Five in a row! Let’s go!

It was always fading the Blue Jays bullpen. It’s a unit with no depth behind Chad Green and Trevor Richards, so if they are losing late, that will likely be the end of the game. We got an easy win on the Astros ML, as they won by seven runs.

Happy Fourth of July! If you’ve been reading my articles, you’re probably shocked to find the play I’m on today. Yes, it’s a two-team parlay. Let’s have some fun on America’s Birthday.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 75-81 (-10.32 U)

Two Team Parlay (+142) Risk 0.5 Units

Tigers vs. Twins Pitching Matchup: Kenta Maeda (5.76 ERA) vs. Bailey Ober (4.30 ERA)

Reds vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup: Frankie Montas (4.23 ERA) vs. Marcus Stroman (3.29 ERA)

These are two favorites that should be priced over -200. I wanted to bet them both individually, but a 1-1 day would be a loss in profit, given their weight in price. I don’t love anything else on the board, so let’s lower the risk, pair them together, and sweat out a fun parlay with a better chance of hitting than the odds indicate, in my opinion.

With big favorites, I’ll save everyone the time of trying to convince you that it’s a good play. They are -170 favorites or more, after all. I do have multiple systems backing both the Twins and Yankees today.

Systems on Yankees:

• “MLB AL EAST OFF A LOSS”: 259-108 (70.57%) (13.2% ROI)—This system says to play the AL East team off a loss against a non-divisional opponent. They have to be at home coming off a loss, and they have to be favorites over -120 with the total between 7.5 and 11.

• “Home Team Avoid Sweep vs Bad Team Non Divisional Opp“: 52-18 (74.29%) (34.91% ROI) – This system says to play the home team trying to avoid the sweep. It hits this system when the home team’s opponent scores less runs per game then the league average, and their winning percentage is under 50%.

• “Teams Due At Home”: 132-50 (72.53%) (20.4% ROI) – This system again says to play on the home team avoiding a sweep, when the away team’s streak is no more than two wins. Basically, the Reds not coming into this series on a streak, take the home team under a -250 ML.

• “Previous Home Favorite Following Loss, Favored Next Game“: 141-68 (67.46%) (12.35% ROI)—This system says to play the home favorite if they lost their previous game and are the favorite again, and the ML is -270.

Systems on Twins:

• “MLB better team is going to win”: 289-80 (78.32%) (11.25% ROI) – This system says to play on the favorite at -180 or higher, if that team lost it’s previous game, but scores more runs than average and allows less runs than a major league average team. Their opponent has to have a winning percentage under .500 for this system to be in play.

• “Day Game Revenge As Favorite”: 255-66 (79.44%) (12.72% ROI) – This system is very similar to the last one, but when the game is played before 7pm EST and the total is lower than 9.5, and the favorite is -180 or higher.

• “Cash Flow 2024 MLB Home Favorites”: 51-11 (82.26%) (25.66% ROI) – This system says to play the home favorite off a loss against a divisional opponent with a win percentage under 50%, but only if the favorite made the playoffs last season, and they were favorites in the previous game.

• “Previous Home Favorite Following Loss, Favored Next Game“: 141-68 (67.46%) (12.35% ROI)—This system says to play the home favorite if they lost their previous game and are the favorite again, and the ML is -270.

The Yankees and Twins have the superior starting pitcher, the better bullpen, and the better offense over the entire season, last month, and the previous two weeks. They both have home-field advantage and are coming off a loss. The systems all point to them, with no systems showing up on the other side. Let’s sweat out a half-unit parlay on America’s birthday.

The Pick: Yankees ML, Twins ML Two Team Parlay (+142) Risk 0.5 Units