Shohei Ohtani! We took over 1.5 bases yesterday at +105, and he came through with a big-time home run. We also sprinkled on him to steal a base; unfortunately, he didn’t. We still netted 0.8 units and have now made 4.3 units this postseason.

We have two games today, but I’m focused on this Padres vs Dodgers series. I think one team has the edge on the mound today.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:03 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish (3.31 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA)

I said in the intro that one of these teams has the pitching advantage today. While Flaherty has been the better pitcher this year, his numbers against the Padres are well below average, and Darvish has historically owned the Dodgers. Blake Treinen is a difference-maker in the bullpen; he likely will not be available for this one. Every Padres reliever should also be available today, so a +130 price on the Padres is far too much.

Momentum is fundamental in the playoffs, and while the Dodgers won, I didn’t feel as if they fully grabbed it from San Diego. This is still an extremely competitive series between two phenomenal teams. Ultimately, this series comes down to the final game, with both teams splitting at each ballpark. Dodgers win game one; Padres win game two.

Yu Darvish has owned the Dodgers for years. It’s rare you see a sample of over 250 PA against a current lineup, but Darvish has that under his belt. Through 264 PA, the Dodgers’ current roster is hitting .204, with a .272 xwOBA, a.328 xSLG, while striking out 25.8% of the time. He’s thrown against them three times this year; 1.72 ERA in 15.2 IP and they are hitting .145 against him.

Darvish is a veteran of the big moment. He’s rocking a 4.19 career postseason ERA, but a World Series run for the Dodgers in 2017 is the outlier. If we remove that blowup, he has a 3.12 ERA in the playoffs over 54.2 IP.

As we discussed yesterday, the Dodgers crush fastball/slider pitchers. I’m not surprised that they hit up Cease, especially Ohtani. Shohei is just 1-5 with two strikeouts and one single against Darvish. Darvish excels because he keeps this team guessing; he has eight unique pitches he can go to. I doubt he dominates them, but I think he outperforms Flaherty.

Jack Flaherty has had a better season than Darvish has, but his numbers against San Diego are worrisome. He faced the Padres in his last start of the season, allowing three runs in five innings. Through 83 PA, which is a sizeable sample, the Padres are hitting .279 against him, but the quality of content is well above average. The Padres have a .386 xwOBA, and a .483 xSLG and are walking 16.9% of the time while only striking out at a 22.9% rate.

Let me explain xwOBA, as it’s a stat I always use. “Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle, and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

In the same way that each batted ball is assigned an expected batting average, every batted ball is given a single, double, triple, and home run probability based on the results of comparable batted balls since Statcast was implemented Major League-wide in 2015. For most batted balls, this is achieved using exit velocity and launch angle. As of 2019, “topped” or “weakly hit” balls also incorporate a batter’s seasonal Sprint Speed.”

A league average xwOBA is .315. The entire lineup outside Jake Cronenworth has a .322 xwOBA or higher against Flaherty. They hit him hard consistently, and with their backs against the wall, I think he has a rough start.

The Padres will have every reliever available, as will the Dodgers, except Blake Treinen, who may be the best of them all. Both teams have fantastic bullpens, but I give the Padres the edge in this game.

The Dodgers lineup is fantastic, and they have Shohei Ohtani. They should be the favorites in this game, but not this much of a favorite. I make the Padres +110 in this game, so anything down to +120 is a play for me on the Padres.

The Pick: Padres ML (+130) Risk 1 Unit