Bryan Woo led us to the promised land yesterday. We took him under 4.5 hits allowed, and he carved through the A’s lineup, only allowing three hits over six innings.

Today, we have two picks in the night slate. One is a total, and the other is a strikeout prop showing enough value to warrant a half-unit wager.

2025 Record: 6-2 (+3.49 Units)

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Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Braves: Grant Holmes (3.56 ERA, 3.20 FIP in 68.1 Innings)

Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow (3.49 ERA, 2.90 FIP in 134 innings)

When the Braves go cold, fade them. This offense has been non-existent to start the season, and now they have a date with a healthy and fresh Tyler Glasnow, followed by arguably the best bullpen in baseball. However, the Braves team total is 3.5, heavily juiced to the under, and the Dodgers are -250 on the ML. There is not a lot of room to work with.

The way to fade the Braves’ offense is to take the under, as I’m a big believer in Grant Holmes. The Braves still have a great bullpen behind him.

Grant Holmes is one of the pitchers I’m high on this year. I first saw him in person in Milwaukee, where he spun five fantastic innings against a hot Brewers offense. He was a first-rounder by the Dodgers in 2014 and is now making the impact the Dodgers thought he could when they drafted him.

Holmes is an intriguing arm due to his ability to rack up swings and misses (92nd percentile in whiff rate) and get hitters to swing outside the zone (97th percentile in chase rate). He was throwing it wherever he wanted to last year, sitting in the 90th percentile in walk rate. He throws a lot of strikes but doesn’t get barrelled often, sitting in the 70th percentile in barrel rate.

I’m projecting him to pitch twice through the order and successfully do it. The Braves just played on Sunday Night Baseball, and when they were down, they threw two of their low-leverage arms. That means they have all their best arms: Raisiel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson, and Daysbel Hernandez. Those are five legitimate bullpen arms, and the Dodgers must adjust every inning. The Braves are a live underdog due to how strong the pitching will be in this game.

However, given how the Dodgers’ pitching compares to Atlanta’s offensive ineptitude, I have no interest in taking the Braves. Like Bryan Woo yesterday, Tyler Glasnow’s only weakness is staying on the field. Especially when he’s fresh, he has the talent to be a top-five pitcher.

March and April are historically his best months. Over his career, he’s pitched to a 2.95 ERA and 2.74 FIP, both the best marks of any month. Last season, it was more of the same, with a 2.72 ERA in March and April, the best of any month.

He’s also destroyed this Braves offense on multiple occasions. In 71 PA against the Braves’ current roster, they are hitting .177 against him with a .263 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of 31%. That’s very close to the level of dominance that Bryan Woo had over the A’s, and look how that went.

Behind Glasnow is a bullpen that had an off-day yesterday, so they are ready to go. The only one we likely won’t see is Luis Garcia, the worst of them all. He’s still a good reliever; that’s just how good the Dodgers’ bullpen is.

The Braves’ offense has a 42 wRC+, the second-worst in baseball. They have the second-lowest Hard-Hit rate and the seventh-highest strikeout rate. This offense isn’t ready to break out; it looks dead, and I want to take advantage. Considering that the Braves’ pitching plan looks excellent, runs will be at a premium. I would take this under to 8 (-115).

Player Prop #1

Nobody knows who Kyle Hart is. Padres fans barely know him, and we are betting on him to perform today.

I like taking risks with players that none of these lineups have seen when I think they have good stuff. There is a real shot he follows a similar path to Erick Fedde, an MLB castaway that reinvented himself in the KBO and is now good enough to return.

In 2024, Kyle Hart was the best pitcher in the KBO, striking out 182 batters in 157 innings while posting a 2.69 ERA. He won the Choi Dong-won Award, which honors the best starting pitcher in the league, the KBO equivalent of the CY Young. In 2023, Erick Fedde took home the award, and in Fedde’s first start of the year last year, he struck out seven over 4.2 innings.

I think Padres GM AJ Preller is one of the best identifiers of talent among executives in MLB. He signed Hart and believed he’s good enough to start in the rotation. From a run prevention standpoint, he didn’t look great in spring training, but he was still striking out a batter per inning.

The Guardians are not the best matchup for strikeouts, but this line is still too low. They got to face the Royals this past weekend, facing pitchers they are familiar with. There is no real game plan because nobody has seen him since 2020. The good part about the matchup is that the Guardians put up a 21.7% strikeout rate on the road against lefties last year, the highest of any of their splits.

3.5 at -110 is too low for a pitcher with a strikeout upside. I think he’ll surprise some people today, and I would take this up to -125. However, keep the unit size small, as we don’t have the data we usually do on a play like this. My model gives this play a 59% chance, making the true line -147.

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