A nice 2-0 sweep before the All-Star break! We took the over in Milwaukee, which was a wild game. It looked like the easiest bet in the world when the Brewers put up five in the first inning, but they didn’t score another run after it. It took a CJ Abrams home run in the ninth to get us over the hill. We also took Dylan Cease over 7.5 strikeouts, which he quickly went over, finishing with 11.

During the All-Star break, we lost some tough longshots, which will be factored into the future total at the end of the season. The record posted below is solely for day-to-day game picks, but everything is factored in at the end of the year.

Today’s board is challenging. After a break, it’s a bit tougher to cap these games. However, I did find a player prop that is well worth the price.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 83-86 (-7.05 U)

Player Prop

Jack Flaherty Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+115) Risk 1 Unit

Jack Flaherty’s pitch count has been low lately, and there are a few reasons for it. The last time he threw over 100 pitches was on May 30th against the Red Sox. He threw four straight starts, not exceeding this number, then missed a start due to back tightness. He came back against the Guardians and threw six impressive innings, but he exited after throwing 83 pitches.

Flaherty’s name is routinely brought up on the trade block. The Tigers are projected to be sellers at the deadline, and Flaherty is the number one target for other teams. Skubal is higher on the list, but his price is enormous. Every contender needing starting pitching will be calling regardless of his performance today. The deadline is July 30th, and the last thing they want is Flaherty getting injured.

So, we have a pitcher who’s extremely likely to get traded and is dealing with recent back tightness. He has not gone over 100 pitches in a month and a half, and this is his second start since June 27th.

Since this is the first game off the All-Star break, the bullpen is entirely fresh. Detroit has Reece Olson going tomorrow, who can fill innings. Before we even look at the matchup, the first sign of trouble should give Flaherty a quick exit. Manager AJ Hinch can easily explain an early exit; the break allowed them to work his way back. Based on where he’s at, it’s ambitious to think he goes six innings today unless he dominates.

Can he dominate today? It’s possible, but the Blue Jays have seen him this year, knocking seven hits and three runs. Flaherty pitched deep into this game, going 6.1 innings, but that was back in May.

The Blue Jay’s better split is against righties; the team OPS is 40 points higher. In July, they faced some solid pitching, and in 13 games, pitchers went over six innings or more in six of those games. The Blue Jays battle at the plate; they see more pitches than the league-average offense. This often leads to higher pitch counts.

The Blue Jays match up well against this pitch mix. Against right-handers who throw fastballs, sliders, and knuckle curves, the Blue Jays have the same xwOBA as the Phillies and just above the Braves. They rank 16th, but the difference between 16 and the fifth-ranked spot is .323 to .329.

Flaherty has good numbers against the Blue Jays’ current roster, but two of the three starts against the Jays came last year. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see the point in putting much stock into that.

There is more than one way we can win this. If the Blue Jays can hit Flaherty around, he’s not going over. If he’s rusty after only throwing once in the last three weeks due to back tightness, his pitch count will elevate, and it will be tough to cover six innings. He could even be cruising and get a quick yank if he’s near 85 pitches. We tip our cap if he dominates and keeps the pitch count low.

In summary, here’s a few bullet points of why I’m on this prop:

• One start in three weeks, missed a start on July 3rd due to back tightness (potential rust).

• On the trade block, no reason to push him long.

• Blue Jays have already seen him, and recorded seven hits and three runs in a large pitcher’s park in Comerica.

• Blue Jays are above average in xwOBA against his pitch mix.

• They rested the bullpen after the All-Star break, and the pitcher making tomorrow’s start has a good history of going long into games to give the bullpen a break if needed.

• He hasn’t exceeded 100 pitches in five straight starts and has been under this number in four of his last five starts.

• In July, starters against the Blue Jays are over this line in six of 13 games (46%)

I priced this prop at -120 towards the under, so I’ll gladly play this down to +100. If it does move beyond that, I would lower the risk, but it is playable to -115.