We took Kyle Hart over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120) and 5.5 Strikeouts (+245). He ended with four.

That was a tough loss. Hart was cruising through six innings, only allowing one hit without giving up a walk or a run. He was removed at 74 pitches, which was understandable at the moment but still tough to swallow. The CLV on both picks was insane, as Hart Over 4.5 K’s closed at -220, and 5.5 strikeouts closed at +105, but alas, no dice.

Three straight losers have eaten into our profits for the season, but we can’t forget that we are still in the green. It’s a long season of ups and downs, and I hope today starts us back in the right direction.

2025 Record: 15-9 (+6.02 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Red Sox: Tanner Houck (4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 16.1 Innings)

Rays: Shane Baz (1.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 13 Innings)

I was surprised to open my BetMGM account and see this high total. Tanner Houck hasn’t been great out of the gate but has a stellar history against these Rays’ bats. Shane Baz has been phenomenal, and I believe this is a part of a more significant breakout for him this season. The Rays have a few high-leverage arms entirely rested, and the Red Sox bullpen is also in a decent spot. I make the total 7.5, but we have wind, so incorporating that makes it 8.

This total is at 8.5, approaching 9. It didn’t make much sense at first, but then I realized that all three games in the Rays’ last series at home had at least nine runs scored. George Steinbrenner Field is also susceptible to wind because there is little shielding at a minor league ballpark.

I trust the BallparkPals weather model because I don’t have a weather model of my own. They project plenty of wind today, but not enough to drive a total up this high. They are projecting about 8-10 MPH winds, so I’m willing to take the leap on this total, knowing the wind isn’t egregious.

Let’s start with Tanner Houck, as he’s the “worrisome” pitcher here when looking at an under. He’s gotten off to a bad start with his 5.34 xERA and 4.92 SIERA. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his groundball rate isn’t close to what it was last season. His stuff hasn’t taken much of a dive, as his velocity is the same as last season. Houck is coming off a great start against the Blue Jays, but his first two starts stunk. I’m willing to buy at a low price due to the matchup.

The Rays’ offense has gotten off to a great start, but they haven’t had much success against Tanner Houck. Over three starts against Tampa Bay last season, he tossed 16.2 innings while only allowing two earned runs. Consistently dominant against his division rival.

The Rays have a few new hitters in their lineup, but they are nothing Houck can’t handle. Over 65 PA against the Rays’ current roster, they are hitting .203 with a .300 xwOBA with a 29.2% strikeout rate. All of those numbers are elite. The top of the lineup, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Junior Caminero, are a combined 5-27 (.185 AVG) with one extra-base hit and ten strikeouts. I expect Houck to continue his dominance of the Rays here, as I’m also showing value on Rays Team Total Under 4.5.

After Houck exits, the Red Sox have a solid pitching plan behind him. Brennan Bernadino, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert, and Justin Wilson are all fine arms able to hold it down in the end. I don’t see the Rays putting up more than four runs in this one.

The Red Sox will also have to find their way to four runs. They get a date with Shane Baz, who is developing into a potential front-line pitcher. He threw two times against the Red Sox last season, limiting the offense to four runs over 13 innings while striking out 13 batters. The Red Sox only hit .116 against him. However, this Shane Baz is a better version than last season.

Baz’s four-seam fastball velocity is up from 95.6 MPH last year to 96.7 MPH this season. His slider and curveball induce plenty of whiffs, and his changeup remains a great fourth offering. He’s off to a roaring start, dominating both the Angels and Pirates. Pittsburgh’s offense is terrible, but the Angels’ 121 wRC+ against righties is much better than the Red Sox at 99.

Behind Baz is an elite bullpen plan. We get rested Pete Fairbanks and Edwin Uceta, two of their best arms. We also get Hunter Bigge and Manuel Rodriguez, who didn’t pitch yesterday. The Rays’ bullpen is fantastic, and we have four of their best in line to throw today.

Yes, there is wind, but both starters keep the ball on the ground at an above-average rate, and the bullpen situations are in good spots. Also, regarding Isolated Power (ISO) this season, both teams rank below average, so these aren’t two squads consistently hitting for power. I’m holding firm with my projection of 7.9 runs in this game, so I would take this under to 8 (+100).

Player Prop #1

The Colorado Rockies are terrible offensively—so bad that it’s almost funny. They were shut out this weekend by the Padres, the first time they’ve been blanked in three straight games in the franchise’s history. I think it’s the worst offense in the league, and they have one of the highest strikeout rates to prove it. However, Dustin May’s strikeout line is still too high.

Dustin May is a routine feature on Pitching Ninja’s social media profiles due to his unbelievable breaking ball and mind-bending sinker. You’d think that with incredible stuff, May would be a heavy strikeout pitcher. He’s not, and he never has been.

Dustin May is in the 22nd percentile of strikeout rate at just 16.3% this season. He’s not getting swings and misses out of the gate (23rd percentile in whiff rate), and he’s not getting hitters to chase outside the zone (6th percentile). This is not something small we expect to increase; May has never been a pitcher that racks up strikeouts.

We still don’t have a massive sample because May didn’t pitch last year and only made nine starts in 2023. In those nine starts in 2023, he was under 5.5 strikeouts in seven of them, and the two times he went over, he landed on six strikeouts. In 2022, he made six starts, only going over 5.5 strikeouts in one. So, over his last 17 MLB starts, including 2025, he’s been under this line in 13 (76%).

He went over this line in his first start against Atlanta, who has the second-highest strikeout rate against righties, only trailing the Rockies. In his last start, he only struck out one Washington National and saw a slight drop-off in stuff. The adrenaline of his first start in over a year led him to having some of the best stuff he’s ever had, touching 97.8 MPH with his heater. In his second start, his high was 96.2, and we saw the results.

May is also a pitcher the Dodgers plan on limiting. It seems clear that 85 to 90 pitches will be his maximum at every start. The Dodgers need him to stay healthy, and they have four legitimate bullpen arms that have barely thrown since Thursday. Anthony Banda, Kirby Yates, Jack Dreyer, and Tanner Scott are all fully rested and need an appearance. I haven’t been able to model out pitching outs lines yet, but at first glance, I think he stays under 17.5 pitching outs.

Ryan McMahon and Jacob Stallings are the only two batters that have seen May, and neither has struck out. It’s a small sample that doesn’t mean much, but we’d rather see that than a bad history.

Dustin May is striking out 5.73 batters per nine innings this season, lower than the 6.38 mark he put up last year. To go over this line, he’s likely going to have to strike out over a batter per inning, and knowing the adrenaline is likely not going to be there against the worst offense in baseball, I project him to finish with 5.2 strikeouts. Based on my model, this would constitute a half-unit play.

I increased the risk to 0.75 units because Rithmm’s model loves this play. It projects 4.3 strikeouts, giving us a 72.3% chance of staying under 5.5 strikeouts. Rithmm’s AI back-tested model is off to a good start, and I can’t ignore an edge like that. Based on my personal model, I would take this to -115, but based on their model, you’re good to -140.

If you’re interested in building a model of your own or using Rithmm’s back-tested model, try it out by using code JUSTBASEBALL25 for a seven-day free trial and 25% off your first month, or use code JUSTBASEBALL50 for 50% off a year subscription.