Sweep! We needed it. After the reverse sweep on Friday, we had two easy winners. We took the Braves and Mets under, which fell four runs shy of the total. We took the over in Houston, and that game saw four more runs than the posted total. That’s a good day.

Let’s end the week with a winner.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 90-94 (-7.88 U)

Oakland A’s vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 4:07 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Osvaldo Bido (3.09 ERA) vs. Jose Soriano (3.51 ERA)

This bet is centered around two main reasons. First, I want to join the Jose Soriano fan club. Second, I don’t think the A’s sweep the Angels in a four-game series on the road. We have A’s futures, and we love this A’s team, but it takes a lot of work to sweep a division rival on the road over four games.

I wish Jose Soriano played for a competent team because he’d be a pitcher, and we’d be backing him more often. He has nasty stuff, and his ground-ball rate is 60%. He’s been fantastic since a lousy April. In his first month of the season, he put up a 5.49 ERA as he was adjusting to his new role in the rotation.

He started to figure it out in May, posting a 3.28 ERA over 35.2 innings. He kept it going in June over two starts, posting a 1.93 ERA. It’s been more similar this month, posting a 3.57 ERA. This man just outdueled Logan Gilbert in Seattle. He can pitch, and I think he bounces back after his last start against Oakland.

The line on his start needs to look better. He pitched four innings while allowing four earned runs. However, he only made two mistakes, as the A’s hit two home runs in the game, two of their three hits. Soriano has been great at keeping the ball in the yard, as those were two of the eight home runs he’s allowed all year.

The A’s would have been shut out yesterday if it weren’t for a three-run home run by Shea Langeliers in the first inning. They got four of their five runs off two home runs in game two of this series. It was the same story in game one: they got five of their six runs from home runs.

I’ll tip my cap if they continue a power surge against a pitcher with a 60% groundball rate. It’s hard to maintain an offense like that, especially facing a heavy ground-ball pitcher. The sportsbooks look like they agree, posting his ER line at 1.5 with a juiced line on his 17.5 pitching outs. We should expect six innings of two-run ball from Soriano.

Osvaldo Bido is a tough pitcher to read. He’s coming off a five-inning, one-run performance against the Astros. He’s throwing a cutter at 15% now, upping that usage from last year. That’s the only real difference I see in his mix. He’s not throwing any harder, and his command needs to improve. He’s also rocking a 25% ground-ball rate, which can bite him at any moment if one of these Angels squares him up.

I would be surprised if he turned in anything better than five innings with two runs allowed. It’s hard to project him because he’s had bad blow-ups in the past or is only effective for a few innings. He’s not one of the A’s regulars; he got called up to make spot starts for injured pitchers. I can’t say I have much confidence in him.

Then we get into a battle of the bullpens. The Angels traded their closer away in Carlos Estevez, and the A’s closer, Mason Miller, is hurt. This will be a battle of bullpens without their best, and the Angels will come out on top. The A’s have some decent arms rested, but all are left-handed. That puts the Angels in a much better split, or they will face righties with less-than-ideal rest.

The Angels bullpen has some solid arms ready to go. Ben Joyce and his 103 MPH fastball are ready (2.33 ERA). We have Luis Garcia (3.80 ERA) and Hans Crouse (2.87 ERA). If the Angels build a lead or it’s tied, I’ll ride with the home team with key arms rested.

The A’s came into this series with a 15-36 road record, one of three teams without 20 wins. After three straight road wins, they are still at 18 wins. If the A’s were at home, we could have been more cautious, but not here. The A’s were in a position to sweep the Angels at home in their last series, and the Angels won 8-5.

The Angels have the pitching advantage throughout the game. The A’s offense has been impressive, but it’s relied heavily on the long ball. If they continue that against a pitcher with a 60% groundball rate and three solid relievers, I’ll tip my cap. I make this line -135 just on the matchup, and that’s respecting Bido. It’s fair to make them more expensive than that based on avoiding a four-game sweep at home. The Angels are worth a unit to -145.

The Pick: Angels ML (-135) Risk 1 Unit