Yankees and Dodgers Stars Are Favorites for AL and NL MVP
The regular season is getting set to begin, and the MVP race should be tight in both the American League and National League.
Spring Training has come to an end, and the regular season is getting set to begin. With that, one thing is for certain; The MVP race is going to be tight in both the American and National League this season.
In 2023, Ronald Acuna Jr had a historic season to take home the NL MVP award. In the American League, Shohei Ohtani was the unanimous MVP award winner after getting it done on the mound and at the plate. Ohtani signed a massive contract with the Dodgers, so he will be competing with Acuna for the NL MVP this season.
With Ohtani out of the AL, the American League MVP race is going to be even tighter and a lot of fun to keep tabs on. The Yankees seem to hold the top two spots on the odds, but there are plenty of players deserving. However only one will come out on top.
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2024 American League MVP Winner Odds – Top 10
| American League MVP Odds |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) +550 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) +600 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) +1000 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) +1000 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) +1100 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) +1600 |
| Bobby Witt Jr (KC) +1600 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) +1800 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) +1800 |
| Mike Trout (LAA) +2200 |
Favorites to Win AL MVP
Aaron Judge is one of the best players in the MLB. He was among the best in 2023 in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, and he does a good job not chasing pitches. When healthy, Judge is an easy contender for MVP every year. If he remains healthy in 2024, Judge is going to be top-3 finisher for MVP.
Juan Soto just joined the New York Yankees, and that field is going to work to his advantage. Soto finished 2023 with a career high in home runs, and sixth-place finish in the MVP race. The most impressive part is Soto played every game. Health is not a problem for him, and he should be able to have another great year. He is one of the best pure hitters in the MLB, and Yankee Stadium is only going to amplify that.
Corey Seager has played very well in a Rangers uniform. He hit 33 home runs in both years, and last season he had an OPS north of 1.000 to go along with a 170 OPS+. Seager’s xSLG in 2023 was .614, which is very impressive, as well. He is the player the Rangers paid for, you can expect him to prove it once again in 2024.
Players to Keep an Eye on in the AL MVP Race
Julio Rodriguez is one of the favorites despite being +1000 to win the award. He had a great sophomore season, even after his slow start. Rodriguez finished his 2023 year with 32 home runs, 103 RBI, and a 128 OPS+. What makes him such a hot bet is that he finished top-7 in the MVP race, improving each year. He seems to only be getting better, and could definitely end up winning American League MVP.
Bobby Witt Jr is just as good as Rodriguez. He did not have as good of a rookie year, but he did hit 20 home runs. He followed that up with a 30-home run season in 2023. Witt was also able to steal 49 bases, drive in 96 runs, and finish with an OPS of .813. He is the heart of the Royals, and if he can have another season of 30 home runs, Witt is going to be a real threat to win MVP.
Kyle Tucker is one of my favorites. He is as consistent as they come. Tucker finished 2023 fifth in the MVP race. He hit 29 home runs, drove in 112, and had an OPS+ of 142. He has also had a WAR of 5.4 the past two seasons. Tucker is going to continue to rake, and the MLB will notice. Do not be surprised if he wins the American League MVP.
One Sleeper Pick for AL MVP
Marcus Semien (+3000): Semien is not necessarily a “sleeper pick”, but his odds at +3000 seem a little high. He finished third in the MVP race in 2023 after recording 185 hits, 29 home runs, 100 RBI, .826 slugging percentage, and he played every single game. His ability to stay healthy makes him a good choice for the award, but he should also be able to have the same type of offensive season.
My Prediction and Pick for AL MVP
This is going to be fun season, with plenty of players ready to show out. My prediction and pick for American League MVP is Kyle Tucker. He has been good for a while now, and this is the year I think he wins the award.
2024 National League MVP Winner Odds – Top 10
| National League MVP Odds |
| Ronald Acuna Jr (ATL) +525 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) +600 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) +900 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr (SDP) +1000 |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) +1100 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) +1200 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) +1400 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) +2000 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) +2200 |
| Manny Machado (SDP) +2500 |
Favorites to Win NL MVP
Ronald Acuna Jr. is the reigning NL MVP, and it is for good reason. He hit 41 home runs, drove in 106, had an OPS of 1.012, OPS+ of 168, and he stole 73 bases. His baseball savant page is more than impressive, as well. There is not much else to say about Acuna. He gets it done in all parts of the game, and as long as he stays healthy, he is an easy favorite to repeat as MVP. Below is Acuna’s baseball savant page.
Mookie Betts: With the Dodgers, Betts has finished second (2020), fifth (2022), and second (2023) in the MVP race. He is right on the cusp of winning the award, and this could be the year he does it in the National League. In five seasons with the Dodgers, Betts has a .916 OPS, and 146 OPS+. As long as he plays as he has been with the Dodgers, Betts will make another run for the MVP award.
Fernando Tatis Jr made his return to the diamond in 2023, and he made a huge splash on the defense. He struggled a little on offense, though. However, he was able to launch 25 home runs, drive in 78, and steal 29 bases. He will have to hit for a higher average, or hit for more power in 2024, but it is easy to see why he is a favorite for National League MVP.
Players to Keep an Eye on in the NL MVP Race
Freddie Freeman is one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball. He has hit over .300 in seven of the last eight season with an OPS+ of 132 or better since 2013. Freeman’s WAR has been above 6.0 the past two seasons, as well. He seems to be getting better with age, and this year is going to be no different.
Matt Olson launched a career-high 54 home runs last season to go along with 139 RBI. With his incredible power, Olson slugged .604, and had an OPS+ of 162. Olson is not just a power bat, though. He hit .283 in 2023, so he is going to get his hits, even if they do not leave the park. If Olson can build on his 2023 season, he will be the second Brave in as many years to win the award.
Corbin Carroll is the reigning Rookie of the Year, so beware of the sophomore slump. However, Carroll seems to be the type of player that is going to play well no matter what. He hit 25 home runs in his rookie season, and finished with a 5.4 WAR. He is a big reason for the Diamondbacks going to the World Series in 2023, and he needs to have the same type of season in 2024. If he does, the MVP could go to him.
One Sleeper Pick for NL MVP
Oneil Cruz (+6000): Cruz got hurt after just nine games in 2023, but he seems ready to go. In Spring Training this season, Cruz is batting .273 with an OPS of 1.120, and seven home runs in 15 games (44 at-bats). He is crushing the ball in Spring Training, which makes him a player to really keep in an eye on. The regular season is a different beast, but Cruz has the talent to win the National League MVP.
My Prediction and Pick for the NL MVP
My prediction and pick for National League MVP is Matt Olson. He was overshadowed by Ronald Acuna Jr last year, but teams have to pitch to him. I am expecting him to have the same type of year, just maybe not as many home runs. Nonetheless, I am taking him to win NL MVP.
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