MLB Best Bets May 17th, 2023

For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season, I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day from 4:00 to 6:30 ET.

As I said yesterday, we are hot. We went 2-0 yesterday, cashing both our plays and it wasn’t even a sweat. We are currently on an 18-8 run on MLB plays, and I got two picks in today’s slate. Let’s rock.

Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.

2023 Overall Record: 103-66-2 (+32.30 U)

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: MacKenzie Gore vs. Edward Cabrera

I said this on Monday, but I really do pride myself on knowing when to bet the Washington Nationals, and today is one of those days.

MacKenzie Gore has pitched pretty well for Washington this season: he has a 3-2 record with a 3.29 ERA. He has pitched better on the road, with a 2.91 ERA and an xBA of .232. I don’t see these Marlins hitters faring well against him. I have backed Gore in most of his starts as of late, but the main reason I’m backing the Nats in this one is because of Edward Cabrera.

Cabrera walks batters at an astounding rate. He allows the free pass 18.3% of the time, which ranks in the bottom 2% of the league according to Baseball Savant. Washington is a scrappy team, they aren’t going to out-slug teams and hit the ball out of the park. However, if you let them hang around and give them opportunities, they will find a way to win.

I don’t trust Cabrera in this matchup with a 5.35 ERA and his xERA of 4.49. The walks are going to be his downfall, and if he’s struggling with command, then I don’t see him going deep into this game. It’s never a smart thing to bet the Nationals moneyline because of how bad their bullpen is. They were up by two yesterday with two outs and still found a way to lose. That’s why we are playing the first five.

The Play: Washington Nationals F5 ML (+105) 1 U to win 1.05 U

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Marco Gonzales vs. Brayan Bello

The line opened with the Red Sox being a short -120 home favorite, and the line is trending in their direction. Most shops have Boston as a -125 favorite, and I’m going to back the books in this rubber match.

Boston comes into this game batting .268, with a .254 BA against lefties this season. Marco Gonzales has been nothing special for Seattle, he has an xERA of 4.62 and an opponents’ xBA of .275. The Red Sox are a great hitting team; they exploded for nine runs yesterday after scoring only one run in the opener. Gonzales is not a strikeout pitcher, and I don’t believe he has the stuff to shut down Boston in this one.

Brayan Bello has really found his groove. He’s given up three runs or fewer over each of his last four starts, two of which saw him go up against the Braves and Blue Jays. As of late, he has really flashed his potential as a young starter, and the Mariners are batting only .229 as a team. I expect Bello to give the Sox every chance to win this ball game, and I expect Boston’s offense to strike fast. Let’s just hope the Red Sox bullpen doesn’t let us down tonight.

Let’s go Boston.

The Play: Boston Red Sox ML (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U