Yesterday was pure bliss.

Nationals ML (+160) was a rollercoaster. It looked so good early, as the Nationals held a 3-0 lead going into the eighth. Jake Irvin was phenomenal, but the Nationals’ bullpen had other plans. It wasn’t all their fault; the Mark Vientos triple was a 75 MPH bloop that just bounced in front of Dylan Crews, giving the Mets the lead. Then, the Nationals scored two in the ninth to win it.

Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-110) was a borderline miracle. He looked terrible through the first three innings, but that’s why we took the play. This was such a low line that a decent performance would get him over. He struck out Spencer Steer for his fourth strikeout, gave up a hit, and was then removed from the game. Talk about a close call.

We have now won three straight picks, and four out of the last five have been winners. Let’s stay hot with my favorite play of the day.

2025 Record: 24-14 (+9.80 Units)

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Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics @ 4:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

White Sox: Jonathan Cannon (4.81 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in 24.1 Innings)

Athletics: Jeffrey Springs (5.84 ERA, 1.66 WHIP in 22.1 Innings)

If you’ve been following my articles over the last two seasons, you know I’m not a fan of Jonathan Cannon. I have him as the worst starter on the White Sox, which makes him one of the lowest-rated starters in the league. That’s why I like this under so much, this total should not be as high as it is.

We know A’s games at Sutter Health Park have been consistently going over, and yesterday’s game ended 6-5. However, the total is even lower today than it was yesterday, even though the starting pitching matchup is much worse on the surface. This total still isn’t low enough.

The White Sox may go with an opener again in front of Cannon, but he should see the bulk of the innings. Wherever his innings land, I expect them to be solid. For all the hype the A’s offense gets, they haven’t exactly been elite in spots like these.

Against right-handed pitching at home, they have a .727 OPS, the 18th-best mark in the game. 112 wRC+ is solid, but when compared to other teams, it places them only 16th. It’s such a young and exciting group that the market has overvalued them. It’s an entertaining team to watch due to its potential, but it’s not quite there yet.

Cannon also has some impressive numbers against this current A’s lineup. Through 37 PA, A’s bats are only hitting .212 with a .296 xwOBA. Brent Rooker will be an issue, as he’s 3-5 and sees him well, but the rest of the lineup combined is just 4-28 (.143 AVG).

I don’t expect Cannon to dominate, but I think he’ll limit damage. I’m expecting three earned runs through five innings, which will keep us on track to hit this under. He already tossed a four-inning shutout against the A’s on April 16th.

I’m expecting a big bounce-back for Jeffrey Springs today. His command has entirely gone out of whack, but there isn’t a drop-off in stuff to be concerned about. Springs is still a very talented pitcher who’s in a bit of a funk right now, but a date against this White Sox lineup is the perfect remedy to get him back on track. He has a career 3.54 ERA and a 3.62 SIERA; Springs is an excellent pitcher.

The White Sox offense against left-handed pitching is abysmal. They have a 55 wRC+ against southpaws this season, the fourth-worst mark in baseball. This isn’t new, as they had the single worst offense in baseball last year against lefties.

I’d have confidence in any lefty in this spot at home, but Springs has also succeeded against the White Sox’s current lineup before. Through 42 PA against the White Sox’s current roster, Springs has a solid 24% strikeout rate with a .243 batting average against (.222 xBA) with a .305 xwOBA. All of those numbers are well above average.

He faced the White Sox just two starts ago, allowing three runs in five innings. I expect him to outperform that today, as Andrew Vaughn’s three-run home run was the only real damage he saw. Outside of that, he allowed just two hits and no runs.

It’s also an unusually cold and cloudy day in Sacramento. That park is usually red hot and plays towards the bats, but today the park is playing close to neutral, another reason why this total is too high. At gametime, it’s supposed to be 59 degrees with some rain and slight sideways winds. That’s not ideal for bats.

Both bullpens are in fine spots in this one as well. Nine runs give us some breathing room as well, as I think both starters will be successful in this one. I have this total projected at 8.3, so at 9 at (-102), that is showing a lot of value, especially at that price. I would take this to 9 (-120).

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