We needed that sweep. Looks like the changes I made are here to stay. Always trust your gut.

It was sweaty during the afternoon. Ronel Blanco stayed under 5.5 strikeouts, even though he went out for the sixth inning with five strikeouts. He pitched outstanding again, which is something to monitor, but we sneaked out of it with a win.

The Phillies game was challenging to watch. They got an early 2-1 lead, but Oneil Cruz hit a rocket the opposite way for the 3-2 lead. However, I felt the momentum change once I saw Aroldis Chapman coming in for his second game in a row. Alec Bohm tied it up, and the Phillies ultimately won it courtesy of Nick Castellanos.

We ended our night with a no-sweat winner in Arizona. The Cardinals left some men on base, but after the snakes got their 4-1 lead, they cruised to the win.

A sweep is fantastic, but we have much more work. I liked a few picks today, but this was the only one my gut felt confident about. This is a 2022 special; let’s go to the toilet bowl.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 20-25 (-6.37 U)

Washington Nationals vs. Oakland A’s @ 4:07 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Trevor Williams vs. Alex Wood

Believe it or not, this series has been one that I’ve been paying attention to. I’m always intrigued by some bottom-of-the-barrel teams facing off, but one of these teams is better. They’re better overall and hit the ball harder this series, and they are the home team.

This line immediately shot out at me. The favorite in this series is 2-0; the sportsbooks tell you who should win each game. Paul Blackburn was the superior pitcher in game one as the favorite and the A’s won. MacKenzie Gore was the favorite in game two (a better pitcher), and the Nationals won. This starting pitching matchup is a toss-up, and the A’s are as big of favorites as they were with Blackburn.

This isn’t one of those “conspiracy” lines. I’m not simply line reading. I agree with the sportsbook assessment of this game; the A’s should win this game.

Don’t be fooled by Trevor Williams’ 2.16 ERA to start the season. We know who he is. He hasn’t made any pitch arsenal tweaks, and his velocity and spin rate remain unchanged. He’s actually throwing slower than last year. He’s still the same pitcher who put up a 5.55 ERA last year. He’s just pitched well against the Giants and Pirates. Good for him.

He’s facing an A’s lineup with an 80 wRC+ against righties. I’m not telling you they are any good, but they did destroy Williams last year for five runs in four innings.

Also, I found this out after I bet A’s ML. Did you know Williams put up a 6.83 ERA during the day last year? It could end up not mattering; I just thought it was funny.

Behind Williams is a bullpen that isn’t set up well for this one. All of their best relievers have thrown twice in this series except for Derek Law, who also threw yesterday. They also have a series against the Dodgers, so I’m interested to see what relievers they go with following Williams. I don’t think it will be pretty.

Alex Wood lines up for the A’s. We also know who he is. Like Williams, he’s a back-of-the-rotation starter who can be effective on any given day. He’s put up an 8.03 ERA this year, but he isn’t that bad. There is no change in his pitch arsenal or a velocity/spin difference. He’s the same guy who put up a 4.33 ERA last year.

He had rough starts against the Guardians, Rangers, and Red Sox. He pitched fine against the Rangers and Red Sox but was destroyed by the Guardians.

The Nationals not only have the lowest Hard-Hit rate of any teams in a weekend series so far, they have a 48 wRC+ against lefties this season. Only the Marlins are worse so far.

Wait to look, but the A’s bullpen has a 2.64 ERA. I told you it would be an improved unit when we took the over on their win total! They have everyone available after swingman Kyle Muller took three innings yesterday. Watch some Mason Miller highlights to get you pumped for this game.

I prefer the A’s bullpen and offense. Alex Wood and Trevor Williams are a wash. The A’s are at home coming off a loss. The better team should win this series.

I assume everyone will click the Nationals button because they are an underdog against the “lowly A’s.” Especially when they see the ERA differences between these two pitchers at the start of the year. My gut says those people get their lunch money taken away as the A’s win and maybe even cover the run line.

The Pick: Oakland A’s ML (-125) Risk 1 Unit

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