Took the day off of baseball yesterday for a pre-season pick and that didn’t go according to plan. A million excuses why it didn’t hit, but that’s just pre-season football. I knew the risks, and it just didn’t go our way.

I’m back on the diamond today for a play I like, so I increased the risk to a 1.5-unit play. We are 5-1 on these more significant plays; let’s go for 6-1.

2024 Record: 100-106 (-9.41 U)

Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Michael Lorenzen (3.79 ERA) vs. Nick Martinez (3.16 ERA)

The Reds bats are hot; we’ve taken advantage of that over the past few days. I won’t stop now, especially with a matchup against Michael Lorenzen. Nick Martinez has been impressive, and I prefer the Reds bullpen to the Royals’ bullpen. With the Royals’ drastic home-road splits, we are backing the Reds on a larger play than usual.

Lorenzen is nearly a carbon copy matchup to that of Kyle Gibson. They’ll see different variations of fastballs with below-average breaking balls. Lorenzen throws a bit harder than Gibson, but the Cardinals righty has better command and a higher strikeout rate. While Lorenzen’s ERA is better than Gibson’s, the xERA’s are similar, with Lorenzon sitting at 4.75 and Gibson at 4.95.

Lorenzen is also due to allow some home runs, as his xFIP and FIP are both over five. He also struggles against right-handed bats, so I’d expect players like Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer, and Noelvi Marte to lead the offense today.

The Reds saw Lorenzen this year as a member of the Rangers, scoring five runs in six innings against him. That was back in April, but at that point in the season, the Reds started slow, putting up an 81 wRC+, ranked 24th in the league. They still blasted Lorenzen, and now that the bats are hot, I see no reason why they can’t replicate that performance.

The Reds have a .753 OPS against right-handed pitching at home this season, while the Royals have a .665 OPS against right-handed pitching on the road. The Royals have a .798 OPS against righties at home this year; the offense drops off a cliff on the road.

Nick Martinez will take the mound for the Reds, a pitcher that’s been rolling lately. He’s been up and down from the bullpen, but in August so far, he’s only allowed one run in 13 innings with just seven hits allowed.

Martinez’s main secondaries are his cutter and changeup, and the Royals rank 17th against those two offerings among 30 teams. If I’m Martinez, I’m spamming cutters all day, as the Royals rank second to last against right-handed cutters in xwOBA.

Martinez’s underlying metrics are even better than I thought, and I knew they were good. He’s rocking a 2.91 xERA, which puts him in the 90th percentile in baseball. His 2.7% walk rate is tied with Zach Eflin for the best mark in Major League Baseball, and his 29.6% Hard-Hit rate is lower than Emmanuel Clase and is only trailing Chris Sale, Blake Snell, and Kyle Bradish among all starting pitchers.

My favorite ERA predictor, SIERA, has these two starters on completely different levels. Martinez has a 3.58 SIERA, while Lorenzen has a 5.12 SIERA. The Reds have the better matchup on offense, and in general, I prefer Martinez on a neutral playing field.

Looking at the bullpens, the Reds’ advantages continue to mount. The Reds have the fourth-best bullpen ERA, fifth-best FIP, and tenth-best XFIP this season. Compare that to the Royals at 25th in ERA, 23rd in FIP, and 26th in xFIP. The Royals added at the deadline because they knew the bullpen was the weakness, but the best one they got, Hunter Harvey, is on the IL.

We are also backing the much hotter team. The Reds have won four in a row and seven of their last ten games. The Royals have lost six of their last ten games and are 28-30 in road games this year.

The Reds hold every advantage in this game. They have the better starter, better offense in this spot, and the better bullpen.

The Pick: Reds ML (-135) Risk 1.5 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500