The Rockies!!! Not only did they win the game 3-1, we hit our team total of over 2.5. We’ve only dipped our toes in the team totals, but both the White Sox and the Rockies won the games we were on. Gross me is here to stay, and I have another one that you likely want no part of, but value is value, and it’s right here for the taking.

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2024 Record: 112-115 (-7.59 U)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins @ 7:20 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler (2.63 ERA) vs. Edward Cabrera (5.33 ERA)

This one makes sense, which initially gave me a bit of pause. I checked some betting splits, and 7% of the money is on the Miami Marlins, which reminded me we’ll likely be among the handful of people backing Miami today. Right where we want to be.

The Miami Marlins are… hitting righties? They aren’t just showing up; they are an above-average team lately against right-handed pitching. Over the last two weeks, the Marlins have the ninth-best offense by wRC+ at 119.

They have the seventh-highest OPS in that span and the third-lowest strikeout rate. It doesn’t look flukey; they have the fifth-highest Hard-Hit rate in that span. They are consistently putting the bat on the ball against right-handed pitching.

It’s lefties they have no chance against. They have a 55 wRC+ against lefties over the past two weeks, no wonder they got destroyed by Ranger Suarez yesterday, but they still mustered two runs in that game.

Zack Wheeler is phenomenal. He’s currently second in CY Young odds in the National League and is arguably the best pitcher alive. Wheeler dominated August, rocking a 1.62 ERA over six starts. However, when he’s faced the Marlins in Miami, it hasn’t gone well.

He allowed six earned runs against the Marlins in Miami back in May, and even at Citizens Bank Park in June, the Marlins won 7-4. Over his last six starts against the Marlins, Miami has gone over this team total in five of them. The lone time they stayed under was in Philadelphia. The Marlins have scored 19 runs over Wheeler’s last three starts in Miami, albeit some of those runs were scored against the bullpen.

The books think Wheeler may not look his best today. He’s priced very similarly to Reynaldo Lopez yesterday. His fantasy score is very high, but it’s a number he’s cleared in five of his last six starts. His 1.5 earned run line is juiced to the over at -140, a line he’s been under in three of his previous six starts. He’s -160 to go over 4.5 hits, a line he’s only been over in three of his last six starts.

The Phillies have a top-ten bullpen in baseball, but I’m only worried about Matt Strahm. This is a divisional matchup. The Marlins have seen the Phillies bullpen plenty of times, and they have proven they can hit them later in the game. Strahm is a lefty, and the Marlins run and hide under the bench against lefties. He’s thrown 31 pitches in the last three days, so I doubt he comes in when other arms are rested. I’m willing to go to war against these righties.

This is an embarrassingly low team total. We bet the White Sox will go over 2.5 at -120 against Albert Suarez. The two teams we bet on were on the road, so they got guaranteed nine innings of hitting. The Marlins won’t, which gives us a discount. However, I find it hard to believe the Phillies won’t have a lead, and we’ll get an extra shot in the ninth. If we don’t hit in the ninth, the Marlins probably scored at least three runs already.

Three runs. That’s all we ask Miami. The White Sox and the Rockies did it; now it’s your turn.

The Pick: Marlins Team Total Over 2.5 (-110) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.