MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Tuesday, April 30, 2024
I love a good 2-1 day. We made a profit, but we are also humbled after a loss.
Our only loss was to the Mets. Luis Severino threw seven shutout innings, and the Mets clung to a 1-0 lead. Edwin Diaz, the best closer in baseball, came in and allowed a two-run home run. I don’t really blame Diaz—that’s baseball—but I blame the Mets’ offense for doing absolutely nothing.
Our two wins were excellent. We took the Nationals ML as a +130 underdog, and the Marlins never had a lead and ended up losing 7-2. We took the under 8.5 in Milwaukee, and the game ended 1-0.
We have only one pick today, and I think you know what it is. Let’s head to the toilet bowl.
These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.
2024 Record: 37-38 (-2.52 U)
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Feltner vs Sixto Sanchez
The Rockies are terrible. The Marlins are awful. The Rockies have the better starter on the mound and the rested bullpen. The Marlins have the better offense. The Rockies are +120, which implies they have a 45% chance of winning. Nobody can convince me the Rockies don’t have at least a 50/50 shot of winning this game.
These are two of the worst offenses in the league. Both are in the bottom five in every possible metric against right-handed pitching. You could argue that I have to downgrade the Rockies’ offense in this matchup since they are coming off a series in Mexico.
I would understand if they didn’t have a day off to adjust. You also have to factor in that this is the Rockies, a team that is routinely going on the road after playing at high altitude at their own stadium. With a day off to adjust, and it being the Rockies, I think we can expect them to play at their average level.
The Rockies have the slightly better wRC+ against righties (81 vs. 80), but the Marlins have been better lately (68 wRC+ vs. 61 wRC+). There is no real edge on offense, but you could give it to Miami. It’s close. Green on these charts is bad, and the Marlins show more green.
While the Marlins have a slim offensive advantage, they have the tougher matchup in Ryan Feltner. I’m convinced Feltner’s 5.85 ERA is what’s making the Rockies underdogs here. No way the Marlins, a playoff team last year, lose another home game against a guy with an ERA near six!
Yes, way. Feltner has a 3.35 xERA and 3.65 SIERA due to his high strikeout rate and 80th percentile average exit velocity mark. He’s had back-to-back rough starts against the Phillies and Padres, but he’ll have a much easier matchup against Miami.
Feltner prefers pitching on the road, as his FIP falls to 4.50, and his K-BB% is 5% higher. It makes sense; who wants to pitch in Coors Field as their home ballpark?
Feltner generates a high whiff rate on all four of his pitches and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average rate. I think he’s on par with a pitcher like Jake Irvin, who did perfectly fine against this Marlins offense.
On the flip side, we have Sixto Sanchez. In what world does he deserve to be a favorite? “Peter, the line is weird!” Was it weird when the Nationals swept them as an underdog in all four games? The books have not adjusted yet to how bad this Marlins team is, and they have their worst starter on the mound today.
Sanchez is not stretched out either, as his longest outing this year (2.2 IP) was his last against the Braves. It’s a tough matchup, but he allowed three runs on five hits before exiting. He has a much easier matchup today, but I still don’t expect much from him.
After he exits, we get the Marlins bullpen. Not a single pitcher is in a good rest spot. Five of their arms have thrown 20 pitches or more in the last two days. The other four pitchers that they hold that were rested yesterday all pitched.
These bullpens are in the bottom five of every metric, but the Marlins are in a pitchers’ park, while the Rockies have to throw on the moon.
I think the Rockies bullpen has better arms, and they are more rested. I’ll GLADLY pay to see the Marlins win a game as this big of a favorite.
The Pick: Rockies ML (+120) Risk 1 Unit
Written by
Peter is the Co-Founder and Director of Content Strategy of Justbaseball.com and the Co-Host of the Just Baseball Show.