Our five-game win streak came to a close on Sunday.

Easton Lucas Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110) was as bad of a pick as they come. He was throwing everything right down Main Street, leaving Seattle with the easiest pitches to hit in the world. Lucas was sent down after that start.

The under between the Phillies and the Marlins was a tough one. We were in the driver’s seat before Javier Sanoja hit a three-run home run in the eighth, and we lost. That was his first home run of the season, and Orion Kerkering’s ERA went from 1.17 to 4.50. It was unlucky, but that’s baseball for you—no regrets on that one.

Today, we are back with two picks. One is looking at a first five moneyline, and the other is a total. Let’s get those units back.

2025 Record: 20-13 (+7.02 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Yankees: Will Warren (5.17 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 15.2 Innings)

Guardians: Tanner Bibee (5.85 ERA, 1.50 WHIP in 20 Innings)

As President of the Will Warren fan club, even I can admit he and the Yankees are overvalued in this spot. At this point, Bibee is the much better starter and has had successful stints against the Yankees. The Guardians are at home where they typically thrive, and we get them as the underdog early.

The Guardians’ bullpen isn’t in a great spot, and the Yankees’ bullpen is. Considering the most significant edge in this game is the starting pitching matchup, I’m attacking this through the first five innings. Remember, if these two teams tie through five innings, we will receive our bet back.

Bibee threw twice against the Yankees in the postseason last year. His first start was not a good one, as he got into trouble, which meant the leash was short. Then, he dominated before Giancarlo Stanton hit a two-run home run that ruined his shutout. He also faced them back in 2023, allowing two runs through five innings. Generally, he’s been successful against the Yankees.

However, the Yankees have a new lineup. Stanton and Soto saw him well, but Stanton is hurt, and Soto is a New York Met. Against this current Yankees lineup, Bibee has racked up 23 PA. In those 23 PA, New York is hitting .238 with a minuscule .242 xwOBA while striking out 30% of the time. Those are fantastic numbers, and Bibee is due to bounce back after his rough start against Baltimore.

Bibee’s stuff has not fallen off, and his chase and whiff rates are similar to last year, but his strikeout rate has fallen nearly 10%. I don’t expect that to last; he’s fully capable of being the front-line starter he has been for the past two seasons. This is a great buy-low opportunity for him.

Will Warren has not looked like I hoped he would. I still believe in him long-term, but right now is not the time to be tailing him. His four-seam fastball and sweeper have performed well this season, but the issue is everything else. Warren’s sinker and changeup have gotten crushed, and he has no command of the strike zone. His saving grace this season has been his ability to get swings and misses, but this Guardians lineup is tough to strike out.

I don’t like this matchup at all for him.

The primary reason I’m concerned about Warren’s matchup today is his inability to get out left-handed hitters. He’s rocking a 5.65 FIP and 5.08 xFIP against left-handed bats compared to a 3.16 FIP and 2.98 xFIP against righties. Lefties have no problem seeing his fastball, and his changeup is getting destroyed. The Guardians’ lineup had eight left-handed bats in it last night. All of the elite bats for the Guardians are lefties: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Kyle Manzardo.

This is a terrible matchup for Will Warren, especially on the road, where he’s had his two worst starts of the season. Bibee has only made one start in Cleveland this season, and he didn’t allow a run. He’s been slightly better at home throughout his career, pitching to a 3.17 ERA and a .224 batting average versus a 3.63 ERA and a .239 batting average.

The Yankees’ offense has been elite against right-handed pitching, but the Guardians are also in the top ten in wRC+. The Guardians have a 125 wRC+ at home against righties this year, while the Yankees are at 118 on the road.

I make the Guardians -150 favorites through the first five innings, the most significant edge of the day. I would take this up to -125.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Dodgers: Dustin May (1.06 ERA, 0.76 WHIP in 17 Innings)

Cubs: Shota Imanaga (2.22 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 21 Innings)

These are two of the best pitchers in baseball through the first few weeks of the season, but in this matchup, I’m willing to fade. Wrigley is playing pretty neutral today with some slight wind blowing out, so this handicap is primarily based on the matchups. The total is a bit too low, considering how good these offenses are and how suspect the Cubs’ bullpen is.

This is the second time this season the Dodgers will face off against Shota Imanaga. They got blanked in Korea over four innings as Shota didn’t allow one hit. Generally speaking, the Dodgers have had a tough time squaring him up. His first start ever against them resulted in another four-inning shutout, and then at the end of last season, he allowed three runs over seven innings.

The Dodgers’ quality of contact against Imanaga has been average, despite the results being far below average. In 55 PA against the Dodgers’ current roster, he’s allowed a .319 xwOBA, a .443 xSLG, with an average exit velocity over 90 MPH.

The Dodgers were the best offense in baseball last year against lefties, and this is now the fourth time they’ve faced Imanaga. Shota excels with his four-seam fastball and splitter. Still, with an off-day yesterday, I have to imagine the Dodgers had the pitching machine throwing whiffle balls to emulate the induced vertical break on Shota’s four-seamer. It’s no surprise to me that Shota’s 2.5 earned run line is juiced to the over.

On the flip side, Dustin May is due to get hit up. We foolishly faded him against the Rockies, and he looked like a possessed wizard out there. This Cubs offense should be much harder for him, as it’s proven to be in the past.

May has recorded 25 PA against the Cubs’ current roster, and it hasn’t been pretty. A .438 xwOBA is elite, as is their .314 xBA and .476 xSLG. However, that was a few years ago, but it’s good that they’ve seen him before. The horizontal movement on his pitches won’t seem “alien-like” to these Cubs bats.

This is May’s most challenging test this season by far. He’s faced the Rockies, Nationals, and Braves, three bottom-half offenses against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs have been a top-ten offense this season against righties.

May is a great pitcher, but he won’t be able to maintain a 1.08 ERA for long. His SIERA is at 3.62, and I think that number is where his ERA eventually settles in at the end of the season. May has cut down the usage of his cutter and changeup, focusing on his sinker, sweeper, and four-seam fastball. The Cubs have performed well against that mix, putting up a .358 xwOBA. The Nationals have also performed against that mix, and that was the one start in which May allowed three runs.

I think both starters will struggle a bit, and while both bullpens are rested, I like these offenses to test them. There is plenty of familiarity there, and I can’t count out these offenses late in the game.

This is not a significant edge, but it’s worthy of a 0.75-unit play on the over 8. I make the total 8.9 runs, so I would take this up to 8.5 (-110).

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