We’re coming off another profitable day! Opening Day was fun for us; we went 2-1 and picked up a unit. Our full season record improved to 5-1.

We took the under in Mets vs. Astros, the lowest-scoring game on the slate, ending 3-1. Sonny Gray went over his 5.5 strikeout line, finishing with six. Unfortunately, we lost on Derek Hill Under 0.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs. He put a great swing on Paul Skenes and ended that bet in his first at-bat. Shoutout to Derek Hill; he’s got my respect.

I made no bets yesterday because I saw no value on the board. Today, I have one play at plus money to stay hot.

2025 Record: 5-1 (+3.49 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox @ 2:15 AM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Angels: Jose Soriano (3.42 ERA, 3.80 FIP in 113 Innings)

White Sox: Jonathan Cannon (4.49 ERA, 4.65 FIP in 124 innings)

If you backed the futures I gave out this offseason, we are heavily invested in the White Sox’s success for this season. I have them projected for 58 wins this year, so over 53.5 wins is one of my favorite futures of the year. In the “players I’m high on” section of the article, I wrote about Sean Burke, so I was happy to see him dominate on Opening Day. I had no interest in fading the White Sox on Thursday, but I think the Angels will get the best of them in game two.

The White Sox have a lot of young talent, but I don’t view Jonathan Cannon as a big part of that young core. Right now, I have him as the fifth best starter in this White Sox rotation, behind Sean Burke, Martin Perez, Davis Martin, and Shane Smith.

Cannon is coming off a below-average season last year, relying on soft contact to stay afloat. He’s well below average in the strikeout department and about league average in allowing walks. Cannon doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, but his saving grace was his ability to stay in the upper third in hard-hit rate. I’m not sure why the White Sox like him so much. he didn’t perform well in Triple-A in 2024, was below average in the big leagues last year, and got crushed in spring.

Spring training results should be taken with a grain of salt, but I want to ensure the stuff looks good. His stuff did not, striking out only seven hitters in 11.2 IP while hitting three batters and walking three more and allowing 13 earned runs. Last season, he started three games in April and pitched to an ERA over seven. He’s on my “fade list” until proven otherwise.

Jose Soriano is on my “tail list” for 2025. He was solid in the first half but looked electric in the second half, pitching to a 2.45 ERA in 25 innings. His calling card is his ground-ball rate, which finished with the third highest rate among all pitchers with at least 110 innings last season. In that second half, he raised his strikeout rate from 20% to 23%, and his FIP dropped from 4.12 to 2.74.

He throws a nasty 97 MPH sinker, and his knuckle curve, splitter, and slider all garnered a 30% whiff rate or higher last year. His strikeout and groundball rates were even higher in spring training, so he’s a guy I want to follow until proven otherwise.

Beyond a significant starting pitching mismatch, I think the market overreacted to the White Sox’s win. It was a close game until Manager Ron Washingington left a rookie with no service time pitch another inning, and that’s when the game got out of hand.

There is no worse PR than throwing out an infielder to pitch the rest of the game on Opening Day against the team that won 41 games last year. My guess is plenty of people fading Chicago on Opening Day and got crushed, so many are likely hesitant to go back. That’s when we come in, and we have to remember, while we would like the White Sox to improve this year, this is one of the worst teams in baseball.

After both starters exit, we should have a lead. It sounds crazy, but I like the back-end bullpen for the Angels. Brock Burke has been a consistent high-leverage arm for the Rangers, Ben Joyce touches 106 MPH with the fastball, and Kenley Jansen is a proven commodity. If Soriano can give them 5 to 6 innings, I will feel very confident in those three arms. I doubt Ron Washinton will mess around here again; he can’t lose the first two games to Chicago.

I have the true ML closer to -190. I project the Angels to win this game 66.9% of the time, but then adjusting for home field. You are welcome to lay the juice on the ML, but I can’t pass up plus money on the run line. Chicago was 68-94 against the run line last year, the worst in baseball. As long as you can get -105 or better on BetMGM, it’s a play for me.

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