Welcome to October, the best month of the sports calendar. I have a pick in three of the four playoff games today. The regular season did not go as planned; we finished down -7.67 units. Luckily, our futures have catapulted us into the green. They aren’t all graded yet, but what I can say is my BetMGM account is full.

We also have four World Series futures to sweat. We have the Braves at +3500 to win the World Series, the Astros at +850, and my favorite, the Padres at +5000. We also have the Padres to win the NL Pennant at +2500. I think they are the best team in the playoffs, and I’m betting them today among two others. Let’s get into it.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:00 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Cole Ragans (3.59 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (3.09 ERA)

We are focusing on the Kansas City Royals bats. The Orioles’ bats should come to play today, but Royal’s lines are showing much more value, especially offensively, as Corbin Burnes is getting a lot of respect for this one. Deservedly so. He’s a fantastic pitcher, but I don’t trust the bullpen behind him. The Royals get Vinnie Pasquantino back and have a solid history against Burnes.

The Royals ended the year on a sour note. They went 12-18 in their last 30 games and had a 75 wRC+ against righties, the 27th-worst in the league. The market has seemingly given up on them after they limped to the finish, and now the team total is too low.

Corbin Burnes has made two playoff starts in his career. The first start was fantastic, with six shutout innings. On the second start, he got beat up, allowing four earned runs in four innings. While the Orioles brought him in for games like this, he doesn’t have an extensive track record of dominating in the playoffs.

While the Royals have struggled lately, they’ve performed every time when they’ve faced Burnes. They’ve faced him twice this year, once at home and once on the road. At home, the Royals scattered nine hits and scored two runs over 5.2 innings. They got him for three earned runs in 5.2 innings in Kansas City. Each time, the Royals scored at least three runs in those games.

While the Royals are the new and exciting team to make it this year, this isn’t a super young and inexperienced group. Tommy Pham was a stud come playoff time last year, and I don’t think Bobby Witt Jr is scared of anything. Salvador Perez has plenty of experience, as does a player like Yuli Gurriel. Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, and Maikel Garcia are the young ones, but only Garcia is younger than 25 years old. I’m not worried about the moment being too big for these guys.

I project Burnes for two runs through six innings, then he’ll hand it off to the bullpen. Since September began, the Orioles have a 5.31 ERA in the bullpen. Outside of Yennier Cano, who’s not having his best season, I don’t trust many of these arms. Some of them have had good years, but to trust them to throw up zeros after Burnes exists is not something I can get behind.

This is my least confident play, but I do think we can score three runs for Kansas City. Being guaranteed nine at-bats is also nice, as they are the road team, so we’ll take all the chances possible. Take this to -145.

The Pick: Royals Team Total Over 2.5 (-140) Risk 0.7 Units

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 5:30 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Luis Severino (3.91 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (3.68 ERA)

As I approached this game, I couldn’t help but feel for Luis Severino. It’s not that he’s a subpar pitcher, but the circumstances he’s in are undeniably tough. A doubleheader followed by a road game against a formidable offense is no easy task.

Severino was slated to start game two, and with the quick turnaround after game one, I have to imagine he was staying loose and fully ready to get the ball. The adrenaline started to rise, and with the potential season on the line, you know he was jacked up and ready to run through a wall. He plays with so much passion, and I love that about him. He then sat back down and had to rewire his brain to face Milwaukee.

Severino already had major troubles on the road this season. He dominated at home to a 2.96 ERA, but his rough starts were primarily on the road, posting a 5.00 ERA. The Brewers faced him on Opening Day, roughing him up at Citi Field for 11 hits six runs, and three were earned. He did strike out six of them, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get some strikeouts today, but there is one area we have to fade him.

In five of Severino’s last six road games, he’s averaging 14.8 outs per game. This is the first time he’s thrown over 110 innings in a season since 2018, and now he’s at 182 innings on the year.

The Brewers present a formidable challenge for Severino. Their strong performance against fastballs and sinkers, which make up 60% of his arsenal, is a significant factor. They lead in pitches seen per plate appearance and have the fifth-highest walk rate against righties in baseball. Their patience will require Severino not just to perform well, but to do so efficiently given the quick leash in the playoffs.

In a short series like this, managers go to their bullpens quickly. You may think the Mets don’t have a bullpen left after the double-header, but they managed it well. They won’t have Edwin Diaz, Phil Maton, or Huascar Brazoban, but they will have everyone else, including Jose Butto who can go multiple innings. The Mets have five relievers who have thrown 25 pitches or less over the last three days. They are in a good spot. 

There are numerous compelling reasons to bet on the under-pitching outs. We have one of the most patient offenses in baseball facing a pitcher who struggles on the road. In a short playoff series, the manager will swiftly turn to the bullpen if the starter falters. Severino was also put in a tough spot with the double-header. I’ve taken the under 16.5 pitching outs, but if you’re looking for a cheaper option, I believe he won’t go beyond five innings, so I’d recommend taking this down to 15.5 pitching outs.

The Pick: Luis Severino Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130) Risk 1 Unit

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres @ 8:30 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: TBD (– ERA) vs. Michael King (2.95 ERA)

The Braves screwed themselves with how the double-header turned out. Talk about sucking the air out of the room; they had multiple leads in game one and blew it. They used their two best relievers, Joe Jimenez and Raisel Iglesias, in both games, and they got crushed. It’s still an outstanding bullpen, but they had to work a double shift yesterday. They will likely have to weather the load here, as the Braves are going with Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder, or a bullpen game in this one.

The Braves did clinch, but it can’t feel good after what happened. After playing both double-header games, they now have to travel across the country to face a Padres team that has been incredible at home and had a day off to prepare for this one.

Michael King has been fantastic and can easily be in the conversation as a top-ten pitcher this season. The Braves haven’t seen him yet, which gives King a leg up. His sinker has an absurd amount of movement, and with the way his changeup, four-seam, and sweeper work off it, it’ll take a bit to adjust to that movement—no wonder he’s posted a 2.33 ERA the first time through the order. The second time through, his ERA is 3.17.

He has a 15.5 pitching outs line, which I assume the Padres want out of him today. Unless he’s throwing an absolute gem, he’ll likely hand it over to the bullpen. The Padres bullpen is not only rested, but it’s one of the best bullpens in the game. They can mix and match in so many different ways. It would be a nightmare to go up against them after playing an emotional double-header and then flying across the country without an off-day in between.

The offensive difference against righties is vastly different. The Padres have the third-best offense in baseball against righties at home, with a 120 wRC+. The Braves rank 16th in wRC+, at 94, against righties on the road this year. That’s a 26% difference, and I have to downgrade the Braves due to travel and fatigue. The Padres will make this defense and pitching staff work; they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball.

The Braves also take a step down on the road. They are 11 games over .500 at home, but are just five games over .500 on the road.

The Padres hold every single advantage on the field today. They have the better offense and starting pitcher, and since the Braves bullpen was used, I give the Padres the bullpen edge. The Padres are also the better defensive team, leading all playoff teams in DRS. San Diego is also the better base-running team in terms of BsR. 

The only way you’ll find me on a run line is in a game like this. The Braves have no momentum, are fatigued after travel, and have no advantages at any point in this game. You can take the ML if you want, but if they only win by one run, I capped the game wrong. This should be a blowout, as the Braves might not even score. My final score prediction is 5-2; the Padres win easily.

The Pick: Padres -1.5 (+145) Risk 1 Unit