Pete Alonso came up short yesterday of hitting his over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs at +125. He went 0-3 with a walk. I thought he had a garbage-time home run in him at the end, but he just got under a hanging breaking ball. That stinks, but we can’t win them all.

Our total for the playoffs is now +8.08 Units in the green. Today, we are returning to the NLCS between the Mets and Dodgers. Game 1s are always the toughest to bet, so I’m staying away from the Guardians vs Yankees series to get a feel. Game 1s have not been kind to me, but when I can see how the teams come out early, we can capitalize on that in game two.

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New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA) vs. Bullpen Game (– ERA)

I posted this right after Senga gave up the first two runs. People ran to the comments to defend the Mets, saying Senga didn’t have it. The Dodgers went on to score seven more runs. It didn’t matter who the Mets threw out there.

I didn’t bet the Mets ML yesterday, even though I wanted to, because I felt a dark cloud run over me; the Dodgers are the juggernaut we all feared they could become. It feels like Anakin Skywalker turning into Darth Vader. I’m terrified of them.

Bullpen games are often challenging to handicap. All it takes is one arm not to have their best stuff, and the game can unravel. On the flip side, it’s so tough for an offense to continue to adjust to a new arm every inning. This Dodgers pitching staff shut down an explosive Padres offense in their first game at Petco Park. That’s why it’s tricky: What type of show will we get?

If you were to trust in a bullpen game right now, it’s the Dodgers. The Guardians have the better bullpen, but the Dodgers have a 33 scoreless innings streak. Twelve of those innings have come from the starting pitching, but the bulk of it is this bullpen, which looks as good as any unit in the playoffs. The only unit that can compare is… the Dodgers offense.

Folks, we have to come to grips with this. The Dodgers are the best team left here, and it might not be that close. When everyone in the Dodgers lineup is taking good ABs, the starters are finding their way, and the bullpen is untouchable, AND they are at home, no team in baseball can compete with them.

Flaherty giving the Dodgers seven innings yesterday could not have worked better for a bullpen game. Everyone except Daniel Hudson and Ben Casparius has yet to throw since Friday. Anthony Banda and Ryan Brasier last threw on Wednesday. This bullpen is unconscious right now, and it’s as rested as possible. Both teams also have an off-day tomorrow, so Roberts can go to any arm for as long as he wants.

I love Sean Manaea. He’s made massive changes that have catapulted his stock. The cross-arm delivery is so hard to pick up, and he’s mixing his pitches beautifully. The former San Francisco Giant has plenty of experience against this current Dodgers lineup, but it’s not good.

Through 155 PA, the Dodgers current roster is hitting .286 with a .537 xSLG and a .379 xwOBA. The league average xSLG is .405 and a .315 xwOBA. The quality of the Dodgers’ contact against Manaea in the past is well above average.

The Dodgers are also the number one offense at home against lefties this season. They have posted a 129 wRC+, 29% better than the league-average offense in this spot. The only team that comes close is the Diamondbacks, who scored the most runs in the league this year, and they are second. Also, it got better in the second half, posting a 135 wRC+ in the second half against left-handed pitching.

Who comes in after Manaea? Edwin Diaz for four innings? The circle of trust in the Mets bullpen is clearly diminished to a few guys. Jose Butto, David Peterson, Ryne Stanek, and Edwin Diaz. Peterson and Butto threw 40 pitches yesterday, and both of them got crushed. They can go to Danny Young and Reed Garrett again, who the Dodgers now have seen. Good luck with that.

So it’s Manaea, then Stanek, then Diaz? If the Mets are down in the game, will they use Diaz for multiple innings? They might, but honestly, ask yourself, do you think the Dodgers won’t hit Diaz?

Shohei isn’t cold anymore. Neither is Mookie. Freddie Freeman doesn’t care about his injury. Teoscar Hernandez rarely has back-to-back bad games. Muncy and Hernandez supply big hits at the bottom, and Tommy Edman provides an excellent spark at the bottom of the lineup.

I’ll be shocked if Sean Manaea and the Mets bullpen carve through this lineup. Truthfully, outside of Skubal, Wheeler, or Gerrit Cole, I don’t think any pitcher can stop this offense right now. The more I think about it, the more I realize that the Dodgers may crush all of them, too.

The Dodgers are averaging over five runs per game over their last five and six game during this scoreless streak. They are the number one team against lefties at home, and the bullpen is ready. The playoffs are about momentum, and I’m afraid the layoff between series hurt the Mets while the Dodgers continue to steamroll.

The Dodgers might only have to score 3-4 runs to cover the runline. I don’t see the Mets bats magically coming alive against all these flamethrowers. Michael Kopech is a monster who throws 102. Blake Treinen might be the second-best reliever to Clase in the playoffs. Evan Phillips used to be the closer; he’s still phenomenal. Brasier is always good for a scoreless first inning. Maybe they can get a run of Landon Knack.

I make this line the same as yesterday’s. It should be -160 for the Dodgers and +140 for the Mets. The Dodgers will flatten the Mets again today, and the world will see what a truly dominant force this Dodgers team is. I have a bad feeling we may see a four-game sweep in this series.

The Pick: Dodgers ML (-135) Risk 1.35 Units, Dodgers -1.5 (+150) Risk 0.5 Units