DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?? JOSH H SMITH FOR THE WIN!

What a game. We needed the Rangers to score four runs to put us in the green, and it looked grim early. Hunter Brown maneuvered through this lineup with ease, which wasn’t what I had expected. Our only hope was the bullpen, which I noted was due for regression. Corey Seager ties the game up with a home run, and then, in the bottom of the tenth, down by a run, Josh H Smith sends us to victory with a pimp-job home run.

What a rush. After losing our last pick on a fluke, it’s nice to win one on a fluke. Variance is a crazy thing in baseball; let’s hope it’s on our side today with these three picks. It has more volume than normal, but when the board speaks, I listen.

2024 Record: 94-98 (-7.18 U)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez (— ERA) vs. Ben Lively (3.42 ERA)

We love both of these teams. We have a future for the Diamondbacks to surpass 83.5 wins this season. We also have plenty of futures on the Guardians, taking them to win the division (+400) and over 78 wins. Both teams look primed to hit these futures, but I think one has the edge today. It’s a spot we have to take for a few reasons.

As the tweet above says, the Guardians are 12-0 since July 17, 2023, when avoiding four straight losses. This team has an innate ability not to let cold stretches turn into colder ones. It’s not as if this Guardians team is playing poorly during this slide; they beat the Orioles in the first two games of a four-game set, then lost in ten innings to Arizona yesterday.

This is also a fade on Eduardo Rodriguez. He suffered a lat strain on March 22 and is making his first start of the season. Typically, lat strains take a month or so to recover, but this one lasted nearly five months. I looked at how he’s done in his rehab starts, but the man hasn’t even thrown one. He’s thrown in sim games, and his pitch count will be around 65 pitches today.

Eduardo Rodriguez dominated the Guardians last year over four starts, but that was last year’s team. Those lineups had Ramon Laureano, Oscar Gonzalez, Jose Tena, and Zach Collins sprinkled in. Now we replace them with lefty mashers like Lane Thomas and David Fry, who are a combined 2-5 against him. Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, and Tyler Freeman are a combined 13-40 against Eduardo Rodriguez. The Guardians shouldn’t have a problem here offensively.

Ben Lively has a tough matchup today, no doubt about it. The Diamondbacks have the second-highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the break ended. However, Lively has had tough matchups and keeps his team in games.

He throws the kitchen sink at you, featuring six different pitches. His 3.64 xERA and 4.23 SIERA are perfectly fine; he’s a pretty good starter. I wouldn’t say I’m backing him today but the Guardians staff as a whole.

They used many arms last night but still have plenty of good ones. This is the best bullpen in baseball, and we have Clase, Sandlin, Barlow, and Gaddis all on fine rest schedules. That’s plenty of elite arms to hold it down.

The Diamondbacks’ bullpen is solid but not as good as Cleveland’s. With Rodriguez’s pitch count today, they’ll likely have to dip into that. In the last two days, they’ve used two of their best, Ryan Thompson and Justin Martinez. If they throw again, they are very vulnerable. Mantiply, Ginkel, Floro, and Puk will likely be available—solid arms, but not at the level of the Guardians.

Fading a pitcher making his first start back from an injury and tailing the 12-0 trend for Cleveland. I grabbed this when it opened, but would bet to -125.

The Pick: Guardians ML (-105) Risk 1.05 U

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Grayson Rodriguez (3.86 ERA) vs. Chris Bassitt (4.02 ERA)

I miss going to war with Chris Bassitt. It feels like the day to draw our swords and battle with the 35-year-old right-hander.

The Orioles own him. They beat him in their last matchup, scoring five runs in four innings against him. I’ve watched a lot of Chris Bassitt starts in my life. I’m not sure why, but I have. I usually lean toward a pitcher adjusting a lousy start, but Bassitt is a different story.

He doesn’t blow you away with anything; he’s a kitchen sink pitcher who tries to work the corners. A typical Bassitt start is carving through the first time in the order. The team waits for their pitch, but it’s already deep into the game. That’s how he can escape with his six-inning, two-run outings. However, the Orioles got to him early last time; they knew his plan.

