The Padres showed up big on Sunday, beating the Dodgers 10-2 and cashing our +130 ticket on the ML. I didn’t see any value on yesterday’s board, but today I do.

We are now +5.6 Units in the playoffs so far; let’s build on that today with our pick in Phillies vs. Mets. Walker Buehler is our recurring guest on the Just Baseball Show, so when he pitches, I will not be betting on those games. I have no opinion on Game 3 between the Padres and Dodgers.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 5:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Aaron Nola (3.57 ERA) vs. Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA)

We went through this game last night on the Just Baseball Show, and my gut feeling was the Mets win in the end. However, I brought up going with the Phillies through the first five innings out of respect for Aaron Nola. The Phillies have solid numbers against Manaea, and Nola has shown up in the biggest moments before.

I looked deeper. It was interesting that the Phillies opted for Cristopher Sanchez in game two. He has much better numbers at Citizens Bank Park, so I understand it, but Nola has been the number two guy for a while now. After losing game one, I thought they’d still go with him. They didn’t, and now this is the first time Nola will pitch since September 29th against the Nationals.

He didn’t end the season on a good note. In September, he put up a 4.91 ERA over six starts. One of those starts was against the Mets, allowing six earned runs in 4.1 innings at Citizens Bank Park. Nola did throw a complete game shutout against the Mets on May 14th, but that lineup was different from what it is today.

The Mets were 19-22 then, and the Phillies were rolling at 30-13. The Mets lineup had a struggling Lindor, and Brett Baty, Joey Wendle, and Omar Narvaez had spots in that lineup.

What worries me about Nola beyond his recent struggles against the Mets: too many rest days. He’ll be on eight days rest in this one, so I looked up whether extra rest has benefitted him, or hurt him.

Over his career, when he’s on regular rest, he’s rocking a fantastic 3.21 ERA. When he’s on shorter rest, he has a 4.12 ERA. When he has six days or longer of rest, his ERA is 4.03. So, he takes a step back when he’s off his normal routine. However, it’s been extra worrisome this season.

Aaron Nola has four starts this year with six or more rest days. He’s thrown 17 innings in those four starts and allowed 20 earned runs for an ERA of 10.59. Wild.

Manaea’s career numbers against the Phillies aren’t ideal, but respectfully, Manaea’s career isn’t that great. After making a few tweaks to his pitch repertoire, he’s had a resurgent season with the Mets, and it’s worked wonders for him. He’s throwing his sinker more than ever before, and he also started using his cutter again. His second half was excellent, putting up a 3.48 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP.

Manaea not only ended the year on a solid note, putting up a 3.32 ERA in September and a solid performance in the wild card series, but he was excellent against the Phillies in his last start. He threw seven innings, allowing three hits and three earned runs. Two of the runs came off home runs from Schwarber and Castellanos, but the rest of the lineup went hitless, and they scored that third run in the eighth inning.

When it comes to the bullpens, it’s anyone’s guess. Both teams can hit both bullpens, and we know how games like these often go; there is magic in the end. The market is underrating the home-field advantage in this game. The Phillies were a lousy road team this year, going 41-40 compared to an absurd 54-27 record at home. The Mets went 46-35 at home this year to just 43-38 on the road.

Beyond the record, the Phillies are so intimidating at home because they feed off that crowd. Also, when both teams’ bullpens can’t be trusted, being able to bat in the bottom half of the inning is an extra plus. They’ll always get a shot to win the game in the end; we remember what the Mets did the last time they played a game three (shoutout Pete Alonso).

Taking the stadium entirely out of it, I make the Mets -115 favorites based on the matchup. I’m worried about Nola’s chances against a Mets team that crushed him and his lousy track record on extended rest. Manaea has proven to be a formidable pitcher, and his recent outing against the Phillies, combined with a solid outing in his first playoff start this year, gives me confidence in him.

Factoring in home-field advantage moves this line to -125 for me. The Mets should be the favorites in this game, and considering they are not, that’s where my money will be today.

The Pick: Mets ML (-105) Risk 1.05 Unit