MLB Best Bets: New York Yankees, Reds, Cardinals
Written By: Tomas Romo
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
We had ourselves a huge day yesterday. We went 3-2 on the plays posted to the site but missing my PrizePick entry dropped us to 3-3 overall on the day. The best part is we won +2.17 units cashing both of our two-unit plays with the Mets and Cardinals. We are going to stay away from PrizePicks with today’s limited slate but I still have four plays to give out. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 47-19 (+35.30 U)
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 1:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Adam Oller vs. Cole Irvin
We are not going back to the well today with Baltimore. We were going to continue to fade the A’s until they proved to me that they could beat the Orioles and yesterday they came through. I’m flipping the script completely. We are going to be looking at the total in this game.
The line opened at 9.5 and got steamed up to 10 over night. When I placed this play I saw extreme value on the under. The line was juiced up at 10 with -120 odds and the over is a huge public bet today.
Both of these teams are considered over teams with Oakland having a 9-3 record to the over and Baltimore is 8-4 to the over. 75% of the bets for this game is on the over, yet it’s receiving only 26% of the money. The public is all over this game the same way they were yesterday with the Padres and that’s why we picked the Mets. There is not a strong wind factor in this game and with the under receiving 74% of the money I love this spot.
The Play: Athletics/Orioles u10 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Bailey Falter vs. Nick Lodolo
It’s Nick Lodolo day! If you have been following along with the plays, you know we have backed Lodolo and the Reds when he’s on the mound. Lodolo is facing off against Bailey Falter and the two squared off last weekend with Lodolo getting the better of Falter going seven innings while striking out 12. The Phillies ended up winning the game 3-2, but we are going to be looking at the first half in this one.
The Reds are -125 on both the first half and full game moneyline and we are starting to see the books respect Lodolo when he is on the mound. The Phillies are 1-5 on the road and had no answer for Lodolo his last time out. While Falter pitched well in his last start against the Reds, I don’t see that happening again on the road. Lodolo has a better arsenal than Falter and being a strikeout guy favors the Reds in this one considering the high strikeout rates of the Phillies hitters.
The Play: Reds 1H ML (-125) 1.25 U to win 1 U
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees @ 7:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Joe Ryan vs. Jhony Brito
We are going to be backing the Bronx Bombers in this one and we are going to pay the juice. Let me tell you why I’m comfortable laying the Yankees on the moneyline at -150. Across the market New York opened as a -135 home favorite and now they are steamed up all the way to -150. I like to bet teams that are high favorites in these non-divisional games because of the lack of familiarity between the two.
New York is the better team and these non-divisional games benefit them, and the line movement towards the Yankees makes me feel even better about this one. New York has the advantage at the plate, they are hitting .249 vs Minnesota’s .236 average and the Yankees are 34-12 since 2015 against the Twins. That’s a 74% win rate and they are 8-3 as a favorite this season while the Twins have yet to win a game as an underdog. With those odds it’s tough not to pull the trigger on New York.
The Play: Yankees ML (-150) 1.5 U to win 1 U
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Vince Velasquez vs. Jordan Montgomery
Yesterday the Cardinals came through for us cashing on the first half against the Rockies. St. Louis returns home after a long trip on the road and Jordan Montgomery takes the mound with a 2-0 record and a 2.25 ERA. Montgomery did face off against the Pirates once last season throwing six innings while allowing only two runs. Journeyman Vince Velasquez is on the bump for Pittsburgh and he has struggled in his first two starts. He has yet to make it through five innings this season and has only tallied four strikeouts.
To put it bluntly, Velasquez is really bad. This St. Louis lineup has a ton of familiarity with this team and I see the Cardinals offense putting up at least three runs on Velasquez. Pittsburgh entire pitching staff has struggled with a 4.92 team ERA and I expect Velasquez to get pulled fairly quickly and if it becomes and bullpen game for the Pirates they are in trouble.
The Play: Cardinals -1.5 (-125) 1.25 U to win 1 U