Through 76 PA against the Orioles’ current roster, they are hitting .400 against him. They have also posted a .444 xSLG and a .329 xwOBA against Bassitt. Adding Eloy Jimenez to this lineup today would be a nice boost, as he’s 5-11 against Bassitt in his career. They better play him. The rest of the lineup crushes him, so if he doesn’t, that’s okay, but it’s foolish not to.

Grayson could have been better against the Blue Jays, but he’s the superior pitcher and has better stats against the Jays’ current roster. Through 67 PA, they are hitting .311 with a .282 xwOBA and a .363 xSLG. Solid surface-level stats, but the quality of contact is minimal.

The Blue Jays also gutted their bullpen, trading Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards, and Nate Pearson. To elongate the bullpen, the Orioles added Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto. Both teams had an off-day, so if the best arms are rested, I’m taking Baltimore every day of the week.

Since the All-Star break, the Orioles have a 141 wRC+ (4th) versus the Blue Jays at a 110 wRC+ (13th) against right-handed pitching.

The Orioles have the advantage in every spot and are excellent in this specific spot. When the Orioles are road favorites with a day of rest and their opponent is coming off a loss, they are 50-24 (67.57%) with an absurd 36% ROI.

It’s a bit expensive and a divisional game, so there is always room for some flukey nonsense. I’m going to play it for a unit and not lay juice, but I have to do it.

The Pick: Orioles ML (-140) Risk 1 Unit

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Luis Severino (3.93 ERA) vs. Kyle Freeland (5.64 ERA)

I’m lifting two bans here. I banned the Rockies, and I banned betting against Grimmace. Those bans will become rock-solid if this play doesn’t hit, but it has to.

The Rockies could be better, but they work their voodoo magic in spots like this. It starts with a classic spot, a road team traveling in without an off-day to play the Rockies at home. Over the last 123 games in this spot, the Rockies are 75-48 (61%) for a fantastic 27% ROI. That’s on the +1.5, not the ML, where they are still profitable but not as much.

I have more faith in the Rockies offense showing up, considering this is Luis Severino’s first career start in Coors Field. Generally, it is a good idea to fade a pitcher making his first start at altitude. The altitude affects velocity and horizontal and vertical movement. He’s never pitched a place that limits stuff, and I can’t imagine it goes all that well.

The Rockies’ offense has been excellent lately, putting up a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the All-Star break. It’s rare to see the Rockies with a split above 100, considering wRC+ docks them a lot for the run environment. If we look at OPS during that span, they rank 8th. In 188 PA at home against righties since the break, they have a .925 OPS; that’s elite.

The Mets get Kyle Freeland today. He’s having a bizarre year. He has a 1.88 ERA at home this year and a 8.23 ERA on the road. He was slightly better at home last year, and he gets the Mets, which are struggling against lefties right now. Since the break, they have an 88 wRC+, ranking 20th in the league.

Freeland has only made four home starts, but he has yet to exceed 3.5 earned runs in six straight games at home dating back to last year (1.5 earned runs/game average). He’s also been excellent since he returned from the IL, throwing 43 innings to a 2.93 ERA. I think he can catch this Mets team sleeping.

Beyond traveling to Coors, the schedule makers did not do this Mets team any favors. This is their third straight game in three different cities. They played the Angels on West Coast time, flew to St Louis for a makeup game, and then went back to Colorado without an off day. It’s just a crappy spot for them.

The Mets hold the bullpen edge, especially with Jose Butto. Truthfully, I’ve come to love Jose Butto; he always dominates. However, he is at Coors so that anything can happen. The Rockies bullpen is also completely rested after an off-day, for what that’s worth.

I thought about going with the first five, but I’m following this system on the run line. The Rockies are 5-1 in their last six games at home on the run line. It’s a great price, and I think the Rockies have a great shot at winning, but they can lose by one, and we will still win.

The Pick: Rockies +1.5 (-110) Risk 1.1 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500