Ryan Feltner SOARED over 15.5 pitching outs, going seven strong innings, cashing our +110 ticket.

Unfortunately, Chris Sale was subbed out for Bryce Elder. I posted on Twitter about cashing out, and thankfully we did, as the game went over in the 11th inning.

Today, we are fading a familiar foe.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 78-84 (-9.80 U)

Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert (2.91 ERA) vs. Adam Mazur (7.52 ERA)

The Mariners have the way better pitcher in this matchup. Haven’t we seen this story before?

We aren’t blindly fading the Mariners; we take the other side in specific matchups. I had confidence in Simeon Woods-Richardson and Yariel Rodriguez because of their pitch mix. It’s these right-handed pitchers with four seamers, sliders, and curveballs. SWR didn’t fit that mold precisely because the third pitch is a changeup, but Rodriguez did. Rodriguez threw six shutout innings against this offense while allowing one hit.

Adam Mazur’s three main pitches are a four-seamer, slider, and curveball. This matchup has given these Mariners bats nightmares. That said, Mazur has been getting blown up, but so has Rodriguez until then.

Mazur is a top pitching prospect for the Padres, but he still needs to find his footing. His ERA, at 7.52, is much higher than his 4.80 xERA, which has much to do with his far below-average command. It’s strange because Mazur never walked more than two per nine innings in the minor leagues, but for whatever reason, he hasn’t been able to throw strikes so far.

If he throws strikes today, he should be adequate. Seattle is tied for 28th in xwOBA against that mix, only ahead of the White Sox and Rockies. The Mariners have a .217 batting average this season, the worst in baseball. They have been hitting .212 over the last 30 days, the worst against right-handers in baseball in that span.

Over the last two weeks, the Mariners have a 75 wRC+ against righties, and the only teams worse are the Marlins and Rockies. The Padres have a 112 wRC+ against righties, the ninth-best in that span.

The best home team against righties in the National League this year is the San Diego Padres. They have a 126 wRC+, tied with the Houston Astros, 26% above the league average, and 31 points higher than the Mariner’s wRC+ against righties on the road.

They have a tough matchup against Logan Gilbert on the surface. He’s been the Mariners’ most effective pitcher this season, but the Padres matchup well against him based on his pitch mix.

Logan Gilbert throws a lot of pitches: four-seamer (30.9%), slider (30.6%), cutter (15.9%), splitter (13.9%), and a curveball (7.9%). He’s also thrown 13 sinkers, tallying a 0.8% usage rate. You factor in all of those pitches from right-handers, and the Padres rank second in xwOBA this year. The quality of contact against that mix is the second highest in baseball.

If we take out his curveball and sinker (two least-used pitches), the Padres’ xwOBA goes from .348 to .355, still ranking second in the league. The teams that match up well against this mix have all gotten to Gilbert this year.

The Yankees are number one, putting up eight hits and three runs against him. The Astros are number three; they were shut out, but then they put up four runs in the next start. The Twins are number four, and they put up ten earned runs in ten innings against him. The Orioles are number five, and they just put up four runs against him in 5.1 innings. Even a team like the Brewers, who rank seventh, put up four runs in 5.2 innings.

Gilbert has solid past numbers against this Padres team, but that’s being baked into the line. San Diego seems to rise to the occasion against good teams, going 20-17 against teams over .500. The Mariners consistently fall short against teams over .500, going 23-26, and they are also 19-25 on the road.

The bullpens are a wash. Gregory Santos is back for Seattle, which is huge for the long term, but he is fresh off the 60-day IL; I wouldn’t trust him yet. Both squads had an off day, so they had their key arms ready. Both teams have quality arms that can lock it down, but with the better offense, I will ride it out through the game.

The starting pitching matchup on the surface is massive. However, the Padres matchup exceptionally well against Gilbert, and the Mariners have struggled against pitchers with a similar mix to Mazur. Mazur’s big issue has been the walks, but he may have more confidence in the zone today, considering this is his easiest matchup.

I would take the Padres to +105. We get the better offense and overall team at home, and the matchup against Gilbert should be easier than it is for some other teams.

The Pick: Padres ML (+120) Risk 1 Unit