2024 Fantasy Baseball Wrap-Up
After a year in which offense struggled and pitching thrived, it's time to summarize what happened and how fantasy managers can improve on their results.
So, your league results are finalized. If your team was a winner, bragging rights are now yours. Oh, I won? No more opponents? I’ve slayed every dragon possible?
Yes, it’s truly a unique type of warmth. The victors in all fantasy baseball leagues know the type of dedication it takes to conquer a 162-game season. From the draft to constant waiver wire studying to infinite trade possibilities and sit or start decisions, the grind is always present.
So where does that leave the losers? Many of you reading this placed anywhere but first. And that’s not a roast, just simple probability. I’m here to provide all the tough love because often the only way we learn is from our own mistakes.
With that being said, let’s take a look at the top performers, the biggest disappointments, and lessons learned throughout the 2024 fantasy baseball season.
The Draft
Remember those bold predictions we made during spring training about why we were targeting certain players? Most of the time, such dart throws look foolish at the season’s conclusion.
However, I’d encourage all fantasy managers to go back and look at those certain picks and learn more about your drafting habits. Because when a few of those risks work, you look like a genius.
It’s always fun looking back at rankings and ADP once the season is complete. For example, Luis Robert Jr., Randy Arozarena, and Bo Bichette were all taken inside the top 40 ADP. Yikes, my condolences to anyone who invested in these guys.
All three of those players have shown they are capable of producing All-Star seasons in the past, but what is one characteristic they also share?
Here’s a hint, just look at the clubs they represent: the Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Tampa Bay Rays. None of those squads were even top 20 in the league in runs scored, providing a huge red flag heading into next season for squads with similar characteristics.
So, one theme I’m taking away is to study lineup context and support because having protection from one’s teammates is vital. You can only do so much within an offense that produces so little.
2024 Busts
I didn’t believe too much in team context before this season. That is until I invested heavily in Julio Rodríguez. The Seattle outfielder was who I selected first in my dynasty draft, leaving me hopeless for a while until September rolled around.
Julio did not perform up to standards, but it didn’t help that he was getting absolutely no help from his Mariners teammates. Jerry Dipoto, I beg of you, please trade one of your starters for true offensive help.
I am not a Seattle fan by any means, but owning shares of Julio gave me a little taste of what their fanbase has been going through lately.
Another 2024 fantasy first-round darling was Corbin Carroll, who went through much of the same slump as Rodríguez in the first half of the season. But despite not making the postseason cut, the Snakes willed their way to scoring the most runs out of any team in 2024.
This was a big factor in Carroll breaking out of his slump. Diamondback bats were hot up and down the lineup card, allowing manager Torey Lovullo to slot Carroll into the seven hole while he figured himself out.
This patience, and all the at-bats around strong hitters, was something Rodríguez never got in Seattle. It only goes to show: Player analysis is important, but team strength is also a key piece of the puzzle.
2024 Breakouts
Evaluating who is going to break out and playing for upside is an essential part of fantasy baseball. As Ricky Bobby once said, “If you’re not first, you’re last.”
This is true even if you’re playing in dynasty leagues where younger players are worth more. We often forget that the goal isn’t to buy players or own the most talented prospects. The goal is to raise a trophy at the end of the season.
So, who provided the most value when it came to our drafts back in February and March? Marcell Ozuna landed right around pick 135. Jarren Duran was going at 176. Brenton Doyle at 425. How did we let this happen? If you took a flyer on any of those bats, all the credit to you and what your metrics said about those players.
And if you think that list of offensive players was strong, just listen to the list of pitchers who were drafted after an ADP of 276: Paul Skenes, Seth Lugo, Ranger Suárez, Jack Flaherty, Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Jeffrey Springs, Jared Jones, David Peterson, Bowden Francis, Spencer Arrighetti, and Spencer Schwellenbach.
If we’re being honest, most of those guys were aces in 2024. And if you are finding multiple aces in round 23 or later of a 12-team league, I think it says something about the state of pitching.
2024 Fantasy Baseball Season: Lessons Learned
While arms were failing and countless TJS announcements occurred daily, there was no shortage of depth if you were smart enough to grab the right pitchers off the waiver wire in time. So, as the winter passes and we come out of our hibernation next spring, I want you to be thinking about one thing…
How are you going to adjust your strategy when it comes to balancing high-end hitter talent with pitchers who are good enough to win?
I would never recommend taking an ace before anyone else does. That’s been my strategy for years, and to say it has worked well would be an understatement.
Don’t get me wrong, you need multiple horses on your staff. But many of those stallions do not come on draft day as you just learned above. And it’s not like this season was an outlier compared to past years of fantasy baseball in terms of pitching.
Those “Quiet Aces” are always enveloped deep within the waiver wire, we just have to be ready when they do have that singular breakout performance. If you wait too long or for multiple starts, it could be too late.
One thing that also almost never changes is the need for offense when it comes to trading players. When I talk with league mates about potential deals, many do not want to give up hitting. Rather, they focus on gaining a bat instead, resulting in having to sacrifice one of their arms.
I truly believe this is a fatal flaw which many fantasy managers fall victim to. Becoming so hyperfixated on offense is a dangerous game to play. Remember, the game of fantasy baseball is typically 5×5. Last time I checked, that’s an even split which requires attention to both sides of the spectrum.
In my best piece of advice without getting into the nitty gritty, try to get three aces in the draft. And by aces, I don’t necessarily mean the prime cream of the crop. No, I’m talking about the guys you can throw out there every five days no matter who they’re facing and feel confident at the same time.
Most of your first-round selections should be hitters. The scarcity of offensive numbers in combination with the deep depth of pitching equals selling out for big bats early on.
Once those rounds are complete, try and take a few chances with high upside or pitchers with an injury history in the middle-to-late rounds. If you are not taking chances on some of your picks, success will be hard to come by. That certain value play will be missing.
If you want to have a mediocre team that finishes in the middle of the pack, sure go ahead and select somebody safe in the back end of your draft. Victories will be few and far between with such a mentality.
Parting Thoughts
Nobody has the perfect team coming out of drafts or even a few months into the season. It’s the strategy you implement during the year that determines results.
Baseball has the longest season by far when it comes to professional sports, so we must remember that fantasy baseball is a process not completed overnight. Whether it’s being active on the waiver wire, outsmarting your opponents with trades, or simple intelligent roster construction, this game is a war of attrition.
Follow along with me all offseason for more in-season tips and predictions as to where I see the most value in 2025!