Our third winner in a row was sweat-free! Most of the games went under the total yesterday, but the Brewers vs. Blue Jays game was the lowest-scoring game on the slate. I love to see that as an under bettor.

Focusing on my favorite pick has brought results, so I’ll stick to that for now. Let’s make it four in a row with my favorite total of the day.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 60-71 (-13.12 U)

Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Mitchell Parker vs. Kenta Maeda

This isn’t my favorite starting pitching matchup in the world, but I love how the bullpens are set up, and I don’t have much faith in either offense. Comerica is a giant pitcher’s park, and we have wind blowing in. If these pitchers can limit damage, we should cruise to an under.

Can Kenta Maeda limit the damage? If we were ever going to bet with Maeda, it has to be in Detroit. Maeda has a 3.55 ERA at home in 25.1 innings compared to a 10.80 ERA on the road. It has a lot to do with home runs. Maeda has one of the worst HR/9 rates in the majors, but I don’t expect the Nationals to tap into that with the wind blowing in.

The Nationals have the sixth-lowest ISO and seventh-lowest slugging percentage this season against right-handed pitching. They rarely hit the long ball, ranking sixth lowest in home runs hit against righties this season.

Since May 1st, they have the fifth-lowest ISO and second-lowest slugging percentage in the league. Overall, they rank 24th in wRC+ since May 1st; over the last two weeks, they have a 92 wRC+. Over the previous 30 days, we have been looking at an 84 wRC+. Maeda does have a 4.87 xERA, so his ERA over six is due to come down at some point.

After I looked into it, it made sense that Maeda’s earned run line is at 1.5, albeit juiced to the over. The books think he’s going five innings of two run ball, and I totally see why. Maeda threw two pitches in his last start before exiting with an abdominal strain. The team said he healed up nicely and is fully ready to go. Giving an older pitcher extra rest when the injury doesn’t seem to be severe has me trusting him to weather the storm. We aren’t asking him to dominate, just keep us in the game.

I trust Mitchell Parker. How can you not? He’s posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.55 xERA against elite offenses. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start, which includes facing the Orioles, Dodgers, Astros, Guardians, and Braves twice.

The Tigers against lefties are less demanding of a matchup. Over the last 30 days, the Tigers have a 63 wRC+, which is the third worst in the league. Over the previous two weeks, they have had an 86 wRC+, but it’s only in 40 PA. Since May 1st, they have a 72 wRC+ and a .603 OPS, the second lowest in the league.

All we need to be in a good spot is for these starters to allow five runs or less in the first five innings. That’s even pushing it, as Parker’s 2.5 earned run line is juiced towards the under, and Maeda is at 1.5 juiced towards the over. The books set the first five total juiced to the under at 4.5. If we get that, we should cruise with how these bullpens are set up.

With an off-day yesterday, everyone is ready to go. For the Nationals, we have Law (2.79 ERA), Floro (1.11 ERA), Finnegan (1.73 ERA), Harvey (3.06 ERA), and Barnes (4.35 ERA). We won’t need all of them if Parker can throw six innings, but we have them if needed.

The Tigers have an edge in the bullpens; everyone is ready to rock. Only Mason Englert and Joey Wentz pitched on Saturday, and neither threw over 17 pitches. I trust a lot of their arms: Miller (3.72 ERA), Foley (3.04 ERA), Vest (3.00 ERA), Holton (4.13 ERA), and Englert (4.35 ERA). Chafin has a 5.14 ERA this year, but he’s still a trustworthy arm.

The scoring should be minimal in the later innings, but it’s similar to yesterday’s cap—five runs from the starters, two from the bullpens. Yesterday’s under was the lowest-scoring game of the day, and this one has a sneaky chance of replicating that.

Even if Maeda has a blow-up, Parker can keep us in this game, and the Tigers bullpen is rested enough to will us to a win. I lean toward the Nationals on the ML, but I think Maeda can pitch well, so I’m going with the under. Take this down to 8 (-105) and lower risk to 8 (-120).

The Pick: Under 8.5 (-120) Risk 0.75 Units