Thought we were sweeping the board yesterday, but we ended up with a 1-1 (-0.42 Unit) day instead.

The Cubs vs Dodgers Over 8 (-120) was the easiest bet of the season. They scored eight runs in the first inning, and then Andy Pages went yard in the top of the second to give us the win. We lost on my larger play, Guardians First 5 Innings (-105). The Guardians took the lead in the sixth inning and went on to win the game. Bets like that sting, but at the end of the day, I was fading Will Warren, and he was spectacular.

Today, I’m showing value on two different player props. One is a fade of an Orioles pitcher, and the other is backing the opener of the White Sox to go longer than expected.

2025 Record: 21-14 (+6.60 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals @ 6:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Orioles: Tomoyuki Sugano (3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 21 Innings)

Nationals: Trevor Williams (5.95 ERA, 1.63 WHIP in 19.2 Innings)

This is the day we fade Tomoyuki Sugano. Simply put, he can’t keep getting away with this.

The 35-year-old Sugano was brought over from the NPB last season after pitching to an ERA below two over 156 innings. He was never a strikeout guy, but he did rack up 111 strikeouts. He thrived on soft contact and limiting the walks.

This is Major League Baseball. You shouldn’t be allowed to rock a 3.43 ERA with a strikeout rate below 10%. I might be more lenient if he kept the ball on the ground at an elite rate or had a Hard-Hit rate that rivaled the best pitchers in the game. He doesn’t have any of those things, and his walk rate is in the 78th percentile, not the 99th percentile.

The point is, I’m not just picking on him because he doesn’t strike anyone out. But, among pitchers with at least 20 innings this season, there are only three with a K/9 under four. Antonio Senazela, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Randy Vasquez. Vasquez has a 3.97 ERA, and Senzatela has an ERA of nearly five. It’s tough to be successful with such a low strikeout rate.

Senzatela can somewhat mask this with his elite walk rate (88th percentile) and groundball rate (86th percentile). Vasquez hedges it with an elite Hard-Hit rate against (81st percentile). The only saving grace for Sugano is that he’s in the 78th percentile in walk rate. His groundball rate and hard-hit rate are not even average; they are below average.

That’s why he has one of the most significant discrepancies between his ERA (3.43) and his xERA (6.43). He has the sixth-worst xERA among all pitchers with at least 20 innings, and his 5.30 SIERA is also one of the worst marks in the league.

I’ve been waiting to fade him until this moment. I wanted him to have his best start of the season before I came in on the other side. He just threw seven innings against a solid Guardians offense while only allowing two earned runs. Sugano has made four starts this year, and he has allowed more than two earned runs only once.

In that start against Cleveland, he allowed nine balls to be hit over 95 MPH while only recording nine swings and misses over seven innings. Six of those nine hard-hit balls were for outs, a bunch of lineouts and deep fly balls. I’m paying to see if he can get that lucky again.

In my opinion, it doesn’t matter who the opponent is as long as it’s not the Rockies or the White Sox. These are major league bats. The Nationals aren’t an electric offense, but they have been getting unlucky this season. They rank in the upper half of baseball in Hard-Hit rate and have a 103 wRC+, but they have a bottom-ten batting average on balls in play. A team getting unlucky versus one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball has me salivating.

The Nationals have also been crushing righties at home, specifically. Yesterday’s performance against Dean Kremer helps, but now they sit with a 135 wRC+ against righties at home this season, the fifth-best mark in baseball.

I project him for 3.0 earned runs allowed, giving us a 60% chance of hitting this over, making the true line -150. I would take this up to -130.

Bonus Play

I decided not to make this play official because I sent it to my Discord, and within two minutes, they removed it from the board. Now, -425 is the best price you can find. That’s not fair to you guys. I have no control over the line movement, and most of my picks move, but this is too far. This will not be included in my official record.

I bet this because I think Bryce Wilson goes about three innings instead of the implied 1-2 innings of work. The only reason I’m telling you this is to keep an eye out on announcements, because he could end up going longer than three innings today, which would warrant a play up to 3.5 strikeouts.

If you’re interested in getting my plays as soon as I bet them and have the opportunity to discuss each play with the group directly, join our Discord!