On fire! We hit on the Guardians ML (+105) yesterday as well as Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100), netting us 2.05 units. The Matthew Boyd prop is some of my best work, as his first four outs were all strikeouts.

Our total for the playoffs is now +9.13 Units in the green. Today, we are looking at Game 1 of the NLCS between the Mets and Dodgers. Game 1s are always the toughest to bet, as we are still determining how both teams will respond. I did find us a play for today, and it’s at another plus number. Let’s stay hot.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:15 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Kodai Senga (3.38 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (2.72 ERA)

I’m already in love with this series, which has yet to start. Feels like a meeting between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. As much as I want to unload bets on this game out of excitement, I must remember that it’s the first game. I get more confident in my bets as the series goes along, so I can see who’s hot and who’s not. This is also not a divisional matchup, so these two teams have little history.

My eyes went to the player prop market for this game. The money line and total are priced appropriately, but one hitter is getting left to the side when he shouldn’t be. I’m siding with a player on the Mets because Flaherty is projected to go at least five innings, while Senga should have a much shorter leash.

While these two teams don’t play each other much, one player on the Mets loves playing at Dodger Stadium. Pete Alonso has played 18 games at Dodger Stadium. In those 18 games, he’s slashing .312/.338/.649 for a .987 OPS. He has 24 hits, seven being home runs, tallying 18 RBIs. He sees the ball well at this stadium.

Pete Alonso only has 3 ABs against Flaherty. The Mets have not seen him this year, but when Alonso saw Flaherty, he excelled. He’s 2-3 with a double against Flaherty, sporting a .380 xwOBA.

Typically, against a right-handed pitcher, you want to target a left-handed bat. Not in Flaherty’s case, as he’s a reverse splits pitcher. That means that right-handed bats have had more success against him than lefties. Alonso hits both lefties and righties at a similar clip.

Right-handed bats put up a .730 OPS with a .315 wOBA against him this season, while left-handed bats have a .604 OPS and a .264 wOBA. The right-handed bat with the best contact quality against Flaherty and tons of success at Dodger Stadium is my pick to click today.

The playoffs are all about momentum, and Pete grabbed some in his last series against the Phillies. He went over this line in three of the four games against the Phillies, and we all remember that home run off Devin Williams. Ever since that hit, the man has been heating up.

He was left without a hit in the first game against the Phillies, but he had a 107 MPH sac fly nearly leaving the park and a 97 MPH lineout that went 343 feet. He hit a home run in game two but also had a 101 MPH flyout. He went yard in game three and then 2-3 in game four. The Polar Bear is hitting the ball hard right now, and this price is too reasonable to pass up.

I’m also sprinkling on him to hit a home run. 25 of Pete’s 34 home runs this year came against right-handed pitching. Flaherty has 71 total innings pitched this year against right-handed bats compared to left-handed, but he’s given up 14 home runs compared to just ten against lefties.

We will take advantage of an awesome promo on BetMGM today. Bet $10 on a home run, and if that player hits it into the bullpen, we are eligible for a share of 50K in bonus bets. I already liked two right-handed hitters today, and the bullpen in left field is calling our name. So we will have two standard straight bets and two $10 sprinkles on home runs.

Click this link and use promo code “JUSTBASEBALL” for a first bet offer of up to $1500 back in bonus bets, plus entering into this bullpen jackpot.

The Pick: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (+125) Risk 1 Unit, $10 Promo on Pete Alonso Home Run (+400)