Coming off a sweep! We had two totals on Wednesday, and both cashed with relative ease. We also hit our second MLB Future, cashing the A’s win total over for two units.

Futures are not factored into the record you see posted daily, but it is nice to gain seven units on futures so far. Technically, we are positive on the year after that cashed, but the daily bets are not in the green yet.

Apologies for no picks yesterday; I did not like anything on that board. I only give you plays I’m confident enough to bet on, and I have two for you today. We are on a 10-4 MLB run; let’s make that 12-4.

If anyone is interested in my NFL Futures (+35.25 Units in 2023), click here.

2024 Record: 109-111 (-5.76 U)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Bailey Falter (4.43 ERA) vs. Ben Lively (3.62 ERA)

The weather calls for runs at Progressive Field, but I can’t fade this Guardians bullpen, who had an off-day to rest up for this one. Ben Lively is also solid, and while he likely gives up a few runs, it’s the Guardians bats we are focusing on today.

Bailey Falter is below average in just about everything. His xERA is above five, and his SIERA is 4.86, implying that overall regression is looming for the southpaw. We don’t need the peripherals to tell us that; he’s below average in strikeout and Hard-Hit rate. He also doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, and 50% of his pitches are 91-92 MPH fastballs.

The Guardians have been on a bit of a slate over the past few months, but one area where the bats have excelled is against left-handed pitching at home. They have a 116 wRC+ in this spot which is the eighth hight mark this season. They also have the fifth highest ISO, meaning they’ve really tapped into power as well.

Falter is a fly ball pitcher walking into a ballpark with the eighth-highest park factor for home runs this year. We’ve talked about this park so many times this year. The wind tunnel has balls exiting Progressive Field at a higher rate than ever due to the new renovations this offseason. The Guardians have proved they can hit for power in spots like these, and Falter is an ideal candidate to face in these conditions.

Especially when the wind is blowing out to left field, all the righties in Cleveland’s lineup are live to hit one over the left field wall (Jose Ramirez, Jhokensy Noel, David Fry, Lane Thomas—I’m looking at you).

The Pirates have a horrific bullpen. They rank 29th in ERA at 5.63 since August 1st, and they rank 27th in ERA among 30 teams over the entire season. They just got throttled by the Cubs, so while they did have a day off, they had plenty of use over the past few days. I have zero faith in any arm back there.

I’m projecting three runs allowed by Falter and three by the bullpen. If you feel confident in the Pirates’ bats, you can pivot to the full game over, but I’m much more confident that Cleveland is leading the scoring today. Take this to -125, or you can pivot to 5.5 at plus money.

The Pick: Guardians Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) Risk 1.15 Units

Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Albert Suarez (3.18 ERA) vs. Austin Gomber (4.70 ERA)

Pulling back the curtain on this. I was breaking down every game like usual and wrote down the Rockies as a play I would be on. I thought waiting would be a good idea because I saw a colossal amount of money on the Orioles. After I finished up the games, I went to bet the Rockies at +140, and as I was placing it, it plummeted to +125. That price was still in my range to bet it, but that was pretty wild, so I wanted to share—tons of reverse line movement.

That reverse line move didn’t happen for no reason. We must back the lowly Rockies in this spot against the Orioles. Scary, I know, but historically, this is the best spot the Rockies could have. They got to play four straight games at home and are completely used to the altitude. Not only do the Orioles rarely play at Coors Field, they won’t have an off-day to adjust.

The Rockies, playing a team out of the division at home when the team made the playoffs last year, are 49-33 with a 60% win percentage and a 27% ROI. That’s absurd, and they are almost always underdogs in spots like these. Based on that system alone, it’s nearly an autoplay on Colorado.

There are so many more systems. In game one of the series, where a team is traveling into Coors Field, the Rockies are 274-224 (55%), and just this season, they are 13-7 in these spots for a 57% ROI.

This is the spot to take the Rockies blindly. However, we don’t take systems blindly over here, it has to make sense, and it does here.

The Orioles have the third-best wRC+ against lefties this season. However, they last had Jordan Westburg a while ago, and Ryan Mountcastle just hit the IL. Those are two righties that excel against left-handers. Since August began, the Orioles have a 107 wRC+ and a .725 OPS, which ranks outside the top ten. Over the last two weeks, they have a .654 OPS and an 87 wRC+, which ranks 18th and 19th, respectively.

Is Austin Gomber any good? Not really, but he’s been better at Coors than he is on the road (4.42 ERA vs. 4.89 ERA), and he’s been much better in night games (3.90 ERA vs. 5.98 ERA). We’ll have to pitch around Austin Slater as he has a ton of success against Gomber, but the other righties he’s seen, Emmanuel Rivera and James McCann, are a combined 2-12 against Gomber. The rest of the lineup hasn’t seen him, so it will be mostly young hitters who have little to no experience at Coors facing a pitcher for the first time. I see the Orioles lineup struggling today relative to expectations.

The Rockies can hit righties at home, and the last time Albert Suarez pitched in Coors Field was in 2017. Over the previous two weeks against righties at home, Colorado has an incredible .874 OPS, ranking fourth in the league. Since August began, they have had a .816 OPS. Over the entire season, they have a .781 OPS, the fifth-best in the game.

The Rockies bullpen is terrible, and I’m not sugarcoating here. Since July 1st, they have had a 5.50 ERA, and since August 1st, they have had a 5.90 ERA. I was going to go for the first five, but the Orioles bullpen is almost as bad, and they don’t have the excuse for playing at altitude. Since July 1st, the Orioles have a 4.74 ERA, ranking 25th. Since August 1st, they have a 4.64 ERA, ranking 21st. Good luck at altitude after a hard-fought series against the Dodgers.

I priced the Rockies at +105. Based on value, this should be a more significant play, but the Rockies are a very bad team, so variance has to be factored in. All that to say, I’m playing the Rockies down to +115.

The Pick: Rockies ML (+125) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.