and training methods that he regularly shares through his YouTube channel.

Many MLB front offices may evaluate Taira as a reliever given that he has only two full seasons of starting under his belt, but with a fastball that tops at 100 mph and a long track record of success (career 1.78 ERA) across multiple roles, the right-hander will be one of the most attractive pitchers to hit the market this winter.

Taira is also a Scott Boras client, so a short-term prove-it deal is certainly plausible.

The Upside: With a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, deep arsenal, and outlier traits, Taira has the tools to succeed as a mid-rotation arm. Should he falter, his experience as a high-octane reliever still provides value on a roster.

The Concern: Undersized and with only a couple of years of handling a starter’s workload, Taira may not have the durability to be a starter in the long run.

The Verdict: Taira’s role and usage will ultimately depend on his health and the organization he lands with, but he has unique talent to contribute to an MLB team in a big way.

RHP Hiromi Itoh (Hokkaido Nipponham Fighters)

Itoh entered 2026 as the reigning Sawamura Award winner, but his year got off to a rocky start. At the World Baseball Classic, his fastball lacked its usual life, and he surrendered a go-ahead three-run homer to Wilyer Abreu in the quarterfinals that ultimately ended Japan’s tournament. Those struggles carried into the regular season, as he allowed five home runs across his first three starts.

The 28-year-old has somewhat rebounded since then, highlighted by winning Pacific League Player of the Month honors in May. However, his overall numbers are solid but unremarkable: a 3.33 ERA (107 ERA+) across 164 2/3 innings, with a 21.8% strikeout rate and a 4.8% walk rate. He’s in the 26th percentile with a 42.8% groundball rate, leaving him susceptible to the long ball, though that’s still better than a notorious fly ball machine like Shota Imanaga.

Itoh’s four-seamer remains the foundation of his success, sitting around 92 mph with more than 19 inches of induced vertical break. Even accounting for the transition to an MLB ball, it should still generate above-average ride and play effectively at the top of the zone. But its margin for error will depend heavily on whether he can sit closer to 93-94 mph rather than the 91-92 he’s been at for much of 2026.

What makes the Hokkaido native one of the most dynamic arms in Japan is his assortment of nearly a dozen different pitch grips and shapes, allowing him to mix and match offerings, change looks, and kitchen-sink his way to collecting outs.

Itoh’s main value lies in his ability to consistently eat innings, but his MLB market will likely hinge on how teams evaluate the translatability of his fastball without elite velocity and whether his fly ball tendencies leave him too vulnerable to the home run.

The Upside: With plus command, a crafty mix, and a workhorse mentality, Itoh has the ingredients to become a dependable back-end starter.

The Concern: Itoh’s below-average velocity and fly ball tendencies leave little margin for error against MLB power hitters.

The Verdict: Itoh is dynamic enough to offer a higher floor than more volatile arms like Tatsuya Imai or Kodai Senga, but he lacks the ceiling of a frontline starter. A very good outcome for him would look like a Kenta Maeda-lite.

Other Names to Watch

Other potential candidates include Yokohama DeNA BayStars second baseman Shugo Maki, Hanshin Tigers righty Hiroto Saiki, and Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles outfielder Ryosuke Tatsumi.

Saitama Seibu Lions right-hander Kona Takahashi could also pursue an MLB move as an international free agent after failing to sign through the posting system last winter.

Maki has been a remarkably consistent hitter since entering NPB in 2021 (career 153 wRC+) and a mainstay on the Japanese national team since 2023. The 28-year-old is now in the midst of his best offensive season on a rate basis (181 wRC+) despite missing eight weeks with a hamstring injury.

His pull-heavy, loft-oriented swing helps him maximize power from a stocky frame and could translate pretty well to MLB. However, questions will be asked about his ability to hold down second base, as he likely will not slug quite enough to be an everyday first baseman.

Hanshin declined to post Saiki last winter, but the 27-year-old remains a hot candidate. His run prevention has been remarkably stable with a 1.87 ERA since 2022, and his strikeout rate has skyrocketed to an NPB-best 29.4% this season. He has a shallow pitch mix but pairs a high-ride, high-spin fastball in the low-to-mid-90s with a nasty splitter, giving him mid-rotation upside in MLB.

Tatsumi also requested to be posted last offseason, but Rakuten denied the move. The 29-year-old ultimately remained in Sendai after testing domestic free agency. A five-time Gold Glove center fielder with a career 115 wRC+ and more than 100 stolen bases, he profiles more as a versatile fourth outfielder than an everyday big leaguer.

Takahashi was posted last winter but returned to Saitama after going unsigned. Now eligible for international free agency, the 29-year-old would not require a posting fee.

His stock had declined with two underwhelming seasons, but he revamped his pitch mix this past offseason while working with Unfiltered Labs in Arizona. His swing-and-miss upside is limited, but he is enjoying his best season since 2023 by keeping the ball on the ground.