So close to a sweep!

We cashed the Orioles’ First 5 Innings ML (-105) without much of a sweat. The Orioles did go down 2-0 early after an Aaron Judge home run, but they put up a four-spot in the second inning, and that was all they needed to bring home the win. They scored another run in the bottom of the fifth, so even if the Yankees tied it, we would have won.

On the flip side, we got screwed on Landen Roupp over 4.5 strikeouts (+110). He had 12 two-strike counts, and on his last batter, the umpire said Gavin Sheets did not swing on a 3-2 count, leading to a walk. I posted the picture on my Twitter, and he definitely swung. Whatever, nothing we can do but move on. That’s baseball for you.

On a shorter slate, we are going big dog hunting in the Nationals vs the Phillies.

2025 Record: 27-18 (+8.57 Units)

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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Nationals: Brad Lord (4.87 ERA, 1.73 WHIP in 17.1 Innings)

Phillies: Taijuan Walker (2.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 22.2 Innings)

The Phillies are going for the sweep after winning the first two games of the series. They’ve done it impressively, scoring seven runs in both contests. However, with this pitching matchup at this price, I have my doubts they replicate that performance today. After diving into the numbers, this matchup is razor thin.

Let’s start with the reason this line is at +150 in the first place, Brad Lord. The Nationals’ 25-year-old isn’t off to a great start. His strikeout rate is below average, as is his walk rate. He’s having difficulties putting batters away, which has led to some underwhelming performances so far. However, there is a reason the Nationals keep trying him.

Lord has done a good job keeping the ball off the barrel, which has resulted in a low Hard-Hit rate and average exit velocity. It’s primarily soft contact, but there’s a lot of it. Due to his low strikeout rate and high walk rate, his xERA sits at 5.78. However, both his FIP and xFIP sit below 4.40, and his SIERA, which is my favorite ERA predictor, has him at 4.89.

Can he perform against the Phillies’ offense? No, probably not. I project him for 2.7 runs allowed over five innings of work. As long as he doesn’t get shelled, the Nationals will stay in this game. The Phillies’ offense is solid, but they don’t scare me. They rank 15th in wRC+ against righties this season. Over the last two weeks, they fell to 19th, and over the previous week, they sat in 18th. Not exactly the potent Phillies offense we are used to.

Brad Lord’s mix features a four-seam fastball, a slider, a sinker, and a changeup. The Phillies are a solid offense against that repertoire, ranking 12th in xwOBA at .349. Solid, but not as well as the Nationals match-up.

On the flip side, Taijuan Walker faces a Nationals team that he hasn’t been great against throughout his career. He faced them once last year, allowing three runs in 4.2 innings of work in a game the Phillies lost 6-4 at home. I see a similar story today.

Through 53 PA, the Nationals’ current roster is only hitting .170. I do expect that to change today, as their xBA sits at .263 with a .335 xwOBA and a .427 xSLG. I also expect Walker’s ERA to continue rising, as I think it is improbable that he will maintain an ERA below 3.00 for an extended period.

Walker’s 4.41 SIERA is likely what his ERA settles into at the end of the season. His FIP and xFIP are between 4.05 and 4.41, similar to those of Brad Lord. He’s also a back-end starter who can get crushed at any time, and the Nationals match up very well against him.

The Nationals have been the slightly better offense against right-handed pitching this year. They have a 104 wRC+ compared to the Phillies at 101. They have a .731 OPS compared to the Phillies at .715, and Washington has the higher Hard-Hit rate. The Nationals have been performing better over the last two weeks, and last week, when examining all those numbers.

The Nationals have not only been better in this split, but they have also crushed similar offerings to what Taijuan Walker will throw today. He’s a kitchen sink pitcher; Walker has a ton of different pitches to work with. His most used pitch is his cutter, but he also has a split-finger, sinker, slider, and four-seam. He’ll sprinkle the curveball in there, but only 7% of the time.

The Nationals crush those types of pitches against righties this season. They have a .378 xwOBA against that mix, the fifth-best mark in baseball. That’s nearly 30 points higher than the Phillies against Lord’s pitch mix.

The Nationals’ bullpen is underwhelming, but they have all their high-leverage arms ready to go. When trying to avoid a sweep, I think it’s likely we’ll see the best of what the Nationals have to offer. At the same time, how can anyone be scared of the Phillies’ bullpen? They rank 27th in ERA, and they have the Diamondbacks on deck. It’s not a guarantee we see the best of what the Phillies have in this one, especially if the Nationals can grab a lead.

This is an outrageous price for a divisional team trying to avoid the sweep against Taijuan Walker. Yes, Brad Lord isn’t any good, but the Nationals have the edge on offense today. The bullpen edge is so slim as well. The Phillies have the slightly better pitcher, but the difference is not substantial. My model on Rithmm makes the Nationals +109 in this one, representing a huge edge towards the underdog.

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