No picks yesterday due to Walker Buehler starting. Due to his affiliation with our podcast, I’m not allowed to bet on games where he is involved. On Tuesday, we cashed in on Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 strikeouts, finishing with four. It was scary early on, but as the game developed, his command got away from him and he was lifted after just 4.1 innings.

Our total for the playoffs is now +7.03 Units in the green. Today, we are looking at another player prop for NLCS Game 4 between the Mets and Dodgers. I don’t love anything in Guardians vs Yankees, but I do want to back Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA)

We discussed this game last night on the Just Baseball Show. Jack and I weren’t sold on a winner; it should be anybody’s ballgame. We were both aligned on Yamamoto having a good day, and I want to attack his props rather than rely on the Dodgers’ bats to hit Jose Quintana.

The air is crisp in Queens. We saw Walker Buehler touch 21 inches of induced vertical break on his fastball, something we have yet to see from him this season. Buehler finished with six strikeouts, his highest mark since he faced the Rockies at home on September 21st.

Joe Musgrove’s shiny ear was a heated debate as the spin rate on his pitches was way up a few years ago. Pitchers have a better grip on the ball; strikeouts have been plentiful at Citi Field this postseason. Ranger Suarez had eight strikeouts in Citi Field, and Quintana had six. Nola had eight strikeouts, and Manaea had six.

Last night, Buehler went crazy, but Severino only had three. If we look at Statcast Park Factors, Citi Field ranks 8th regarding strikeouts. It ranks number five if we only look at night games.

Yamamoto faced the Mets back in April. He went six innings while allowing three earned runs, finishing with nine strikeouts. He won’t have that long of a leash today, and it wasn’t the same Mets lineup. He did face Lindor, Marte, Alonso, Nimmo and Alvarez. The first four struck out at least once against Yamamoto, but Alvarez didn’t because he only had one AB and was removed in that game.

The scare is that Yamamoto will have a short leash in this game. In an ideal world, Dave Roberts wants five innings out of Yamamoto today, and then he can hand it off to the bullpen. If Yamamoto is pitching well, he’ll let him keep going. He used multiple high-leverage guys yesterday. I doubt Roberts wants Knack back in this game to bridge the gap, and Honeywell threw 57 pitches three days ago.

That’s fully priced into these lines, as he’s been over 4.5 strikeouts in 14 of his last 20 starts (70%), and over 5.5 strikeouts in 11 of his previous 20 starts (55%). Yamamoto struck out north of 28% of batters this season, sitting in the 85th percentile in baseball. Even if Yamamoto only goes four innings, he has a great shot of clearing these numbers.

There is little history here as Yamamoto debuted this year after signing a $325M contract this offseason. He was signed for games like these, and after watching his last start, he’s about to go on a roll.

He only has three strikeouts this postseason, but his two postseason starts were against a Padres offense that has not only crushed him all year, but they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball by a large margin. Going from the Padres to the Mets is an upgrade in the strikeout department.

The Mets have the 12th-highest strikeout rate at home this season at 22.9%. For reference, the Padres are at 18%. If we look at the second half of the Mets, they had a 25.4% strikeout rate at home against righties, the fifth highest in the league. During this span, they have a 129 wRC+.

The offense is fantastic, but they have a lot of swing-and-miss in their game, especially at home. Yamamoto’s main five pitches are his four-seamer, splitter, curveball, cutter, and slider. Against that mix, the Mets have the 12th-highest whiff rate in baseball.

The Mets know that Yamamoto is a reverse splits guy; he’s worse against right-handed bats. Right-handed bats have a .744 OPS against him, while lefties are at .526. Carlos Mendoza, the Manager for the Mets, said in his postgame interview, “I would anticipate our righties to be in the lineup tomorrow.”

That’s a good idea if you’re the Mets, but while Yamamoto is more susceptible to righties, his strikeout rate is slightly higher against right-handed bats. He’s posted a 10.88 K/9 and a 28.6% strikeout rate against right-handed bats, but against lefties, the K/9 is 10.13 and a 28.5% rate.

Yamamoto grabbed a lot of momentum in his last start against the Padres. This is his breakout game regarding strikeouts after striking out just three batters in his first eight innings of the playoffs. I could see him giving up a few runs, but the outs he does get are of the strikeout variety.

I don’t see why he can’t replicate Buehler’s strikeout numbers from yesterday. Buehler got a ton of whiffs on his knuckle curve, and Yamamoto has a curveball that isn’t much different. He also has that wipe-out splitter. Yamamoto lives on the spin, and this park is meant for those pitchers. It’s dry, cold, and easy to grip, and he racks up six strikeouts today. We understand the possibility of a short leash at these prices, but I’ll take my chances.

The Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130) Risk 1 Unit, Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+270) Risk 0.25 Units