I took the weekend off to get my mind right after a 0-2 day on Friday. This season has not gone according to plan; it’s my worst season ever since I started posting picks publicly in 2021. Baseball is a grind, and when it’s not going your way, it’s tough to keep going.

Luckily, our futures appear to be returning the units we’ve lost. That doesn’t mean I’m changing up how I do day-to-day picks, but it’s worth remembering and keeping in the back of our heads. Today, we head back to the diamond for two picks; one is a plus number.

2024 Record: 96-103 (-10.23 U)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray (3.65 ERA) vs. Andrew Abbott (3.70 ERA)

Usually, when taking an under, the starting pitching matchup is the main attraction. We certainly have a good one here, but I’m more intrigued with the bullpens in this matchup. Not only are they both solid, but they have plenty of rest going into this one. Even if the starting pitchers combined to allow five runs, I don’t see more than nine runs being scored in this one.

Sonny Gray is as solid as they come. All of his underlying ERA predictors are great, and he’s rocking a strikeout rate over 30% for the first time since the shortened 2020 season. He’s also supporting a 5.8% walk rate, the lowest of his career. Based on K-BB, this is the best Sonny Gray has looked throughout his career.

He comes into this game on a mini-hot streak. He’s thrown two straight seven-inning, two-run performances with 15 strikeouts to two walks. Gray got beat up the last time he faced the Reds, allowing six runs, three of them being earned, in 4.1 innings. I have faith that the veteran makes the proper adjustment and bounces back.

The Reds offense isn’t swinging the bat well right now. Over the last week, the Reds have a 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is below average. Over the last two weeks, they have a 100 wRC+. Since the All-Star break, they have a 93 wRC+. I project six innings while allowing three runs for Sonny Gray with upside for a better outing.

Andrew Abbott lines up to face the Cardinals. He had two very different starts this season against St. Louis. In his first start, he allowed six earned runs in six innings. In his second start, he only allowed two hits and two earned runs in five innings.

He does have something working in his favor. For whatever reason, since 2020, Cardinals games have gone under after a loss and facing a left-handed starter. The under is 51-25-2 (67.1%) (27.39% ROI).

Andrew Abbott can be moderately effective to hit this under. Remember, this is a total set at nine; we have some breathing room here. He is still a solid pitcher by the underlying metrics and surface-level stats, and he’s performed better at home and during night games this season.

The Cardinals have a good offense, putting up a 120 wRC+ against lefties over the last two weeks, but I don’t see Abbott getting destroyed to the point where this is out of reach. In his previous 11 starts at home, he’s averaging 2.1 runs per game. If he can stay within range over five to six innings, we should cruise.

The Reds bullpen has been sneaky awesome this season. They rank fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, ninth in xFIP. They had a few pitchers go yesterday, but nobody went over 16 pitches so everyone should be available. I don’t expect the Cardinals to score much at all after Abbott exits.

The Cardinals bullpen is also a borderline top-ten unit this season. They rank tenth in ERA, 13th in FIP, and 11th in xFIP. They had the off-day yesterday, so we should see their better arms come into play here after Gray exits. Even if they aren’t the better arms, the bullpen is good enough to limit damage.

Abbott’s struggles lately make this total too high. I don’t think he’s fallen off a cliff after a few bad outings. I’m not laying juice here if he turns into a pumpkin again, but it’s worth the wager on the under. Take it at nine, or limit the risk if it goes to 8.5.

The Pick: Under 9 (-120) Risk 1 Unit

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Brady Singer (3.03 ERA) vs. Pablo Lopez (4.74 ERA)

This feels like the spot where Brady Singer’s absurd underlying metrics start to come to fruition. I was looking toward the Twins on the ML, but it’s expensive. I looked towards the full game total, but Lopez is really tough to figure out right now. So, I’m backing the Twins to score at a plus price.

Brady Singer’s ERA predictors tell us his 3.03 ERA should not last for the rest of the season. His xERA is at 4.57, his FIP and xFIP are above 3.60, and his SIERA is at 3.86. Sooner or later he’s going to have a rough outing, and this feels like the spot where it happens.

The Twins are the number two offense in the league against right-handed pitching at home by wRC+. Since the All-Star break, the wRC+ is 138, sixth best in that span. Over the last two weeks, it grows toa 158 wRC+ and a .912 OPS, both the third best marks in the league.

Over the last week, they are hitting .313/.360/.477 against righties at home. This is a dangerous offense and a bad matchup for Singer.

Singer’s big issue this year is left-handed hitting. Lefties are slashing .296/.367/.493 for a .859 OPS. Compare that to righties, slashing .173/.225/.249. That is an insane difference, and the Twins have a lineup stacked with lefties, and righties that see Singer well.

This Twins lineup should feature five lefties; Castro, Kepler, Larnach, Wallner, and Santana. Watch out for Trevor Larnach in particular, as he’s 5-10 with a home run against Singer. All of these lefties have at least one extra-base hit against Singer.

The righties in the lineup see him well, especially Buxton. Byron Buxton is 7-15 against Singer with two home runs. Even players like Ryan Jeffers and Manuel Margot are a combined 4-11 against Singer.

When fading Singer, make sure it’s on the road. He has a 3.86 ERA on the road compared to a 2.50 ERA at home. Something about those home Royals…

His first start of the year was a seven-inning shutout where he struck out ten and only allowed three hits. Maybe I’m a psycho, but that makes me like this even more. I think the Twins make the adjustment and come out firing.

The Royals bullpen is nothing to be afraid of. They had an off-day yesterday, so they’ll be fresh, but it’s the 24th ranked bullpen ERA, 22nd ranked FIP, and 26th ranked xFIP. They added Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg at the deadline to help, but Harvey just hit the IL. Erceg is solid, but the Twins can hit any of these arms.

The Twins should have put up plenty of runs yesterday. They faced Tanner Bibee and the best bullpen in baseball and put up 11 hits but only three runs. In a much easier matchup, I see those runs coming in today.

It’ll be a great place to hit today, as we have 5-8 MPH wind blowing out and temperatures in the high 70s during game time. I project this at five runs, seeing the Twins getting three runs off Singer and two against the bullpen. At a plus number, I’m playing it.

The Pick: Twins Team Total Over 4.5 (+105) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500