Not Gambling Advice: Baseball Picks for Today — Odds, Bets & Lines (May 14, 2025)

We tried, but it didn’t work.

I went for the home run on Rockies ML (+205) and lost 4-1. They led in this game for an entire commercial break, so at least we had a 1% chance. I know many people had questions about the pick, considering the Rockies are a glorified Triple-A team, but I bet on value. That showed a monster edge, and I’d bet it again at that price. It didn’t work out yesterday, but I like our long-term odds.

Today is another bet that will likely make your skin crawl, but value is value, and I’m taking it.

2025 Record: 33-23 (+12.37 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Angels: Kyle Hendricks (5.30 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in 35.2 IP)

Padres: Randy Vasquez (3.76 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in 38.1 Innings)

I haven’t had much success backing the Angels this season, but I’ve adjusted them far down my power rankings to make up for it. I have them as the fifth-worst team in baseball right now, just ahead of the Rockies, White Sox, Marlins, and Pirates. Conversely, I have the Padres as the seventh-best team in baseball right now, only trailing the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Tigers, and the Cubs.

You may not see value in the Angels today if you disagree with those power rankings. I do, especially early, as the Angels have the better starting pitcher today. The only number that would disagree with is their ERA, but all the numbers I look at show that the Angels have the edge on the mound.

Let’s start with the glaring one: Pitching+. It’s a FanGraphs pitching model that combines Stuff+ (grading physical characteristics of the pitch) and Location+ (grading location of those pitches). Hendricks sits with a 79 Stuff+ and a 113 Location+, giving him a 93 Pitching+. Vasquez has better stuff (96 Stuff+), but much worse command (96 Location+). Ultimately, they both sit with a 93 Pitching+.

Regarding SIERA (skill interactive ERA), Hendricks has the advantage. His 5.27 SIERA is well below average, but Randy Vasquez has the worst SIERA of any pitcher with at least 30 innings at 6.38, much worse than second place 5.68. Based on that metric, my favorite ERA predictor, he is the worst starter in Major League Baseball.

My second favorite ERA predictor is xERA, a pitcher’s xwOBA translated into ERA terms. Vasquez’s 5.97 xERA puts him in the eighth percentile, and among all pitchers with at least 30 innings, that 5.97 mark is the ninth worst in baseball. Hendricks’ 4.61 xERA puts him in the 27th percentile, not very good, but almost a run and a half better than Vasquez.

A much simpler way of evaluating a pitcher’s skill level is looking at their K-BB ratio, which a pitcher can control the most. Randy Vasquez is the only starting pitcher in baseball who is in the negative, as he’s walking more batters than he’s striking out. Hendricks is not a strikeout pitcher, but at least he’s in the positive.

Vasquez has escaped trouble this year on soft contact. He’s sitting in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and 84th in Hard-Hit rate. Those are excellent marks, but Hendricks has done the same, yet has not seen the same results. He’s in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and the 91st percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. I can’t stress this enough: Vasquez has been better only because of luck.

A pitcher with these bad underlying metrics rarely has a solid ERA. These are professional hitters; if you have below-average stuff and aren’t commanding the ball, the results will not be long-term. The Angels are not much of a threat at the plate, but they have been hitting the ball well this series, and I’ve liked what I’ve seen from them at the plate. They put up nine runs in game one and another four on eight hits yesterday.

Another reason I like this play is that I don’t think the Angels have to crush Vasquez to stay in this one. Hendricks has fantastic career numbers against the Padres’ current lineup. He got crushed last year in San Diego, but Luis Campusano and Jurickson Profar did a ton of that damage, and they are not in this 2025 lineup.

Through 105 PA against the current Padres lineup, they only hit .245 with a .289 xwOBA and a .350 xSLG with an average exit velocity of 84.4 MPH. Even if Vasquez skates by only allowing two runs, I can see Hendricks having one of his better days on the mound.

The Padres have also had problems with pitches similar to those offered by Hendricks. We all know he lacks velocity, so I went to Baseball Savant and looked at how all 30 teams do against changeups, sinkers, and four-seamers below 90 MPH. The Padres rank 25th in xwOBA at just .282 against those offerings.

We can fade one of the worst pitchers in baseball at a big plus price. At +150 through the first five innings, not only do we have the possibility of getting our money back if it’s tied, but we also have the starting pitching edge in this game.

The Padres’ offense is better, but they have historically below-average numbers against Hendricks and have not made consistent contact with pitches like what Hendricks throws. Considering the Angels have been hitting the ball well this series, I’m taking the risk with them. The Padres’ bullpen is miles better, but the Angels have fought against them in both games, and at +160, this shows clear value. San Diego has used their high-leverage arms all series, and most will be on their third day in a row.

My model makes the true line Angels +118 through the whole game, so at +160, this shows a lot of value, and I would take it down to +148. The ML is lower than +120 because I price the first five innings ML at +101. I decided to risk it throughout the game because it has more value.

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