Jeffrey Springs allowed seven runs to the White Sox yesterday. Not ideal for an under.

We took the under 9 (+100) and it was nearly over after the second inning. The White Sox jumped all over Springs, scoring six runs in the first two innings. He was throwing more strikes, but his stuff looked terrible, and he was leaving hangers in the middle of the zone—credit to the White Sox for taking advantage of the situation.

Today, we rebound with two plus money underdogs. Get ready to sweat.

2025 Record: 24-15 (+8.80 Units)

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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals @ 1:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Mets: Tylor Megill (1.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in 24.2 Innings)

Nationals: Mitchell Parker (1.39 ERA, 0.93 WHIP in 32.1 Innings)

The Mets look vulnerable right now, and I want to take advantage with a scrappy Nationals team at home. Parker has excelled at Nationals Park, and Megill has his issues on the road. This entire Mets team has not performed on the road, especially offensively. Against a division rival at home, the Nationals can win the series, and I’m betting on them to do just that.

Megill has gotten off to a roaring start, and I view his development as real progress towards a front-line starter. His current 3.48 SIERA is a target for his ERA. I think when the season is all said and done, he will have pitched to an ERA in the mid-threes with plenty of strikeouts.

However, he won’t have a 1.09 ERA for long. When you have a walk rate over 10% and a Hard-Hit rate that sits in the 24th percentile, a lot of luck is thrown in there. For example, he hasn’t allowed a home run yet, a feat that is unlikely to last.

Megill faced the Nationals twice last season, pitching to a 3.27 ERA. He dominated them at Citi Field, throwing a six-inning shutout with only two hits allowed. At Nationals Park, he got crushed for five runs (four earned) over five innings. This has been a growing trend for Megill; he loves pitching at Citi Field much more than he does on the road.

He hasn’t allowed a run at home yet this year, and last year, his ERA on the road was 4.80 with a 4.97 ERA during the day. At home, he pitched to a 3.56 ERA and a 3.15 ERA at night. His career ERA is 5.37 on the road compared to a 3.53 ERA at home. Fading Megill on the road has been a profitable endeavor.

The Nationals still have a great offense at home against righties. Clay Holmes gave them the business, but they got to Senga, and I think Megill is in for a similar fate. The Nationals have the sixth-best OPS at home against righties at .806 with a 125 wRC+. This is a top ten offense in this specific spot right now. Especially with CJ Abrams back, this is a sneaky good offense with Dylan Crews heating up.

Mitchell Parker likely won’t maintain a 1.39 ERA for long, either. Similarly to Megill, Parker has major issues on the road. His are even more egregious, as his career road ERA is over six, but his ERA at home is 2.24. Luckily, we get him at home today.

Megill is more talented than Parker, but Parker can turn in a nice start here against a reeling Mets offense. Against lefties on the road this year, the Mets have a 69 wRC+, one of the worst marks in the league. Regardless of the pitcher’s handedness, the Mets’ offense on the road has been very disappointing. They are hitting .216 with a .666 OPS and an 87 wRC+, all well below league average.

No wonder the Mets are 12-1 at home, yet 7-7 on the road. They are playing average baseball on the road, while the Nationals are 8-6 to start the season at home.

The Nationals’ bullpen isn’t any good, but the Mets’ bullpen isn’t in a great spot either. AJ Minter will undergo an MRI today and will be unavailable as a result. The only Mets relievers on a good rest schedule are Ryne Stanek and Jose Butto. They mounted the comeback against Stanek, so I’d love to see him again. Butto is a dawg, hopefully the Nats can score against him, but I’m not counting on it.

While the Nationals lost 2-0 yesterday, both teams put up a .215 xBA, so both teams put up the same contact quality. While money continues to pour in on the Mets, I think the scrappy Nationals steal this one as the Mets continue to falter on the road. I make the Nationals +105 in this game, so I would take them down to +120.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies @ 3:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Reds: Nick Lodolo (2.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 29 Innings)

Rockies: Ryan Feltner (3.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 25.2 Innings)

This is my first time backing the Rockies this season to win a game, and it may be my last.

The Rockies are 4-22. They are on pace to win 25 games this season. They are worse than the White Sox and will rival last year’s White Sox team for one of the worst records in the modern era. The bullpen is horrific, the offense strikes out every at-bat, and the starting rotation is one of the worst in the league. So what am I doing backing them?

Even the worst team ever will win games at some point this season. They have their ace on the mound at home against a left-hander (Rockies better split) who has never pitched at Coors Field before. The Rockies have also hung in this series, only losing by a combined three runs.

We took the Reds’ 80+ wins this year as one of my favorite futures. I’m high on this team, and I have the Rockies power rated as the worst team in baseball by a decent margin. I still make the Rockies the favorite in this game.

That sounds crazy, but no matter how bad the Rockies are, it’s still hard to sweep a team at home. It’s even harder to do at Coors Field, as the Rockies have only been swept at home six times over the past two seasons (averaging 60 wins per season).

Each team plays approximately 26 or 27 home series per year, so it is infrequent for them to be swept; they are swept in about 11% of their home series.

For as bad as the Rockies are, they can show up at home. Three of their four wins have come at home; they are an insane 1-14 on the road. No matter how poorly they perform, they consistently win about 40% of their home games every year.

Then we get into the matchup, and we get the Rockies’ ace, Ryan Feltner. He’s gotten off to an excellent start, pitching to a 3.40 xERA. Feltner is the only Rockies starter worth paying attention to right now as Chase Dollander continues to settle in. I’m sure teams will be calling the Rockies at the deadline to ask about acquiring him.

He has bad numbers against the Reds’ current roster. Through 39 PA, Reds bats are hitting .389 with a .369 xwOBA. He dominated the Reds in Great American Ballpark, but got destroyed at Coors Field. It may happen again, but I think the Rockies’ bats come to play against Lodolo.

This is Lodolo’s first start ever at Coors Field, which generally isn’t a fun experience for the pitcher. You’re playing at high altitude, and the pitches don’t tend to move like they usually do. Hanging breaking balls are a common occurrence at Coors Field, and the Rockies have beaten up Lodolo before as well.

Lodolo only had one start against the Rockies last year, and they beat him up for four earned runs in 3.2 innings. Through 18 PA, the Rockies have a .375 batting average with a .383 xwOBA. Same as Feltner.

I’ll only ever think about backing the Rockies to score if they are facing a left-handed pitcher at home. They have a .761 OPS against lefties in Coors this year, the tenth-best mark of any team. The Reds’ offense has a .785 OPS against righties on the road this season. It’s not a significant gap.

The bullpen advantage is negligible in this game, as the Reds have used their high-leverage pitchers all series, given that each game has been close.

This should be a classic Coors game with a few lead changes, but I’ll dive the worst team ever not to get swept, especially at this price of +130. Knowing that many profitable systems favor home teams to avoid the sweep, and considering how rare it is to sweep the Rockies in Coors, I give the Rockies a boost on the moneyline. Knowing all that, I make the Rockies ML -104, giving them a 51% chance of winning this game. At +130, this is my best bet of the day, and I would play it down to +114.

UPDATE: Feltner got scratched, so I re-bet at +138 for the same amount. I make the Rockies +104 with the pitching change, so at +138, it’s showing the same value.

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