Another winner! What a sweat! We took Taijuan Walker under 4.5 strikeouts on Thursday. He finished with four but had three through the first three innings. Credit to him; he looked great, but luckily, we still won.

We are back again today with a player prop and a team total wager that should continue to keep us in the green.

2025 Record: 10-3 (+6.33 Units)

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Guardians: Tanner Bibee (0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP in 5.2 Innings)

Angels: Jack Kochanowicz (3.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 6 Innings)

We won’t be looking at the Guardians’ pitching plan against the Angels today in this game. I love Tanner Bibee, but the Guardians’ bullpen has had some heavy work over the last few days, including last night. They threw all their high-leverage arms, so I’m not exactly sure how they’ll maneuver through the later innings. I’d rather focus on the Angels’ pitching plan against the Guardians’ offense, which is much better than the market gives them credit for.

The Guardians scored eight runs yesterday, but their offense didn’t look like it was heating up. They still have a below-average wRC+ against righties this year, and their xBA yesterday was just .258. Only three balls were hit over 100 MPH, and two were home runs from Jose Ramirez. He hit three home runs in this game; let’s see him do it again. That was the third time the Guardians scored more than four runs, and one of those times, it took extra innings to do it.

Jose Soriano allowed five runs but only four balls to be hit over 95 MPH. They threw Caden Dana at the end, a rookie looking to eat some innings, and he allowed two earned runs. Due to this, all of their high-leverage arms are available.

Jack Kochanowicz is… decent? I’ve liked what I’ve seen from the 24-year-old right-hander. He had a welcome to the big leagues first two starts, but once he settled in, he was solid in 10 starts in the second half and pitched to a 3.61 ERA. In his first start this season, he threw six innings while allowing two earned runs to the White Sox.

He’s also typically a bit better against left-handed dominant lineups. The Guardians could have as many as seven lefties in today’s lineup if they decide to go with Nolan Jones over Jhokensy Noel. Kohanowicz has pitched to a 4.20 FIP versus lefties compared to a 4.90 FIP against righties.

His earned run line is -165 to go under 2.5 earned runs, and my model agrees, making that line closer to -180. He’s not projected to go very long, settling at around five innings. He should be effective against a below-average Guardians offense.

The Angels have good high-leverage arms, and they are all fresh. If this game is close, which it should be, we will likely see Ben Joyce and Kenley Jansen, two of the better relievers in baseball. Neither has allowed a run so far. I like both, especially early, when Ben Joyce is fresh and throwing gas, and Kenley is still very effective. Reid Detmers threw 15 pitches yesterday but should be available in a pinch.

I project Kochanowicz to allow two runs through five innings and the Angels’ bullpen to allow 1.9 runs. I make the Guardians team total 3.9, making the true line on this closer to -160. I would take this pick up to -140, or you can gamble on the Angels ML.

Player Prop #1

I’m a fan of Andre Pallante due to his ability to keep the ball on the ground. In his first start this season, 75% of his outs were groundouts. Last season, he rocked a 61.6% groundball rate. He’s also solid at keeping the ball off the barrel, which has resulted in a solid starting pitcher. However, he’s not a big strikeout guy, and the Red Sox bats are hot.

Pallante only struck out three Minnesota Twins in his first start, and that’s been a growing trend for him. He’s been under 4.5 strikeouts in six of his last ten starts (60%), but it’s his road starts I’m looking at. Pallante had nine road starts the previous year, going under 4.5 strikeouts in seven (78%).

Pallante’s strikeout rate started to dwindle in the second half, only registering a 5.79 K/9 compared to a first half with a 6.85 K/9. His stuff is solid in the zone, but he’s not a pitcher that will get you to chase outside the zone (30th percentile). He can get to two strikes, but he’s trying to get you to make weak contact on the ground, not necessarily trying to get the punch out.

Pallante hasn’t faced the Red Sox much, but he has compiled 16 PA against the Red Sox’s current roster. They’ve only seen him as a reliever when the stuff was better in one inning spurts, and yet only one of them has struck out, Connor Wong. In 16 PA, they have one strikeout, so his strikeout rate against the Red Sox is just 6.3%.

This line is high because the Red Sox struck out a metric ton in the first few games, then struck out 10 times against Charlie Morton. I’m willing to bet Pallante’s strikeout stuff doesn’t carry over on the road in Fenway against a Red Sox lineup heating up.

I project Pallante to finish with 3.9 strikeouts, giving this play a 61.5% chance of going under 4.5 strikeouts. It’s the same projection we had for Taijuan Walker, and he stayed under at the same line. I would take this up to -140, or you can look for a 3.5 K line and go for the under at +145 or better, but cut down the risk to a half unit.

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