Vladimir Guerrero Jr, we can be friends again. Last year, he cost me thousands, but he single handedly won our bet for us yesterday. We had Jack Flaherty under 17.5 pitching outs (+115), and he was cruising with a four-inning no-hitter. The fifth inning was a little bumpy, but we entered the sixth inning needing a miracle. Flaherty struck out the first two hitters, and almost all hope was gone. Then, Spencer Horowitz drew a walk on a long AB, and Vladdy walked to the plate. After a long AB, he hits a home run, and Flaherty is removed after recording 17 outs.

What a rush that was. Hopefully, these picks will be easier on our hearts, but produce the same winning result.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 84-86 (-5.90 U)

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Framber Valdez (3.66 ERA) vs. George Kirby (3.29 ERA)

We discovered George Kirby would be an elite pitcher on October 15, 2022. Game 3 of the ALDS against the Houston Astros, the Mariners were down 2-0 in the series. With the way Lance McCullers Jr pitched, they needed a Superman-type performance from the 24-year-old. Kirby did that, throwing seven shutout innings and taking only 92 pitches. The Mariners lost that game 1-0 in extras, but since then, Kirby has risen to the occasion against Houston.

We have Houston futures galore. We have faded the Mariners plenty of times; they are not a team I’m high on. That said, the Mariners are still a good team, and I don’t think they get swept. This is the game they win.

George Kirby’s numbers against the Houston Astros are incredible. Through 98 PA against the Astros’ current roster, he has a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 1% walk rate. 1%!!! That’s why I love backing Kirby here, especially against the Astros. This man attacks them; he is not afraid. He’s going in with his best, and I want in on the ride.

The quality of contact for Houston against Kirby is soft. It’s a .245 xwOBA with a .189 batting average. Considering the large sample, numbers against an opponent are similar to this. It also helps that the Astros offense is not firing on all cylinders. Since July, they have a 90 wRC+ against righties, ranking 20th in the league.

We also get Kirby in his preferred environment. He’s pitching at night at T-Mobile Park. That’s when Kirby elevates to new heights, posting a 2.63 ERA at home and a 2.88 ERA during night games. Kirby is probably glad he won’t have to see Kyle Tucker, as the Astros’ predominantly right-handed lineup has to go up against Kirby with a .558 OPS against right-handed bats.

So why am I not just backing Kirby? It’s a good question, and it may end up hurting us. If the Mariners can’t hit in this matchup, they might as well relocate to Triple-A. They have a matchup they’ve succeeded in before, and they came into the break on a great stretch against left-handed pitching.

Since July began, the Mariners have had the fifth-best offense against left-handed pitching with an incredible 156 wRC+, 56% better than the league average. Over the entire season, they have a 97 wRC+ against lefties, which is slightly below average but better than they are against righties (93 wRC+).

They’ve also had success against Framber. Through 203 PA, the Mariners are hitting .294. This isn’t past teams; this is the current roster. This Mariners squad has a .332 xwOBA with an average exit velocity of 92 MPH. These numbers are far worse than Kirby’s numbers against Houston.

The Mariners also own the bullpen advantage. They just got Gabe Speier back, an excellent left-handed reliever who can come in a prominent spot. Gregory Santos is also back, and he’s straight-up disgusting. After not going to critical arms yesterday, they also have every other high-leverage reliever ready. The Astros used their three horsemen; we know they have yet to be fun to back two days in a row.

The Mariners have a home field and a pitching advantage throughout the game. Knowing they have solid numbers against Framber and have been seeing lefties well lately, they should rebound after being shut out. I think Kirby goes crazy tonight, and the bullpen shuts the door. Take the Mariners to -135.

The Pick: Mariners ML (-125) Risk 1.25 Units

Player Prop

Jack Kochanowicz Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130) Risk 0.65 Units

I’ll be honest, this line made me laugh. This strikeout line is basically asking “is Jack Kochanowicz a big league pitcher?”

I say that because the matchup couldn’t be better for strikeouts. Kochanowicz primarily relies on a sinker and curveball, taking up 93% of his pitch mix. The A’s have the worst whiff rate against that combination from righties in the league. When you add changeups, his third most used pitch, the A’s have the worst whiff rate in the league by a more significant margin. Objectively speaking, this is the worst combination of pitches from a righty the A’s could face.

The A’s are striking out at the fourth-worst rate over the last 30 days and the second-worst rate against righties over the entire season.

The A’s are also coming off a 13-run performance, crushing Griffin Canning. The Angels right-hander only went three innings, allowed six runs, and finished with three strikeouts. The fact that he got demolished and still got close means there is plenty of upside here.

Canning has a 15.7% strikeout rate, or 6.22 K/9. When Kochanowicz first came up, he only recorded one strikeout, but he did post a 7.81 K/9 in Double-A over 91 innings. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but his curveball did garner a 27% whiff rate against the Mariners.

He’ll be pitching in a stadium at 20% capacity against a lineup that has proven to swing and miss far more than any other team in this mix. If he’s a big-league pitcher, he’ll go over this number. That’s why we limited the risk. He’s unproven, but no matchup gets better than this.