Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good!

Nationals ML (+130) was one of the luckiest bets of my life. They were down 7-1 going into the seventh inning and came back to win 8-7. They won on a bad throw from Pete Alonso, which allowed Abrams to score the winning run. I couldn’t believe what I was watching, but we’ll take it!

However, we did lose horribly on the Rockies. They got dominated by Nick Lodolo, so it didn’t even matter that the Rockies scratched Feltner in favor of Blalock. Feltner would have had to throw a shutout to win, as the Rockies only put up one run.

Today, we are back with two plus-money player props.

2025 Record: 25-16 (+8.78 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 6:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Yankees: Carlos Rodon (3.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 36 Innings)

Orioles: Kyle Gibson (2025 Debut)

The total in this game is either a juiced 9.5 or a flat 10. Kyle Gibson is making his 2025 debut, and with the way money is pouring in on this game, you’d think he’s about to allow all ten of those runs. While the Orioles have gotten off to a horrific start against lefties, that total is high because the Orioles see Rodon well, and I think they’ll break out of their slump today.

Before we discuss Rodon, you may wonder why I’m not taking the whole game over. While Gibson is getting older and this is his first start, the Yankees’ lineup has never seen him perform well. Through 90 PA, they are only hitting .181 against him with a .283 xwOBA.

As a Yankee fan, I’ve seen firsthand how he carves through us. He threw seven innings of one-run ball at Yankee Stadium last season, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him have success today. The runs will come from somewhere, and I believe it’ll be from the Orioles side.

Rodon hasn’t allowed a run in two straight starts. He dominated the Rays and then dismantled the Guardians through seven innings. However, in his previous three starts, he allowed at least four earned runs. That’s how it typically goes with Rodon. He’s either lethal, or he gets clipped for a few long balls and ends up turning in a below-average start. I see the latter in his future.

Yes, the Orioles have been horrific against left-handed pitching. Statistically, they are the worst offense in baseball to begin the year against lefties. They have the fourth-highest strikeout rate and the lowest wRC+ against southpaws. Rodon has been racking up strikeouts with ease, and yet, he’s offering a 6.5 strikeout line at plus money, despite being over in four straight. If bets like those hit consistently, we’d all be on an island together, and BetMGM would be bankrupt.

The Orioles may have struggled to start against lefties, but they see Rodon well. Over 38 PA against the Orioles’ current roster, they are hitting .314 with a .403 xwOBA and a .601 xSLG. He threw against Baltimore twice last season, allowing eight earned runs in as many innings. Players like Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Laureano see him well, but I have another hitter in mind for this matchup.

Another reason the total is so high is due to the weather. It’s supposed to be beautiful at Camden Yards today with temperatures expected to be in the low 80s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out. It’s an excellent day for offense.

On the surface, this is an excellent matchup for Rodon to continue his scoreless innings streak. I don’t see it, especially against a divisional opponent in desperate need of a win against a pitcher they’ve destroyed on multiple occasions.

I rarely bet on hitters’ props, but at this price, I can’t resist Gunnar Henderson today.

On the surface, the matchup is terrible. Gunnar Henderson is 1-6 against Rodon with three strikeouts, and he has a .253 OPS against lefties this season. That’s why we are getting a plus money price. However, upon closer examination, there is no chance this prop should be +105 today.

Yes, he’s only 1-6, but his outs against Rodon have been loud. His average exit velocity against Rodon is 90.6 MPH, and his xSLG is .623. Gunnar is an incredible hitter; he’s not a platoon bat. He put up a .829 OPS against left-handed pitchers last season. He put up a .909 OPS at home last season. This is still Gunnar Henderson we are talking about.

I’m not just relying on name value; Gunnar is heating up. He’s had a hit in each of his last four games, and he’s been punishing balls. The issue is he’s been getting unlucky. He got a hit off Skubal, but he also had another 100 MPH groundout. Yesterday, he hit a 102 MPH double. In game one of the double-header, he had a 107 MPH lineout and a 100 MPH groundout. In game two, he ripped a 102 MPH single. He’s consistently hitting the ball hard, but the results aren’t there.

Gunnar is rocking a 57.6% Hard-Hit rate with a 95.7 MPH average exit velocity. That’s the third-best average exit velocity among all hitters, and he’s only 0.2% off of Aaron Judge’s 57.8% Hard-Hit rate.

He’s also done very well against the Yankees in the past. Last season, he was over this line in eight of 14 games against them (57%). While Gunnar has gotten off to a rough start against lefties, so has Rodon. Rodon has faced 31 lefties so far, pitching to a 5.62 ERA. He’s also allowing 2.2 HR/9 to lefties, while his HR/9 this season in total is just 1.1. He’s allowing his slider to creep over the plate against lefties, and they can crush it. I expect Gunnar to take advantage.

He’ll be near the top of the lineup against Rodon, so there will be opportunities for one of his right-handed teammates to hit him in, or he’ll do it himself. He is also live to produce against the bullpen even if he isn’t able to get to Rodon.

I love this buy-low opportunity for Gunnar today as I expect him to aid in Rodon’s tough start. I don’t even mind sprinkling him for a home run, as his one hit against Rodon is a long ball. I would take this to -120. With optimal weather for the bats, I like Rodon to allow at least three runs today. I project him for 2.7 runs, making the true line close to -130. At +125, this is my favorite bet of the day, and I would take it down to even money.

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