Cashed another two winners on Monday! We swept the board, but it wasn’t easy. Kyle Hart was pretty easy, going over his strikeout line in the third inning. However, we had to sweat out the Braves vs Dodgers Under 8.5, which didn’t start well but ultimately hit with a final score of 6-1.

I didn’t see any value on the board yesterday, but today I do. I have two plays, and both are totals. Let’s stay hot.

2025 Record: 8-2 (+4.99 Units)

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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox @ 2:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Twins: Pablo Lopez (3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 5 Innings)

White Sox: Sean Burke (0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP in 6 innings)

Rain is expected to fall throughout this game, which has created value on the over. When most people see rain in the forecast, they automatically believe the offense comes to a halt. While it will slightly suppress home runs, gripping the ball as a pitcher is harder than it would typically be, leading to more hanging breaking balls. Playing defense in those elements is also more challenging, leading to more potential errors. The main point is that the rain won’t stop me from betting on runs.

The Twins are a fascinating team. Similarly to the Braves, when this team is hot, you tail, and when they are cold, you fade. The Twins got off to an abysmal start, combining for six runs in their first four games. They had the lowest wRC+ in the league going into yesterday’s game. However, the offense put up eight runs last night, and they had four outs that were hit 110 MPH or harder.

This lineup has plenty of talent, but from previous years, I’ve noticed they rely on momentum more than other teams. After finally breaking out, I expect them to continue that into today.

They’ll go up against Sean Burke, who is coming off a six inning shutout in his first outing. He’s a pitcher I’m high on this season, but he’s still a young guy with much to prove. It was against the Angels, and he was lucky not to allow a run. He only struck out three Angels; his xERA is 7.12, and his xFIP is 5.12 after that start. I don’t think they’ll blow up Burke, but three runs over five innings is very attainable here.

Conversely, Pablo Lopez will face this White Sox offense. Chicago has the 15th-best wRC+ as a team so far, and they are doing a great job limiting the strikeouts.

Lopez didn’t look great in his first start, allowing eight hits and four runs (two earned) and only striking out three batters against the Cardinals. His struggles on the road continued from last season, as he posted a 4.50 ERA. He also didn’t have a lot of success against the White Sox last year. Over two starts, he only complied nine innings but allowed five runs. The current White Sox lineup, over 64 PA, is hitting .262 against him. That’s pretty solid.

The only Twins reliever with a good amount of rest is Jhoan Duran. We will see him, but we should be over 7.5 runs by the time we arrive. Griffin Jax, one of the best relievers in baseball, threw 24 pitches yesterday. This is a solid Twins bullpen, but the White Sox have seen them plenty of times before. I expect Lopez to allow 2-3 runs, and the bullpen allows one more.

The White Sox bullpen isn’t very good, and two of their worst arms are available: Mike Clevinger and Cam Booser. The Twins should continue to hit once Burke is lifted from the game.

I have this total closer to 7.5 at -120 towards the over. It’s not a ton of value, but at +105 or better, it’s worth a half-unit wager.

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Rockies: Kyle Freeland (0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP in 6 Innings)

Phillies: Zack Wheeler (1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 6 innings)

Kyle Freeland won’t have a 0.00 ERA for very long, but he does have the potential to keep it up in this matchup. He has some incredible numbers against the Phillies that we’ll discuss in a moment. Conversely, the Rockies may be shut out entirely against Wheeler and a rested Phillies bullpen. This has the makings of a very low-scoring game.

Let’s start with Kyle Freeland. The Phillies have plenty of experience with him, and whether it’s at Coors Field or Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia doesn’t see him well. Over 126 PA against the Phillies’ current roster, Freeland has held them to a .197 opponent batting average and a .298 xwOBA, with a strikeout rate of 27.8%.

Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber have combined to go 13-68 (.191 average) with 23 strikeouts. Edmundo Sosa, their right-handed platoon bat that hits lefties well, is 0-7 with three strikeouts against Freeland. Nick Castellanos, Alek Bohm, and JT Realmuto, the big righties in the Phillies lineup outside the players we named, are a combined 8-37 (.216) with eight strikeouts.

Freeland looked exceptional against the Rays in his first start, posting a 0.83 xERA with a 35% strikeout rate and a 0% walk rate. His earned run line is -105 towards the under, which I’m showing some value on. I think he gets through five or six innings while allowing two runs.

Conversely, we have Zack Wheeler at home against a horrific offense. They have a 38 wRC+ against righties to start the season, which is the worst mark in baseball. This is carrying over from last year, where they posted the second-lowest wRC+ against righties on the road. The Rockies’ bats haven’t seen much of Wheeler in the past, but they’ll learn today. I see some value in his over 8.5 strikeouts; I think he dominates today.

Behind Wheeler is a solid Phillies bullpen with the luxury of an off day. After Wheeler exits, they should continue to punish this Rockies lineup. My only worry for the total is this Rockies bullpen, but at least they had a rest day. It’s a bottom-tier bullpen, but they have some fine arms that should be able to get through the later innings.

I expect a pitcher’s duel in the early goings, with the Phillies likely pulling away late against the bullpens. I have this total closer to 6.5, so I would play this down to 7 (-110).

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